Saturday 27th February 2021: Gosden to Land Winter Derby Again

It’s Eider Chase, Winter Derby and Close Brothers Chase day on Saturday as the flat and National Hunt action comes at us thick and fast.

There are plenty of good value betting opportunities for us as we head to Lingfield, Kempton and even the USA in search of profit this weekend. We make an early start with one in the 11.45 at Lingfield, Ryan Moore looking once again to be the start of the show.

11.45 Lingfield (Handicap) – CONVERTIBLE 

Ryan Moore has been brilliant at Lingfield of late, despite his constant and unnecessary criticism in some quarters, and he has another strong book of rides once again on Saturday.

We’re backing him to make the perfect start on Hugo Palmer’s Convertible in the early mile-and-a-quarter handicap. Just a four-year-old, Convertible is still improving and ran a career best here under Moore last time out.

The gelding looks well capable of defying a rise in the weights, has easily the strongest speed figures and now gets standard going as opposed to standard-to-slow which will help him along from stall 3.

2.40 Lingfield (Winter Derby Stakes – Group 3) – FOREST OF DEAN

We have only a small field for this year’s Winter Derby, and it can once again go to the John Gosden team courtesy of their Forest Of Dean.

Off the track all of last season, the team retain plenty of faith in the now five-year-old who is in the care of Godolphin these days.

Just feeling his way back with two third-placed efforts, he is the strongest traveller of this bunch when at his best and has been prepared to peak now.

He’s good value to beat impressive handicap winner Father Of Jazz, Felix and Johnny Drama, and can prove he is up to this sort of class under Rab Havlin.

3.00 Kempton (Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 2) – CALICO

The top three in the market, Atholl Street, Calico and Cape Gentleman have only six runs between them at this point and all are capable of tons of improvement.

Atholl Street has been the one for money in the build-up to the weekend, however the one who has more to come on better ground is the Skelton five-year-old and so he represents the best value.

In winning on his hurdle debut at Ludlow last month Calico was almost as quick between the flights as Atholl Street was last time, so considering he had to do that on heavy ground it seems we can see the sort of performance on this surface that may well have this lot beaten off before they hit the last.

It may yet be significant that Emmet Mullins brings Cape Gentleman over from Ireland for this event and he too can go well, but there’s a lot to like about Calico and he gets the vote this time.

4.25 Newcastle (Handicap Chase) – ASCOT DE BRUYERE

This is a decent two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase featuring just the eight runners, and it seems the weather has turned out perfectly for James Ewart’s Ascot De Bruyere.

The ground was good when he won very impressively at Newcastle three months ago, so the fact that it has been sunny and a little windy all day on Friday on Tyneside the advertised good-to-soft may turn to just about the good going he had when winning over the track and trip.

He’s only gone up 7lbs for winning by miles, has had plenty of time to recover, is clearly on the improve and has the services of Brian Hughes up top. He seems like a very sound selection.

Seemorelights and Clan Legend look best of the rest, but a nice clean round of jumping should see Ascot De Bruyere go in at Gosforth Park once more.

10.58 Oaklawn Park (Southwest Stakes – Grade 3) – ESSENTIAL QUALITY

This is the delayed $750,000 Southwest Stakes in Arkansas, a key early Kentucky Derby prep race. Bad weather put paid to the latest showdown between Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior two weeks ago, but the delay may have helped in terms of their training and readiness for the season ahead.

There was dismay flying around from the Jackie’s Warrior camp that they didn’t win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last season, however regular readers will know how confident I was about Essential Quality that day in November and the Godolphin horse duly won in big style to become America’s champion two-year-old of 2020.

He has been a very worthy winter Kentucky Derby favourite and really should win this race too, though the presence of his old rival means he has been available at 6/5 here and has a morning line price of 6/4 in the States.

Just shop around to get the best odds you can on a horse who will have one more prep after this before heading to Churchill Downs on May 1st for his date with destiny.

Saturday February 20th 2021: Knicks Ready to Go Again in the Middle East

There are a number of crucial National Hunt prep races on Saturday, not least the Kingwell, the Rendlesham and the Grand National Trial.

