Saturday 29th August 2020: Benbatl to Win the War on Comeback

This week is somewhat of a “calm before the storm” scenario, given that the next two weekends encompass the rearranged Kentucky Derby and the St Leger at Doncaster.

That said, despite the lack of Group 1 action in Britain there are some flashy types on show and we are banking on their class to bring us some profit at Newmarket, Goodwood and Windsor.

12.20 Newmarket (Nursery Handicap) – LOST IN SPACE

The opening race at HQ is a tight little seven-furlong nursery, one in which on paper several have a winning chance.

At the bottom of the weights In Paradise is one of three entries on the card for Richard Fahey, and while she appears to be well enough handicapped, she may just lack a little bit of class.

Godolphin’s Last Sunset is interesting, but she’s done her work so far on the Polytrack at Kempton and one can never be sure of how that form will transfer to the turf.

John Gosden’s Lost In Space however was a very cosy winner last time at Lingfield and should see this out well.  Cieren Fallon’s mount for his new retainer as second jockey to Qatar Racing has the unique benefit of being ahead of the handicapper, and yet having more experience than all bar one in this field.  Huge chance.

1.50 Goodwood (Prestige Stakes – Group 3) – POMELO

The Prestige is often a very good stepping stone for a Group 1 type, and the one filly in the line-up who looks like making it to the very top is Pomelo of Ralph Beckett’s yard.

A very easy winner on debut at Newbury, she recorded a performance that few would beat in a given year for a first time out run and it was obvious from the off that connections believe she is a Group One type.

By Dubawi, should Harry Bentley’s mount score here in good enough style she will be given skinny quotes for next season’s 1000 Guineas and while that is far from certain at this stage, it does go to show what sort of filly we are dealing with here.

Chief opposition comes from last week’s valuable sales winner Happy Romance.  In taking the £89,000 first prize at York, Richard Hannon’s girl took her prize money up to £177,000 already but that has served to somewhat elevate unnecessarily her reputation in my opinion.

She’s good, but whether she can be as explosive over seven furlongs and beat a potential top-notcher who has been given 41 days to strengthen and improve remains a doubt.

2.05 Newmarket (Hopeful Stakes – Listed Race) – JASH

A solid six-furlong sprint race at Listed level, this is one in which plenty is expected of the six-year-old Summerghand who actually achieved a career best last time out when winning the Stewards’ Cup for David O’Meara.

He is good, there’s no doubt there, but in these specific race conditions I cannot see him being at his very peak and that lets in one or two, notably Sunday Star and Jash.

Sunday Star is an improving filly of Ed Walker’s who holds every chance, though may not quite see out this particular six furlongs as well as hoped, while Jash was once considered top class and may yet reach that level once more.

A close second to the brilliant Ten Sovereigns in the Middle Park two years ago, he returned last season with a win but got injured and missed a chunk of his career.  He simply blew up on his return after a breathing operation at Newcastle earlier in the month and more is expected of him now, Jim Crowley choosing the one-time 118-rated horse ahead of Shabaaby and he looks a tempting price.

2.40 Windsor (August Stakes – Listed Race) – ALOUNAK

There is also a Group 3 race on this card, but the one throwing up a betting opportunity is this Listed affair in which David Simcock’s Desert Encounter looks likely to go off favourite.

The eight-year-old is certainly very solid, but in these conditions (with some juice in the ground) and at this age he will almost certainly not be at his best which leaves him more than a little vulnerable.

Hughie Morrison’s Le Don De Vie is one who could challenge him, but if returning to something near his best it should be Andrew Balding’s Alounak putting his best foot forward.

A German import for King Power Racing, Alounak has run just OK on faster ground but a repeat of his second to Fanny Logan at Ascot would be more than enough to take this.

3.35 Goodwood (Celebration Mile – Group 2) – BENBATL

The feature race, while competitive enough, may turn out to be a battle up the home stretch between Regal Reality and the returning Benbatl.

Both high quality, the former came right back to himself for Sir Michael Stoute last time when hosing up in the Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury.  A repeat of that is not guaranteed on ground perhaps a little juicier than ideal, so even in receipt of weight he may not be a match for the excellent Benbatl.

