This weekend sees the first two classics of the season run at Newmarket as the Flat season gets going in earnest. We have a selection in both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas as well as one in the opening handicap at HQ and another in a nice fillies’ race at Goodwood, hopefully leading to plenty of profit.
Look out for Defoe running again in the Jockey Club Stakes, potential Derby and Oaks contenders in the Newmarket Stakes and Pretty Poly Stakes as well as the latest Kentucky Derby champion being crowned over in Louisville.
Here are our top picks for the weekend:
Saturday 5th May 2018
1.50 Newmarket (Spring Lodge Stakes Handicap) – SHARJA BRIDGE
Having been beaten only narrowly behind Group 1 hunting Addeybb on debut last summer, it’s easy to see why many believe Roger Varan’s charge to be well handicapped for this contest and I have to agree.
Very soft ground was no good for him when beaten at long odds-on at Pontefract on his second start but other than that he has shown himself to be highly progressive and looks like running to Listed or Group 3 standard about now with everything taken into consideration, so arriving here on a mark of 99 makes him very appear well-in.
John Gosden’s Dommersen rates a big danger so long as the “bounce” factor doesn’t kick in, i.e. he ran well last time in Listed company after nearly 19 months off the track and may not be in the same form or the same mood this time around.
If he does in fact progress from that run though he can show up well here, along with David Simcock’s Another Eclipse and Charlie Appleby’s Oasis Charm.
2.05 Goodwood (Daisy Warwick Fillies’ Stakes) – MORI
The daughter of Frankel only just missed out at Royal Ascot last year and has had a wind operation since a couple of underwhelming performances after that run last season.
She will appreciate the softer going here and by my reckoning has shown superior speed figures on easier ground compared to today’s rivals despite not being at her best so should be right at the forefront of things here.
Mori won the Height of Fashion Stakes around this track last year over 1m2f and is in need of this extra trip, so we should see her best performance to date in this one which should be enough for the win ahead of Architecture and Isabel De Urbina.
3.35 Newmarket (2000 Guineas) – ELARQAM
Three-year-olds winning the Guineas first time out for the season are not rare, but those with only two starts certainly are however if any horse was ever bred for this job then its Mark Johnston’s star colt Elarqam.
By runaway 2011 2000 Guineas winner Frankel out of Attraction - who was a superb winner of the 2003 Fillies’ equivalent and trained by Johnston - Elarqam has this in his veins. On what we know about him so far following his tough but classy win in the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes here as well as taking a line through his lineage, I’d say we can expect a run well into the 120’s and that should make him good enough.
Despite his foibles, the potentially wonderful Expert Eye has to remain high on the list too and if settling OK and staying the trip may well show us again the sort of form which had us all licking our lips after he took the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last summer.
Forget Goodwood though; despite being beaten in a supposedly disappointing performance in the Greenham last month he ran to a mark of around 110 that day. If any other inexperienced horse had done that in a trial without being fully wound-up you’d mark them down as a serious contender in this.
Naturally it wouldn’t surprise me to see any of Aidan O’Brien’s contenders go well while Masar, the Goldolphin runner, was hugely impressive in the Craven Stakes here but may not improve as much as some of the others between then and now.
Sunday May 6th 2018
3.35 Newmarket (1000 Guineas) – SOLILOQUY
The fact that Sheikh Mohammed paid a pretty sum to supplement Soliloquy into this race isn’t a massive pointer in itself, but a look at her overall profile as well as considering that the Boys in Blue already have Wild Illusion in the race with a live chance does speak volumes.
The daughter of Dubawi improved plenty when taking the Nell Gwyn Stakes at the Craven meeting last month and it wasn’t unexpected. She has improved tons over the winter months and wasn’t fully wound up to take care of Altyn Order that day who just failed behind O’Brien contender I Can Fly last season in the Oh So Sharp Stakes.
Plenty more progress is expected and I can easily see her leading home her stablemate Wild Illusion who showed top class form when taking the Prix Marcel Boussac last backend, though she may want a little further than this ideally.
Aidan O’Brien’s biggest chance seems to lie with Happily, another Group 1 winner at the Arc meeting, though again whatever she achieves here can be improved upon when going up in trip.
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