On the flat, there are tens of millions of pounds up for grabs over in Saudi Arabia for Saudi Cup day and we have four solid selection from there as well as two more over the jumps.

1.00 Riyadh (Neom Turf Cup) – TILSIT

This is a fascinating conditions race over the extended mile-and-a-quarter, worth some £437,000 to the winner. The each-way value may be in the UAE-trained For The Top, however the class acts are Bill Mott’s Channel Maker and Charlie Hills’ Tilsit.

There is a lot to like about the latter, despite the wide draw. We successfully tipped him here at big odds in Group 3 company at Glorious Goodwood last summer, and personally I’ve thought he was heading to the top since I saw him demolish his field at Newcastle on his second start last June.

He is potentially top class for sure and he should be good enough to win this, Channel Maker being the big danger although the American horse tends to need the full mile-and-a-half to be seen to best effect.

1.35 Riyadh (stc 1351 Turf Sprint) – SPACE BLUES

Run over the seven furlongs, this race once again hands out more than £400k to the winning horse. There are some crack six and seven-furlong performers here, two of them trained by Charlie Appleby who could be in for a very successful day.

His Glorious Journey is rock-solid, a Group 2 winner and is match fit after a solid third in Dubai. His teammate however, Space Blues, is unsurprisingly the choice of William Buick and is the selection.

Space Blues can be brilliant on his day, his only negative being that he has often needed his first run of the year. There is no guarantee he will be undercooked though and, even being a few pounds under-par, he’d still be in with a big chance and the Group 1 winner can prove his class.

3.18 Wincanton (Kingwell Hurdle – Grade 2) – GOSHEN

We’re playing the numbers just a little bit here with potential superstar Goshen. He had famously taken apart his Triumph Hurdle field at the Cheltenham Festival last year before falling at the last, and hasn’t been seen to best effect since.

A beaten favourite twice on the flat before completely bombing out on his National Hunt seasonal reappearance, it is understandable at a glance that he has been overlooked by the layers for favouritism.

However, his flat form was solid and all horses are allowed one proper off day. Assuming there is not something a miss then, at these weights and somewhere near his best he would have plenty in hand and so even without knowing that for sure, at the odds published he is worth taking a chance on.

Goshen could still be the best in his division, while likely short-priced favourite Song For Someone is solid if unspectacular and Navajo Pass is the other one who makes the shortlist for place purposes.

4.10 Riyadh (Saudi Derby) – REBEL’S ROMANCE

Back to Riyadh we go, this time for the Saudi Derby. This is a one-mile race for the three-year-olds on the dirt and is worth a mental £656,000 to the winner.

We mentioned Charlie Appleby might have a great day and he was in among the winners at Meydan again on Thursday. This could be another winner for him in the shape of the impressive-looking Rebel’s Romance.

Three from three now, Rebel’s Romance looked great in winning at Newcastle and Kempton before opening his account at Meydan in January. He beat Mouheeb that day who has since gone on to beat Meshakel, in opposition here, and he did that much easier than the margin alone would demonstrate.

He is a better horse than the numbers suggest and, as a son of Dubawi, could stay further so a win here may put him in line for the UAE Derby – would they think about Kentucky thereafter?

I hope he can land this, with American-trained Cowan probably next best while Godolphin’s other runner, Soft Whisper, has a handy weight concession and can also land a blow for Saeed bin Suroor and excellent jockey Mike Smith.

4.25 Haydock (Prestige Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 2) – ALAPHILIPPE

It’s tight at the top of the market here, as it is at the top of the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle for which this is a trial, but one horse may just prove to be good value at this three-mile trip.

Alaphilippe, trained by Fergal O’Brien, was on a fine winning streak before being turned over at Taunton last time but he ran as though the 2m3f trip did not suit him at all. He can improve plenty from that, enough perhaps to beat Mint Condition while Young Buck was the other horse under consideration.

5.40 Riyadh (Saudi Cup) – KNICKS GO

Although this race isn’t graded yet, it’s a Group 1 in all but name despite the glaring omissions especially from the States.

Now the richest race in the world at £7.3million to the winner, it is very classy and while John Gosden’s Mishriff can get competitive, this could come down to the American runners.