A versatile type, Benbatl was outstanding on the dirt in Dubai before finishing an excellent third to Maximum Security in the Saudi Cup, but he hammered King Of Comedy over a mile on the turf at Newmarket last season and was second to Winx in Australia before that.  A genuine Group One type.

Friday 21st & Saturday 22nd August 2020: The Only Way is Up for Yazaman at York

There are still two more days of top class racing to go at York during the Ebor meeting, and it may pay to take a good look at Jim Crowley’s rides for Sheikh Hamdan on Friday.

Alfaatik, Enbihaar, Minzaal, Tawleed, Asiaaf and of course Battaash all have genuine winning chances, and I like two of them myself at the prices.  There are also a couple of fair bets on Saturday afternoon.

Friday 21st August 2020

1.45 York (Handicap) – ALFAATIK

Friday’s opener is a competitive handicap, at least on paper, however when taking a closer look at the contenders it became clear to me that there are a few who cannot be guaranteed to run up to their mark.

Dark Jedi, Zabeel Champion and Restorer are probably the best of the challengers, but none look particularly well handicapped.

The returning Alfaatik of John Gosden’s yard however was expected to have reached a mark of anywhere between 100 and 110 when he went wrong as a three-year-old, so now he’s been put back together and given how well the yard can prepare them after a break he looks particularly well in now off 94.

2.15 York (Lonsdale Cup – Group 2) – ENBIHAAR

We should hope against hope that this race is run on turf as it looks on paper, as so many of them are of such a broadly similar ability.

Nayef Road, Dashing Willoughby, Eagles By Day and Enbihaar are all potentially very close and if the race is run that way, the mare’s allowance received by the selection should be the deciding factor.

A winner of three Group 2’s this time last year, the five-year-old was back to near her best at Goodwood last time out and there is plenty of hope that she will handle this extra couple of furlongs, especially on a flat track.

Any further drying out overnight would be appreciated and some sun on Friday afternoon would definitely do the trick for Jim Crowley’s mount, so do keep an eye on the weather.

2.45 York (Gimcrack Stakes – Group 2) – YAZAMAN

A decent Gimcrack without being a classic on paper, but one in which the favourite may have been strangely overestimated.

Nowhere else will you read about improvement in horses more than right here, and so ordinarily I would be on board with Minzaal being the rightful favourite after his impressive debut win at Salisbury.

A closer look though reveals that, while he did nothing wrong and he pulled nicely away from his field, that field was decidedly weak and so while a Listed race may have been without his grasp, he perhaps just shouldn’t be favourite for a Group 2 just yet.

One overpriced runner who has a strong place chance is Andrew Balding’s Mystery Smiles, while Youbettabelieveit remains solid enough.

One who’s been worth watching all year though is William Haggas’ Yazaman and he may just have been slightly overlooked here at the odds.

A winner on debut at Yarmouth, he did extremely well at Royal Ascot from completely the wrong side of the track to almost get to Tactical, while the step up in trip at that stage with juice in the ground may not have been to his liking when he was just touched off again by the same horse at Newmarket in the July Stakes.

Finishing second to Supremacy in the Richmond, Yazaman has plenty of Group 2 form already and arguably he could have won more than one of them.  He is the strongest proven horse in the line-up by some way and so is overpriced at around 5/1.

Saturday 22nd August 2020

4.10 York (Roses Stakes – Listed Race) – BEN MACDUI

On a flat track such as this, over five furlongs and on a warm day this race should be all about speed and so with that in mind, the one to concentrate on should be Ben Macdui.

Others in the line-up have fairly solid form, including Politics, Acklam Express and Lauded should the latter not take up his engagement in the Gimcrack, however Kevin Ryan’s runner looks a cut above at least at this stage.

A winner on debut at Hamilton, he took a huge step forward and proved that he was all about pace when finishing a fine second to the well-backed Steel Bull in the Group 2 Molecomb Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and there is little reason to think he’ll go backwards here.

Kevin Stott once again takes the ride, a jockey doing particularly well recently, with the hope being that he will sit close to the pace once again before pouncing in the final furlong and a half or so.

4.40 York (Handicap) – CAPE CAVALLI

This is a really good-looking mile-and-a-quarter handicap, one that much like our first covered race on the column looks competitive at a glance but slightly less so when digging into the field a little.

