Thursday, 3 August 2017

Glorious Goodwood Day Three: Can Winter brave the weather

Embed from Getty Images 1:50 Goodwood - Frontispiece (11/1) , Hold Sway (9/1) ew
An improving prospect in the making for Sir Michael Stoute is Frontispiece, who disappointed when sent off a hot favourite at Sandown last week. He had previously won both starts in good style, but could only finish third. He's a Shamardal, so should appreciate the slower ground and has been gifted a low weight. The only concern is his wide stall.

Hold Sway is another who will appreciate the ground. A good to soft winner on his penultimate start, he has been in good form this season, and should give a good account of himself.

2:10 Nottingham - Mother Of Dragons (7/4)
Prior to the Super Sprint at Newbury, trainer Joseph Tuite spoke really highly of this horse. I think they are expecting her to go on a win a few races, and a maiden win seems straightforward. Newcomers are always a danger, but she sets a very high standard.

2:25 Goodwood - Endless Time (10/3)
Endless Time is not only really good mare, but she will love the ground and should take all the beating. Her Lancashire Oaks win on soft, or Prix Royal-Oak second on good to soft sets a very high standard. She didn't stay in the Gold Cup, but was a very close fourth in the Yorkshire Cup the time before.

3:00 Goodwood - Nebo (7/2)
The Richmond looks to have a pretty good field once again, and I am siding with Nebo for Charlie Hills. He is clearly a capable horse after finishing second to Gustav Klimt at Newmarket, and that form is very promising on these terms. He won his debut on soft, and should be able to handle today's conditions much better than his rivals. I am expecting a big run.

3:35 Goodwood - Winter (6/4), Sobetsu (6/1) ew
Winter is the star horse in the race, and has shown her elite level of quality consistently this season. For me, it's a case of getting the ground; I strongly believe if she handles the conditions then she wins.

If Winter doesn't I will be looking for the Godolphin colours of Sobetsu, one who will relish the wet ground and is a Group One winner over today's trip.

4:10 Goodwood - Billesdon Brook (9/2), Tangled (7/1) ew
Billesdon Brook ran a great race when winning her maiden, and then went on to finish third in a listed contest. She is one that should go well on the ground, and sets a good standard.

Another for Richard Hannon is Tangled, who was a very impressive winner last time out. He has been raised 11lb, but I expect a bold show.

4:45 Goodwood - Magical (8/13) NAP, Ann Without An E (22/1) ew
Ballydoyle's Magical may just be that and is a worthy favourite here this afternoon. She enjoyed an excellent debut when second to an experienced rival at the Curragh, and the debut form from that race will work out strongly. She has the pedigree to be a superstar, and should enjoy breaking her maiden today.

Ann Without An E can fare best of the newcomers for Mick Channon, He's bred pretty well, and pedigree indicates he should be okay on today's conditions.

5:20 Goodwood - Megan Lilly (10/1), Poet's Society (12/1) ew
Megan Lilly is one that will certainly relish the conditions at Goodwood this afternoon, but also has plenty of talent. She won a similar affair at Chester last month, but has been beaten well on her last two starts. She is only 2lb higher than that win, and can take advantage of the soft ground.

Poet's Society is another who will enjoy today's conditions. His last win came at Newmarket on good to soft, but he has run well on softer before. His recent form has been a tad disappointing, but he should run better today.

7:15 Ffos Las - Alaadel (4/1)
Despite finishing my day's duties at Goodwood soaked and muddy, I did realise that the weather would help this one out a lot. Alaadel is a really nice progressive horse, who won on heavy ground on his maiden. Ffos Las is expected to be soft, which should suit. He has been disapointed since winning his maiden, but I am expecting today's ground to bring back the best of him.

7:30 Epsom - Coral Sea (3/1)
I backed this horse at Doncaster last time out, and he finished fifth when getting a very poor passage from the back. When he did find space he picked up well, so I am sticking with him today. He will like most ground, and should be good on the track. The only issue is the step up to seven is an unknown, but I do think he can handle it.

£1 Lucky 15 (Endless Time/Nebo/Magical/Coral Sea) returns £358.

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