The solid but perennially underperforming Tacitus can put up a decent each-way show once again, while most of the money across the pond is going the way of Bob Baffert’s Charlatan.

Last year’s Arkansas Derby winner (since disqualified) was at the head of the Kentucky Derby market at one stage, and while he could reach the same level as the likes of Maximum Security it has not been proven yet which makes his odds too short.

Step forward Knicks Go for the value. Five years old now and improving nicely, Knicks Go is trained by the brilliant Brad Cox and he landed a gamble to win the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in November. He followed that up with a rather easy Pegasus World Cup win over this 1m1f trip, and to my eye he is the best of this bunch.

Saturday 13th February 2021: Lord to Rule the Manor at Wolverhampton

Saturday’s jump racing has been completely decimated in Britain due to the extremely cold weather, Newbury moving to next weekend and Warwick hopefully now going ahead on Monday.

There are always betting opportunities however, as long as we play smart. Across the all-weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton (Lingfield needing to survive an inspection) as well as Laurel Park in the States, there is enough for us to take an interest.

To have a chance at a reasonable return, we keep stakes to a minimum and play the long game with these six selections: 

1.25 Lingfield (Fillies’ Novice Stakes) – MUMMY BEAR

We should be on the lookout for any significant money coming the way of Clive Cox’s newcomer Just Amber, but if she turns out to be nothing special them Mummy Bear is easily the most solid in the contest.

The key here is her improvement. She ran a rather below average debut when fifth at Chelmsford before bettering that with a runner-up effort here at Lingfield. She was 14/1 and 10/1 respectively and so nothing more was expected of her, but now she can move up another notch and will have the assistance of Ryan Moore up top.

Debut winner Rita The Cheetah is next best, while in this company the Cox team can expect a good run from Just Amber.

2.35 Lingfield (Handicap) – CRACKLING 

We’re on Ryan Moore again here, the top-class rider having been put up by Martyn Meade for owners Manton Park Racing on lightly-raced five-year-old gelding Crackling.

Again, improvement is the main factor here given that Crackling won on debut at Lingfield back in late 2018 before coming back from injury to run fourth at Kempton and second at Southwell, getting better each time.

Back on the surface at which he excelled on his first run, Crackling can now kick on and so considering he is already at the requisite level to be able to go close in this company, another step forward should definitely get the job done.

On form he has last-time-out winner Accomplice, Luke Morris’ mount Apex King and 1¼-mile Lingfield scorer Noble Peace to beat.

5.45 Wolverhampton (Handicap) – ARAFI 

Another very solid form proposition and, like Mummy Bear one from the Richard Hannon yard, is the filly Arafi who runs in this seven-furlong handicap.

Well bred, Arafi hasn’t hit the heights as of yet in eight starts but is getting better and has certainly shown some versatility. A good second on good-to-firm ground at Salisbury last year, she returned there to win on softer going before taking a break and landing another race on Kempton’s all-weather track a week ago.

She is being turned out quickly and there is good reason for that. She is in flying form, is not badly treated by the handicapper and looks likely to have a couple of pounds in hand.

Mark Johnston has Love Destiny in this who also won two in a row and could easily bounce back after defeat last time, while Mark Loughnane’s ultra-consistent Critical Thinking is another in with an obvious chance.

7.15 Wolverhampton (Handicap) – LORD RIDDIFORD

The best race on the card is this Class 2, five-furlong sprint handicap. Short in the betting after winning last time is Tone The Barone and he will have a major say in this, while David Barron’s Venturous is on a hat-trick.

The overpriced one in the event however is John Quinn’s Lord Riddiford. His price, around 5/1 at the time of writing, is based principally on his unseating Jason Hart at Chelmsford last time when he was a short 10/3 shot to win a similar race to this.

Before that he was showing continuous improvement, winning and finishing a good second over this course and distance, and so now with Hart sitting tight he can really make his presence felt.

As well as the six-year-old’s overall form remaining solid, Lord Riddiford’s time figures are amazingly consistent and so he looks guaranteed to run his race.