Maydanny was incredibly impressive last time, but an 11lb rise for Mark Johnston’s horse seems a little harsh to be honest.

Fifth Position remains solid in these handicap races but is handicapped more or less correctly for me, while likely favourite Sinjaari is a last time out winner over this course and distance.

The latter has been put up 8lbs, and considering the type of race it was he is sure to have had to put it all in to win that day and so the likelihood of lots of improvement coming now seems less likely than first thought.

The two to concentrate on more are likely to be Sir Michael Stoute’s Derevo and Simon & Ed Crisford’s Cape Cavalli.  Derevo is getting there slowly but surely, not unusual for one from this yard, and so while you can be sure he has a race like this in him you couldn’t say with certainty it will be this very event.

Cape Cavalli on the other hand won so well over this course and distance in July it seems certain he’ll put in another performance of note, one that should see him confirm he is better than his mark of 91.

Saturday 15th & Sunday 16th August 2020: Marple to Solve Handicap Puzzle

It’s another high-class weekend with Group 1 events taking place in France, Germany and the USA as old favourite Barney Roy looks to add to his enviable record.

Back on British soil Newbury takes centre stage and there is some great action planned, two of their races providing us with good value punts while Deauville must not be missed either.

Saturday 15th August 2020

1.50 Newbury (Denford Stakes – Listed Race) – DHAHABI

While the likes of Jumby and Saint Lawrence are decent, we can only hope this race becomes a duel between two very exciting prospects for the future in Guru and Dhahabi with the latter preferred.

Four weeks ago, John Gosden’s Guru made a most pleasing debut at Newbury when taking care of Sir Michael Stoute’s Derby entry Maximal over today’s seven furlongs.  That was a good race, but Guru looked straight forward enough and perhaps won’t have as much improvement in him as the selection.

Godolphin’s Dhahabi, a very expensive purchase and beautifully bred, also scored on debut at HQ.  This time the Frankel colt dwelt at the start and needed rousting along early, before showing good speed to hit the front in the style of a horse that will come on in leaps and bounds for the run.

3.25 Deauville (Prix de Lieurey – Group 3) – ALTHIQA

Over to France now where a chance can be taken on Charlie Appleby’s Althiqa.  Riding plans aren’t really much to go on for this stable over the weekend; William Buick happy to take one ride in Germany (he’s on Barney Roy in a Group 1) while James Doyle rides Dhahabi.

The fact Mikael Barzalona rides this filly then doesn’t tell us that much other than it certainly won’t hinder her chances.

Third in a Group 3 last time, she was a winner at Deauville the time before over seven furlongs and is improving enough to make us think that she can take car of Fooraat, Simeen and Cloak Of Spirits and what will hopefully be a nice price.

5.00 Newmarket (Handicap) – JANE MARPLE

Rarely does it work out so well, so caution is advised, but it could well be that there has been a total anomaly in the handicap mark given to John Gosden’s Jane Marple and at the time of writing it has not been spotted by the bookmakers.

Chucked in at around 4/1 on Friday, Jane Marple could be the one for money at HQ in her handicap debut given that she beat National Treasure last time and has been handed a mark of just 82.

That has been given to her by the assessor due apparently to the fact that the horse she beat is rated 81, however he outran that figure most likely with Jane Marple’s real performance that day worth around 85-88 in reality.

Given that she will almost certainly improve now on her third run, especially as a filly coming from this yard, a performance somewhere approaching the mid-90’s is possible now making her mark of 82 look incredibly generous.

Should she get the trip OK she looks very backable indeed, with Godolphin’s top-weight Expressionism next on the list just ahead of the in-form Believe In Love who is looking for a three-timer.

Sunday 16th August 2020

2.50 Deauville (Prix Jacques le Marois – Group 1) – PALACE PIER

A higher quality Group 1 race than the version Romanised won last year, and it seems likely the defending champ will be taken off his feet this time around.

Local hero Persian King has won his last two and rates a danger, however despite scoring in seven out of 10 career races has hasn’t shown lumps of improvement at any time and so it seems we now know his level.

That level is very similar to what we can expect from Aidan O’Brien’s Circus Maximus, though while his form this season is once again red hot, he always looks vulnerable to a real good one as he was when facing Mohaather at Goowood and it could be the case again with this Palace Pier.

John Gosden’s taking St James’s Palace Stakes winner looked top class at Royal Ascot, showed a terrific turn of foot in beating Pinatubo and has been left alone to recover and improve since.

The son of Kingman, the mount of Frankie Dettori who will now miss York next week due to the need for him to quarantine on return, looks every inch a mid-120’s horse at least and that sort of level makes him too good for the aforementioned rivals, along with Alpine Star.

3.35 Newbury (St Hugh’s Fillies’ Stakes – Listed Race) – MISS JINGLES

Once again we are backing potential over proven ability here, as Charlie Appleby’s Miss Jingles needs to prove that being rated 4lbs behind favourite Caroline Dale only serves to underestimate her current ability.

On the numbers, she doesn’t have a lot to fear anyway.  Miss Jingles has run one race less than her main rival and in terms of published speed figures she is already on a par with David Loughnane’s runner.  With more improvement likely from the slightly lighter-raced runner, those facts would actually have made James Doyle’s mount a fair favourite had the bookmakers installed her as such.

A closer look at the profiles of the big two however strengthens confidence even more.  Caroline Dale has done well to reach a mark of 98, but her two standout runs were at Ascot in Group company.  The finish at Ascot clearly suits this filly, especially considering she ran third in the Princess Margaret last time over six furlongs and it could be that this quicker five furlongs will not suit at all.

Miss Jingles on the other hand is a classic improving type.  An average debut was followed up by a decent win at Sandown, with another big step forward coming last time at Glorious Goodwood.

In a conditions event, the daughter of Exceed and Excel did well to get the better of the argument and she now looks a Group filly without any doubt.

Saturday 8th August 2020: Dani a Winner All Ova

There is some top action at Haydock Park this weekend, where short-priced favourite Veracious and Global Giant are rock-solid in the Dick Hern Stakes and Rose of Lancaster Stakes respectively.

However, in terms of grabbing some good value, we are concentrating on two races each from Ascot and Newmarket where the early odds offered by layers simply don’t seem to give enough credit to a quartet of horses who should go very well in the forecast fast conditions.

1.15 Ascot (Nursery Handicap) – LINE OF DEPARTURE

It could be an excellent start to the day for us, as long as Roger Varian’s experienced Line Of Departure can prove to be ahead well handicapped.

I do think that’s the case for the son of Mehmas, one who has been out four times already but hasn’t had an overly hard time.

He has close form with Alkumait, a good Glorious Goodwood winner who now looks like a Group horse, and his easy win last time in a small race made it appear that a mark of 79 would not be accurate so it appears he is ahead of the assessors.

Challenging him in the market should be Jadwal who also looks solid, with the two appearing to be clear of First Prophet and Et Tu Brute who has form with Jadwal from Newmarket.

2.25 Ascot (Handicap) – GAME PLAYER

The draw once again shouldn’t be an issue here on the straight course for this one-mile handicap, as only ten line up and not all have a winning chance.

Former Sheikh Hamdan horse Ejtilaab is perhaps overpriced while Shelir can go well again here for the David O’Meara yard.

The likely favourite is Godolphin’s Jalaad, trained by the resurgent Saeed bin Suroor.  A winner last time at York, he is no doubt in great form but the flat track there is different to what he’ll face here and he had to put in a proper shift to get the job done, meaning he doesn’t have loads in hand and his 5lb rise in the weights could be enough to anchor him.

The interesting one is the returning five-year-old of Roger Varian’s, Game Player.  Based on modern training techniques, Varian’s past and the horse’s own profile I’d have little worries about this son of Dark Angel being at his best after a long break.

If he is, then he has weight in hand here even off 95 based on his improving performances at Lingfield, Goodwood and Ayr last term, especially given that he was blocked in his run twice.

Assuming no traffic problems this time, we should see a mature horse quickly reaching his peak this summer and with that could come another win for Andrea Atzeni and this time at a very nice price.