7.45 Wolverhampton (Handicap) – CITYZEN SERG

In Richard Hannon’s Cityzen Serg we have a strangely similar scenario to that of Lord Riddiford. A classy four-year-old for Middleham Park Racing who has now reached a mark of 87, this son of Raven’s Pass won three from four at this track between November and January and did not look finished.

A strong fancy on Newcastle’s Tapeta last time, he ran way too freely and bombed out, finishing stone last which has led to him being overpriced and under bet for this race. He should have got over that now and if back to his best, remains well handicapped to score.

Cityzen Serg’s main rivals appear to be likely favourite Arij, a consistent type but one who is overrated in the market given that he has been getting beaten and is no better handicapped than our horse, as well as David Loughnane’s last-time-out scorer Dark Pine.

8.53 Laurel Park (General George Stakes – Grade 3) – SHARE THE RIDE

We’ll dip just the one toe into Maryland on Saturday night (although we’ll be back in May), to have a small bet in this $250,000 Grade 3 race at Laurel Park.

Laki still possesses some quality and is fancied by many for this race, but at 8 he is not getting any better. Indeed, his ratings are steadily decreasing and to be honest there is no reason to think he’ll suddenly reverse that here. He also gives away 2lbs to the rest of the field.

Better placed to run well may be the five-year-old Funny Guy. Consistent if not prolific, he has been running well at Aqueduct but has had the assistance of Joel Rosario until now.

The one to perhaps show them both up is the six-year-old Kentucky-bred, Share The Ride. Improving lately in terms of both his overall rating and his speed figures, Share The Ride just keeps getting better despite his age and switching stables, his morning line price of 3/1 looking more than fair.

Saturday 6th February 2021: Bristol to Lay Down Gold Cup Claims

It’s a huge racing weekend for Leopardstown who host the Dublin Racing Festival, and we have a solid selection from of their events to complement a Grade One pick at Sandown and some good value flat selections too.

1.11 Lingfield (Kachy Stakes – Listed Race) – MISTY GREY

This is the first running of the Kachy Stakes, a race named after the four-time Lingfield winner trained to such good effect by Tom Dascombe and ridden by Richard Kingscote.

The same trainer/jockey combination could yet win his inaugural race too. Their Misty Grey, coming here on the back of a hat-trick, has likely been laid out for this contest but the gelding’s form entitles him to have a strong shout anyway.

True, his wins have come on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton, but having made a good all-weather debut over a mile at Kempton and then been successful over seven furlongs, he seems to be getting quicker and we know Dascombe can trainer them for speed. Aberama Gold, Tinto and Summerghand also made the list.

1.45 Lingfield (Winter Derby Trial Stakes – Listed Race) – FOREST OF DEAN

John Gosden knows this division very well having secured second place in it last year with Court House, before going on to train the first two home in the Winter Derby itself.

His Forest Of Dean, now in the Godolphin colours, won two competitive handicaps on the turf in 2019 when owned by Princess Haya and was very much going the right way before taking an injury.

After 16 months off he made a very satisfactory return in January when third of four at Wolverhampton behind today’s rivals Felix and Bangkok (beaten only a length), and it is thought that much like the 2020 Winter Derby winner Dubai Warrior he can go on to become a group performer.

He should be able to improve past his two old rivals now, while Red Verdon can also make his mark on this surface. Rab Havlin rides.

1.50 Sandown (Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase – Grade 1) – HITMAN

Another good renewal of this top-quality novice event, one in which we could see a performance from Hitman that may put him right in the running for Cheltenham Festival honours next month.

Paul Nicholls’ five-year-old is the youngest of the main contenders and while on its own that isn’t always a good thing, he has looked tough enough in his two chase races to date.

After winning ever so easily on soft ground on his debut over fences as a 3/1 shot, he ran a cracker in the Henry VIII here at Sandown to finish second to Allmankind. With that experience behind him he should be that bit closer to Grade 1 form, he was staying on there which is a good sign for this step up in trip and he’s in the right hands.

Not far behind on my ratings in the conditions is Shan Blue for the Skelton’s who is on a four-timer, while Messire Des Obeaux and Dame De Compagnie may yet hit the heights.

2.16 Lingfield (Handicap) – SYMBOLIC POWER

It’s a little irregular to see a Charlie Appleby horse in a Class 4 handicap and at the time of writing it’s unclear what sort of price we can expect about this Symbolic Power, but he is a very solid proposition.

While the others, even last-time-out winners Coupe De Champagne and Swinton Noon, look handicapped to near their best, Symbolic Power’s rating of 82 at the top of the weights appears to underestimate him.

Charlie Appleby and Godolphin had a quieter time with their juveniles last season, largely owing to the change in schedule, and it’s expected that they will have plenty of three-year-olds now being described as dark horses.

This horse won’t necessarily go on to become a group performer but he’s coming along nicely, handles this track and looks likely to improve past the rest. Adam Kirby rides.

2.20 Sandown (Cotswold Chase – Grade 2) – BRISTOL DE MAI

We’re getting a very different Cotswold Chase this year after Trials Day at Cheltenham was abandoned, but that’s not to say that the winner of this race won’t feature highly in the betting for the Gold Cup in March.

This rearranged race still has a high-quality field, last year’s narrow Gold Cup second Santini being the subject of many of the bets while Native River will be as popular as ever.

Saint Calvados is frankly overpriced for this in receipt of 6lbs, but the one who still looks good enough to land this event if not the Gold Cup is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Bristol De Mai.

Many things have been said about him in the past; “he won’t be beaten at Haydock”, “he can only win at Haydock”, “he can’t go right-handed” etc, but that of course is all nonsense.

The fact is that he is just a damn good three-mile chaser, especially on soft ground, and so given the potential flaws in his opponents when it comes to underfoot conditions and/or the even three-mile trip, he on balance looks the best of the bunch.

3.15 Leopardstown (Irish Champion Hurdle – Grade 1) – SHARJAH 

The Dublin Racing Festival is absolutely top-notch and, in my mind if not in many others, it has provided horses and trainers competing there with an advantage at Cheltenham given that they are very much match fit when they get to the big one in March.

Races such as the Irish Champion Hurdle are massive in their own right of course, and this year we may well see Willie Mullins’ Sharjah truly coming of age.

Already a winner of four Grade One races, he wasn’t at his best in this contest last year behind the likely favourite for this renewal, Honeysuckle, but he’s in truly flying form going into the race.

The track, trip and the ground will have him at his best, while the hitherto unbeaten Honeysuckle has arguably been better over two-and-a-half miles and so a slight upset could be on the cards here.

Saturday 30th January 2020: Marie to Rock at Doncaster

After the sad loss of another Cheltenham card, it could well have been the case that betting options were limited for us this week.

Luckily though, despite the heavy rain we have two value punts at Doncaster over the jumps and another pair of intriguing contenders to get stuck into on the all-weather down at Lingfield.

It’s hoped that some of the key races from Cheltenham’s Trials Day meeting can be salvaged yet as we look forward to the Festival, but our concern for now is making some profit and we begin our assault on the bookmakers at Doncaster.

2.05 Doncaster (Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle – Grade 2) – MARIE’S ROCK

Unfortunately, I’ve left myself rather hoping for Nico de Boinville to have a mixed day in Yorkshire. He is primarily on site to ride the brilliant Shiskin of course, but he also has two other potential favourites on the card for Nicky Henderson, including in this race.

Floressa is the mount of de Boinville, however I think her stablemate Marie’s Rock is better positioned to be able to take this Grade 2 event under James Bowen.

Both mares have good form and presumably the top jockey had the choice of them, however in simplifying matters regarding the pair it became apparent that a) Marie’s Rock’s best time figures and form have come in these conditions, Floressa’s have not, and b) our mare was 2/1 favourite to beat her pal last time.

True, she wasn’t great when the two last met, but Marie’s Rock was considered to be ahead of Floressa in the queue and one bad run shouldn’t change that so she is taken to exact some revenge in conditions she will definitely relish.

2.40 Doncaster (River Don Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 2) – EMIR SACREE

We’re banking on Nicky Henderson having a great day at Doncaster, and this time on Nico de Boinville to get the job done up top.