3.20 Newmarket (Sweet Solera Stakes – Group 3) – DANILOVA

Off to the July Course at HQ now and a nice-looking renewal of the Sweet Solera.  It’s understandable that Richard Hannon’s first-time-out winner Fly Miss Helen is put up as favourite having been well backed to score from Sarsparilla at Newbury on debut.

The form of the race is OK, perhaps nothing special, and while it remains possible for Fly Miss Helen to improve we know that from this yard they can be fully ready first time out (this one was, hence the odds) meaning less progression to come than the price here would suggest.

Mark Johnston’s Dubai Fountain is solid after three runs but it is germane that she put up her best show on very different ground to this, while Setarhe could be a little behind the main trio.

The value in the race is Charlie Appleby’s Danilova who has a very bright future indeed.  Having been given a handicap mark she is rated 10lbs behind Dubai Fountain, however she is way better than that and could have hosed up in a nursery.

Instead she goes for this Group 3 and she has the capabilities to win it.  She’s an improver; not much was expected on debut at 6/1 against four rivals but she ran on nicely to separate Wedding Dance, since second in a Group 3 and rated around 100, and Nash Nasha who was an easy winner at Lingfield on Wednesday.

She beat a promising type of John Gosden’s called Senita just a week ago with the minimum of fuss and can take a big stride forward in this race before being aimed perhaps at the top level by the end of the year.

5.10 Newmarket (Handicap) – EMISSARY

A fair shout for a podium finish in The Derby, Hugo Palmer’s colt indeed took his chance at Epsom but like many he was ridden incorrectly in a very unsatisfactory race behind the admittedly good Serpentine.

I was very much of the opinion that the race he took part in at Goodwood before his Classic tilt was a good one and that he could reach at least the 110 sort of level, something backed up by the fact that his very narrow conqueror Khalifa Sat went on to finish second in the Derby and is now rated 111.

The son of Kingman, out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, gets in here off a mark of 98 and he is clearly ahead just now.  He’ll be a Group horse in good time and may well have too much in hand for this particular opposition.

The best of the rest may well be John Gosden’s Harrovian.  A three-time winner already, this four-year-old is still getting better and his jockey takes off a handy 7lbs, but that’s only a good thing if Oliver Stammers’ inexperience doesn’t count too much against him and he still has a lot of weight to carry round.

Cognac and Data Protection look best of the rest in this mile-and-a-quarter event but it would be no surprise to see Khalid Abdullah’s horse win this well under Harry Bentley before moving on and up over this trip, as well perhaps as 1½ miles.

Friday 31st July & Saturday 1st August 2020: Stoute to Have the Last Laafy at Goodwood

It’s been a terrific Glorious Goodwood this week.  And, while old-timers and nay-sayers will continuously take to social media to impress on is that somehow every horse in a previous era was better than what we see now, we truly witnessed a belter in the Sussex Stakes won by our favourite Mohaather.  He’s a proper miler.

Now we head into days four and five and there are more value bets to be had.  Look out on Saturday for where Godolphin’s priorities lie, and we have information on that below, while Sir Michael Stoute can finish the festival on a real high with one of his improving handicappers.

Friday 31st July 2020

2.15 Goodwood (Thoroughbred Stakes – Group 3) – TILSIT

It is ard to accurately handicap the main contenders in this decent event, Khaloosy because of his apparent liking for slower ground after an Ascot romp and My Oberon and Tilsit because of how easily they’ve beaten inferior opposition.

The one with the most potential though, and yet coming in as the biggest priced runner of the three, is indeed Charlie Hills’ horse.  True, Tilsit done his best work on Newcastle’s tapeta track so far but there’s every reason to believe he will love it round here and now has the assistance of Ryan Moore who will get every last inch out of him.

He won by the proverbial country mile at Gosforth Park last time out and while he was given a rating of 98, it really does seem that it underestimates him and he has further improvement to come.  Anything above 3/1 or so would represent value, though he may yet be a good deal bigger than that on Friday morning.

3.45 Goodwood (Glorious Stakes – Group 3) – ALOUNAK

Andrew Balding has a very interesting contender on his hands here for the rest of the season at around about this Group 3 level.

Alounak, trained previously in Germany, was bought by King Power and sent to Balding for this summer and it seems the change in routine will bring out the best in him.