Emir Sacree is an intriguing seven-year-old gelding. Reaching a decent level in France during 2018 and 2019, the bay had an injury which led to him having some time on the side lines.

Having moved to Henderson’s yard this winter, he now has the chance to fulfil his potential and a winning debut in an Ascot handicap certainly did plenty to show us all that he is heading the right way.

He made all that day over 2m5f but that was mostly due to the fact, I believe, that they knew he was a little too good for the field and so tactics aren’t a problem here if he finds himself back in the pack. The step up in trip is ideal, he has had enough recovery time and looks good to go again.

There are plenty of challengers in behind in what looks like a competitive race; Pats Fancy and Ashdown Lad probably leading the way in terms of those holding place chances.

2.55 Lingfield (Handicap) – RENARDEAU

This is a small but interesting mile-and-a-half handicap. The money in the build-up to the weekend has all come for Pirate King of Charlie Fellowes’ yard and while he has an obvious chance, he is very much too short to win this at around even-money.

His own form can’t be questioned. Pirate King’s record over this course and distance is 11123, that latest third coming after an awkward start so his credentials in the conditions are top-notch.

His handicap marks for those five races however were 80, 83, 87, 95 and 96 so it could also simply be that the assessor has now more or less caught up with him.

Either way, he is vulnerable here to one of the outsiders in the shape of Renardeau. Trained by Ali Stronge, the five-year-old is in good form after some placed finishes at Kempton but he did even better in the past on this surface.

PJ McDonald has been booked for this and one other ride on the card, and now there is every chance that a horse who is now back to his last winning mark (also over the same course and distance), has been priced incorrectly at around the 5/1 mark. Hydroplane is next on the list.

3.30 Lingfield (Handicap) – MASKED IDENTITY

We’re over the mile trip for this 0-95 handicap race, and at Lingfield that will put pace at quite a premium.

On the splits that would bring the overpriced Atheeb right into things here, but with pace and overall current ability taken into consideration the real value in the contest appears to be the ride of Josephine Gordon, Masked Identity.

Trained by Shaun Keightley, the six-year-old has been creeping right back up to his very best form of late in runs at Chelmsford and Wolverhampton.

At Wolverhampton on the Tapeta the extended one-mile trip was maybe a tad too testing, while the seven furlongs around Chelmsford was arguably too nippy which makes this the ideal race for him.

Beaten only a length last time in third place, Masked Identity was a little slowly away over the seven and better is expected this time which makes him look pretty good value in the market. Even if he doesn’t get the best break from stall 6, over this trip and in a small field he should have plenty of time to sort himself out and attack round the final bend.

Golden Force was the other horse that made the shortlist, while most of the money has been for Catch My Breath who is on a hat-trick over the track and trip, though he has been doing his winning against a lesser class of opposition and so this will be much tougher.

Saturday 23rd January 2021: Waiting Patiently to Punish the Bookmakers

It’s another Grade 1 weekend as the Clarence House Chase provides us with top-class action in its own right, as well as some very important Cheltenham clues.

Haydock too hosts a fantastic card, though races there will take some getting in the heavy conditions, while we also have a fancy at Newcastle on the all-weather track as one of last season’s best jockeys makes the journey to ride.

We’re kicking off at Ascot though with an underrated mare who could be good value to get the day off to a good start for the Paul Nicholls team.

1.15 Ascot (Warfield Mares’ Hurdle – Grade 2) – EGLANTINE DU SEUIL

We have just the five runners for the Mares’ Hurdle this year. Roksana should go off odds-on favourite and all eyes will be on Magic Of Light as the former winner of this race prepares for Cheltenham and/or Aintree, however the other one of the big three has been a little overlooked.

Eglantine Du Seuil, the former Willie Mullins mare and Cheltenham Festival winner now with Paul Nicholls, is overpriced in the overnight market.

Arguably she has not kicked on as many would have thought and the jury’s out as to why that is, but it seems there is more to come from her and in truth her form this season has been fine in the main.

She’s been raised 3lbs for a handicap second at Cheltenham, but I think that’s fair as it represents an upturn and I reckon she reaches a new career peak in this race given the conditions.