The son of Camelot was consistent last season when winning at Group 3 level, finishing second to Desert Encounter in the Grade 1 Canadian International and then running a close fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (also Grade 1) to finish off the year.

Those last two runs were his 8th and 9th of the season though and if he’d been trained properly, he could well have achieved more.  Now with Balding, he’s run a good second behind Fanny Logan in the Hardwicke but probably wants this faster ground and is good value in the market.

The aforementioned Desert Encounter is next best, ahead of Pablo Escobarr and Communique who may just want it softer now but has great form.

Saturday 1st August 2020

1.00 Deauville (Prix du Carrousel – Listed Race) – GHOSTWATCH

It’s very hard to know at the time of writing what sort of price we should expect for Ghostwatch, given that while he travels and will be well-fancied he does indeed have competition this time in the shape of Alkuin, Ashrun and Time Shanakill.

After an injury ruled out Charlie Appleby’s gelding for around 20 months, he made a very underwhelming reappearance in June which made many think his racing days may already be over.

However, having been well backed at Newmarket the son of Dubawi ran a stormer in soft ground to finish second in a 1m6f handicap last time.  He’ll be fitter now, is heading in the right direction and will like this better ground.  He has a huge chance.

In behind the main danger could well be Alkuin who is on a four-timer, though it’s tough to know after a wide-margin win last time whether he really is that good or whether he’s simply been getting things his own way.

An important thing to keep in mind here in connection with Ghostwatch, and indeed Wedding Dance who has a big chance in a Group 3 on the same card, is that William Buick has chosen to stay at Newmarket instead of travelling to France to ride them, leaving that honour to James Doyle.

Be on the lookout then for any significant money at HQ for Danilova, Expressionism or Moonlight Spirit who are all ridden by Buick for Appleby and Godolphin.

2.25 Goodwood (Handicap) – LAAFY

Sir Michael Stoute, as we well know, is a dab hand at improving these four-year-old handicappers and in Laafy he has one that arguably should be coming into this race as a winner.

Last time out at Haydock, having already won easily at Newbury, the Noble Mission gelding seemed to dislike the very soft ground over the mile-and-a-half trip but stayed on nicely anyway to run a close second to Deja, another well-handicapped type.

Now going up to 1m6f, on much faster ground and having had four weeks off we should see a different Laafy and a new career best, something that will help him comfortably bely his mark of 101.

Improvement from Hochfeld is expected and he rates as the main danger, while Platitude and Indianapolis can go well but hopefully without landing a blow on the selection.

3.00 Goodwood (Lillie Langtry Stakes – Group 2) – ENBIHAAR

Enbihaar is a super mare, and while she may have occasionally been inconvenienced by softer than ideal going she has largely been very consistent.

In fact, John Gosden’s daughter of Redoute’s Choice improved enough last year to land a career best in this very contest, before going on to pretty much match it in the Park Hill Stakes.

She is arguably a Group 1 filly, if only there were enough opportunities at this trip for her, and has the advantage of wanting the trip over this ground unlike at least a couple of her rivals.

Enbihaar could be short in the betting on Saturday but is rock solid, with Ralph Beckett’s runner-up from last year Manuela De Vega expected to fill the same spot again ahead of Snow and Cabaletta.

Saturday 25th July 2020: Elar Can in York Stakes

It’s King George day at Ascot on Saturday, and many have expressed their vilification that even at the five-day stage only two trainers held entries for the midsummer showpiece.

Just three horses ultimately take on Enable, all from Aidan O’Brien’s yard and while it’s hoped the best horse wins, she is too short in the market considering the Ballydoyle plan is likely to box her in at the crucial stage.

As we approach Glorious Goodwood there is somewhat of a dearth of Pattern races, but some competitive handicaps are taking place, some top novices are due to run and at York the big Group 2 event can go to last year’s winner.  These four all look fair betting value: 

1.50 Ascot (Pat Eddery Stakes – Listed Race) – NAVAL CROWN

This is a decent Listed event for the juveniles, the type in which those who haven’t raced in Pattern company and yet hold a chance tend to be last time out winners but our selection is an exception to that.