She’ll most likely need to beat Roksana to win so I’ll be keeping a sharp eye on Dan Skelton’s runner, while Magic Of Light may not be at her very best right now but will hopefully be seen once again in the Grand National in April.

1.30 Haydock (Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 2) – MINELLA DRAMA

Llandinabo Lad is a good one and it appears he is on target for the Cheltenham Festival, though he doesn’t look a firm favourite to me.

He won over the course and distance a couple of runs ago and that reads well, however he was turned over at Ascot in this grade when favourite back in December and is not infallible.

Based purely on his own form, Minella Drama has a top chance here. However, his opportunity becomes starker when you consider that he was beaten 5 lengths by Llandinabo Lad on his hurdling debut when giving away 5lbs.

Level weights would put them close now, so considering he actually gets another 5lbs from his main rival and has himself improved massively since they last met and is just too good a proposition to ignore.

The only other one in contention was Faivoir, but he should be falling a little way behind the big two and its Donald McCain and Sam Twiston-Davies who are backed to score.

3.35 Ascot (Clarence House Chase – Grade 1) – WAITING PATIENTLY

It would appear by my reckoning that the bookies have done a fair job getting the weekend’s biggest race right, at least in terms of separating the big three from the others.

Politologue, Waiting Patiently and Defi Du Seuil are the class acts in the contest and while I have all the respect in the world for Champion Chase and Tingle Creek winner Politologue, one of his rivals looks overpriced for this.

The horse in question is Ruth Jefferson’s Waiting Patiently. There have been some unkind things said about both the horse and the trainer recently, but the truth is the ten-year-old has always been a little fragile, needs this soft ground and in fact has been consistent at the top level overall.

Once thought of as a staying type, he won the 2018 Ascot Chase in great style and was second in this season’s King George at Kempton.

Second however in the Tingle Creek last season, this should be perfect for him and the fact that he was supplemented for the race shows the confidence connections have in his ability against the best two-milers.

Conditions are ideal for him here and now that he is fully ready to go, we can see a new career high, one that would have him challenging Politologue on a level playing field at least while Paul Nicholls’ charge is half the price.

Defi Du Seuil has been on the drift, and while at his very best he’d take close order as well, he didn’t finish last season brilliantly at Cheltenham and was pulled-up on his seasonal return at the same venue back in November so he may at least need this run.

5.40 Newcastle (Handicap) – TINTORETTO

Flat racing’s dream couple flies north from Chelmsford and Lingfield to ride at Newcastle on Saturday before heading back down south to ride again on Sunday. While Hollie Doyle has a chance on a skinny one, it’s Tom Marquand who can be backed at reasonable odds with this Tintoretto.

Lambourn’s Tom Ward sends this six-year-old gelding as his only runner on the card for the seven-furlong handicap. It’s a race which should prove to be perfect for a horse who has been the epitome of consistency and has already gone close on a similar surface at Wolverhampton.

Despite hardly putting a foot wrong on turf, Polytrack and Tapeta, he has gradually gone down the handicap (although back up 2lbs from last time) and after his latest effort at Wolverhampton he looks primed.

At a bigger price Seas Of Elzaam has a lot going for him in the context of this race, in fact if we could only guarantee he’d be back to his best he would have come right into the reckoning but that’s far from certain. Danielsflyer also made the shortlist for Michael Dods and Tom Eaves.

Saturday 15th January 2021: Total Commitment to Huge Betting Saturday

We have a busy Saturday of horse racing and it’s a potentially very important one too. Former Welsh National champ Potters Corner makes a return while there are plenty who are effectively going on trial for Cheltenham at Warwick and Market Rasen.

We have selections at both National Hunt venues as well as on the level at Lingfield and Kempton as seven carry our hopes (and cash) with them.

1.25 Lingfield (Handicap) – INTUITIVE

This is a good-quality one-mile handicap, one in which plenty are in with chances at first glance. Fox Power, Corazon Espinado, Crownthorpe and Lord Rapscallion will all be supported to a degree, but all things considered the value looks to be in Simon and Ed Crisford’s Intuitive.

Given the how he performs on the surface, which some in the field aren’t at their best on, the quality of the yard and the fact they’ve booked PJ McDonald to ride Intuitive looks a safe and value proposition for our first bet of the day.