Charlie Appleby’s Naval Crown was just third on his debut at Newmarket, while main rival Saint Lawrence was a decent fourth in the Superlative Stakes (Group 2) last time out.

The Superlative winner, Master Of The Seas, is just about the top rated two-year-old to have run as yet this season and so Saint Lawrence’s form is rock solid, and yet our horse ran to a very similar speed figure on debut  behind two horses with experience and would clearly have a lot more to give now coming out of novice company.

John Gosden brings Saeiqa here who ran third at Royal Ascot, while Woodcote Stakes winner Twaasol completes the shortlist but it’s hard to know just how much improvement these horses have in them now moving up to seven furlongs.  In any event, the unexposed son of Dubawi who gets the vote.

2.40 York (York Stakes – Group 2) – ELARQAM

This year’s York Stakes is a tight-looking Group 2 affair, all of the six other runners holding some sort of chance if the selection isn’t on top form.

However, Elarqam does have plenty in his favour.  Mark Johnston’s runner beat a few of these home in the Group 1 Juddmonte International over this course and distance last season, the best piece of form on offer by some way with his profile suggesting he can repeat or even better that yet.

He also has close form this term from Haydock with Lord North who has since been raised to a mark of 124 having taken the Prince of Wales’s Stakes in fine style, while the son of Frankel also won this race last season ahead of subsequent dual Group 1 winner Addeybb who had his ideal racing conditions that day.  He looks set fair for another massive run.

In behind things appear quite close.  Juddmonte International fifth Regal Reality of Sir Michael Stoute’s yard retains plenty of potential and could be booked for a place here, while Andrew Balding’s Fox Chairman can yet improve.

Last year’s Dante winner and conqueror of Too Darn Hot, Telecaster, makes his British return having won in France and could be dangerous while King Of Comedy has been rated high enough in the past to have won this, but hasn’t been at his best for some time.  A return to form could be on the cards for the Gosden colt.

3.00 Ascot (Handicap) – TSAR

It’s a shame prize money is so pathetically low in Britain at the moment, especially for races such as this one.

Run over Ascot’s straight mile, this handicap is for the three-year-olds only and there could well be one or two future Group performers in the field.

I reckon this race can be whittled down to three key runners, beginning with The Queen’s horse Evening Sun.  Trained by Roger Charlton, the son of Muhaarar was a good winner over seven furlongs at Newmarket last time at the third attempt, with huge improvement having come in between runs so far.

The one with arguably the strongest form so far is William Haggas’ Johan.  Having taken a huge step forward when winning first time up for the season at Newbury, the Zoffany colt announced himself as one with a decent future but his 8lb rise could prove to be a tad harsh for a horse who won narrowly, if fairly comfortably.

The one to side with all things considered though is likely to be John Gosden’s Tsar.  Only just coming to himself after four career runs spread over twelve months, the beautifully bred son of Kingman out of a 100+ rated King’s Best mare stepped up to score at Yarmouth last time in the style of a horse with a lot more to give.

He’s been raised 6lbs for that but frankly a handicap mark of 94 should be nowhere near reflective of his true ability and so he is taken to score under Frankie Dettori.

3.15 York (Handicap) – ELWAZIR

There could be some real value in this one-mile contest, at small stakes and/or if strong money comes in the morning for Owen Burrows’ Elwazir.  At the time of writing, the five-year-old is available at 12/1 in places and that looks crazy.

Elwazir was really going places a season or two ago, being aimed at Group 3 level and being expected to run to a mark of 110+ at least.  He is in this handicap off 103, had a pipe-opener after his gelding operation at Newmarket but is down in trip now, is much fitter and could well do himself justice.  The son of Frankel therefore is simply overpriced and is worth a nibble.

In behind things are close with the likes of Hartswood, Orbaan, Tadleel and Al Erayg all capable of landing blows.

Friday 17th & Saturday 18th July 2020: Dancing in the Moonlight at York

We can almost feel a little cheated that there isn’t a Group 1 being run in Britain for once this weekend after the headrush that has been this concertinaed season so far.

That said, it’s Irish Oaks day over at the Curragh on Saturday and in the States the Haskell Stakes can hand out very important Kentucky Derby clues with Bob Baffert’s Authentic on the comeback trail.  Indeed, he is my early fancy for the big one on September 5th.

We’re about trying to find good value betting options however and so with that in mind, these five appeal most beginning with two at Haydock’s Friday evening meeting.

Friday 17th July 2020

6.25 Haydock (Tapster Stakes – Listed Race) – EL MISK

We have some small fields at Haydock on Friday night including in this race, but the weather is set fair and conditions should be ideal for the always promising El Misk of John Gosden’s yard in this 1½-mile Listed event.

Seemingly always running in small fields, the son of Dansili has shown generally progressive form and there’s no reason his advancement should stop now with this race set-up looking ideal.  Rab Havlin travels to ride.

In behind things are tight; Ispolini isn’t at his best but remains a place threat, as does Trueshan while both Mountain Hunter and recent all-weather winner Alignak can also get involved at some stage.

6.55 Haydock (Conditions Stakes) – D’BAI

A fascinating conditions race featuring plenty who were initially aimed at Pattern races elsewhere.  The overall quality of the race is equal to a Listed or Group 3 event and while on private ratings it’s close, I’d say D’bai may prove best of them just ahead of Happy Power.

The betting, with Happy Power at the head of it, is shaped around the fact that several of these ran behind Space Blues over the course and distance last month, but D’bai needed the run there and did much better behind the same horse in France next time.

He’s a solid proposition for Charlie Appleby and he can get the better of the Balding horse, Mubtasim, Snazzy Jazzy and Ostilio.

Saturday 18th July 2020

1.55 York (Silver Cup – Group 3) – MOONLIGHT SPIRIT

While on official ratings Mark Johnston’s Communique comes out on top here and he’s obviously in great form, the 1m6f trip is a question mark for him and so seldom do runners from that stable put up their very best performance twice in a row.

David Simcock’s Universal Order is another in with a fair shout, but the one to concentrate on could be the horse Charlie Appleby clearly thinks can enter the proper staying ranks and challenge Stradivarius at some stage and that is Moonlight Spirit.

Second to Technician last season in a French Group 2 on ground that clearly suited his rival, he is progressing nicely and should be able to reach a new level now after the 2½-mile trip and the very soft ground in the Gold Cup at Ascot didn’t suit him last time on his first start since being gelded.

3.05 York (City Walls Stakes – Listed Race) – EQUILATERAL

Looking at the prices here, it may well simply have been forgotten that Equilateral ran second to Battaash over his favoured five-furlong trip two runs ago and he can prove to be the best of this bunch.

In chasing his stablemate home at Royal Ascot, many were surprised but readers of this column shouldn’t have been after he was recommended as an alternative to the very short-priced champion there.

Now bought from Khalid Abdulla by Fitri Hay, Charlie Hills’ five-year-old can actually still reach a career high this season and while that is not necessarily needed here, he may well achieve it anyway and that would of course be good enough under James Doyle.

Alpha Delphini, albeit coming off a long break, can also make his mark while Que Amoro still has a little way to go yet despite potentially going off favourite for this race.  Old favourites El Astronaute and Major Jumbo may prove to have just a little bit too much to do in what looks a pretty hot race for a Listed event.

4.00 Newbury (Hackwood Stakes – Group 3) – SHINE SO BRIGHT

If this race goes to a six-furlong specialist then it would naturally prove to be no surprise, however at the likely prices a chance can be taken on Andrew Balding’s Shine So Bright.

A generally progressive four-year-old, the son of Oasis Dream just went far too fast over seven furlongs last time at Epsom but still ran a solid race, making this event look just about ideal.

A Group 2 winner only last summer ahead of Laurens at York, a race of this nature is well within Shine So Bright’s compass and so it makes sense to me that retained rider Silvestre De Sousa chooses to come here rather than go to Haydock to ride the likes of Happy Power.

In what promises to be a fast-paced event, we can now see the very best of this animal.

Another improver is three-year-old Repartee of Kevin Ryan’s yard, though he may just find this race a little hot, while Tabdeed is also overpriced for Owen Burrows and should not be discounted.

Dakota Gold travels here instead of going over five furlongs at York, Mums Tipple is a total enigma and I cannot believe that at this stage and in these conditions The Tin Man and Judicial are being advertised as the top two in the market.