2.15 Fairyhouse (Handicap Chase) – CHATHAM STREET LAD

Runaway Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winner Chatham Street Lad returns in this handicap chase, one in which he races for the first time since being raised 10lbs by the handicapper back in Ireland.

In truth, that 10lbs probably doesn’t even account for how impressive he was at Cheltenham, let alone how much he may improve, so he looks to be well in for this race.

As well as this, and despite the competitive look that the race has at first glance, he has fully 10 of his opposition running out of the handicap and in truth he should simply outclass them all.

2.25 Warwick (Leamington Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 2) – MAKE ME A BELIEVER

David Pipe has two or three options at the Festival for his Make Me A Believer and so clearly his likes and dislikes are not all ironed out yet. That said, his form is unquestionably good and whatever happens I can only see him improving for stepping up in trip to this 2m5f event.

Most of the field are last-time-out winners, but that only strengthens belief in the form and Make Me A Believer’s is the best on offer right here.

3.10 Lingfield (Handicap) – TOTAL COMMITMENT

Hampshire’s Simon Hodgson doesn’t have a massive string, but he has a terrific opportunity to land the Class 3, six-furlong handicap on the card with his Total Commitment. PJ McDonald has been booked and flies down from Newcastle for this and three other mounts, a move that should prove to be most rewarding.

This 5yo Exceed And Excel gelding was a winner over this trip at Kempton before running close over seven at Lingfield, the combination of this track and going back in trip now looking ideal. Sun Power and Mark Johnston’s Huraiz are preferred for places.

3.15 Market Rasen (Mares’ Bumper – Listed Race) – GRANGEE 

Multiple champion Willie Mullins is not exactly a regular visitor to Market Rasen, but he did send one for this very race last year en route to Cheltenham and he’s looking to repeat the trick.

This year’s entrant is Grangee and, while his overnight best price of 2/1 isn’t going to make us rich, it is certainly bigger than I’d expected owing to the presence of dual winner Eileendover.

The 4yo filly gets plenty of weight but there is a ton of improvement to come from the selection and as we all know, Mullins isn’t short of similar types to compare Grangee too so if he is confident then so too should we be.

6.20 Kempton Park (Handicap) – BABAJAN

Uncle Dick is likely to be all the rage for this small, three-year-olds only one-mile handicap but it’s more than possible that Eve Johnson Houghton’s gelding won’t have things all his own way.

True, he’s a last-time-out winner and he’s bound to improve having had only four career runs and one on the all-weather, but a closer look reveals a few negative aspects of his profile.

His win came at Wolverhampton, and the form from there doesn’t always translate well at Kempton, while he also jumps up to a Class 4 from a Class 6. He just got there against his lowly opposition last time out and is now up 3lbs so all in all he looks vulnerable at the top of the market.

Babajan on the other hand is excellent value in the circumstances. 3/1+ in a five-runner race, he looks a real improver having been 5th on his all-weather bow at Wolverhampton and then third around here last time.

Richard Hannon’s runner is getting better and has performed well over the course and distance and could well be on for a first career win. Andrew Balding’s Discomatic is next on the list.

7.20 Kempton Park (Fillies’ Handicap) – DANCING FEET

This is a decent seven-furlong handicap for the fillies and given the general form of all bar two of them, the entrants look in good shape giving us a reliable form outlook.

With that in mind the one with the most ticks in the most boxes is Archie Watson’s top weight Dancing Feet and she is backed to score.

The four-year-old daughter of Footstepsinthesand has the assistance of Hollie Doyle up top and while others may face questions regarding either the trip or Kempton’s surface, she very much has them already answered.

Dancing Feet remains in decent form after a couple of thirds at Lingfield and Wolverhampton over the winter, but in defeat the only thing she’s lost is a few pounds in the handicap which is ideal for us.

Back in October she put in her best career performance over this very course and distance and it seems these conditions are her ideal.

If that is true, then given natural improvement from then until now could mean she’s pretty well in and can land this at the expense of Broughton Sunpearl and Gold Brocade, the latter looking very good value in the market to grab a place.