Saturday is a busy racing day but it’s one which revolves totally around the Derby at 4.30 and we have a great value bet up against the favourite.
We can get the afternoon off to a great start on the Downs in the opening mile-and-a-quarter handicap with one of John Gosden’s while we also take in the Listed race up at Musselburgh as they celebrate Ladies’ Day. Here’s the best of Saturday’s bets:
Embed from Getty Images2.00 Epsom (1m2f Handicap) – COURT HOUSE
Competition is not exactly in short supply on Derby day and in that regard, this race is no exception. Both Ship Of The Fen and Indomeneo can take a step forward and as such most hold place chances at least, however John Gosden’s charge has been slightly underestimated I feel and is clearly on the upgrade.
The form of his seconds to Kentucky Derby hopeful Gronkowski and to Old Persian at Newmarket can be upgraded now Court House gets a chance to stretch out in a faster paced race, along with the evidence of his racing profile which shows a horse improving leaps and bounds and it’s enough to suggest he can win this.
2.35 Epsom (Princess Elizabeth Stakes – Group 3) – ANNA NERIUM
Likely favourite Lincoln Rocks is a good target to aim for, however having reached a mark of 105 with plenty of history behind her she is definitely there to be shot at by smart three-year-old Anna Nerium and the Hannon filly is taken to score.
The weight-for-age received by the classic generation doesn’t benefit as much at this time of year as you may think, however that is taken into consideration here and I can’t get away from the toughness as well as class that this filly showed when winning the European Free Handicap at Newmarket in April.
She was not disgraced in the 1000 Guineas next time out either and should handle rain-softened ground well enough, making her fair value to beat the aforementioned Lincoln Rocks and fellow 3yo Dance Diva to claim the Group 3 prize.
3.25 Musselburgh (Ladies’ Day Gold Cup – Listed Race) – BESHAAYIR
This is a race which seems to revolve around the three-year-olds and I would be surprised if Roger Varian’s Madeline is not favourite on the day.
Having already won at Listed level and been placed in a Group One, Madeline will have plenty of supporters but she didn’t really improve an awful lot at the back end of last season and simply maintained her form before a below-par reappearance this term, albeit in the 1000 Guineas itself.
Beshaayir is at the other end of the scale in that she is only just starting out in her career and was not extended at all to win an all-weather novice race in April but is capable of so much more now up against quicker types.
On a line through the horses she beat that day it would seem she is right up to this level, plus she is bound to have improved plenty during her 54-day break from the track.
4.30 Epsom (THE DERBY – Group 1) – YOUNG RASCAL
Don’t get me wrong – anyone with eyes would have been impressed with Saxon Warrior even before the race at Newmarket so when he went on to land the 2000 Guineas his status as another O’Brien superstar appeared to be confirmed.
If he stays well enough, he should win and that remains the case now however he is no value at all and may not appreciate the ground after the rainfall at Epsom during the week.
Assuming he doesn’t step forward as the Coolmore team would wish given the conditions, then for me William Haggas’ runner Young Rascal is the most likely to take advantage.
A rarity in this field; the Chester Vase winner is already proven over his trip as well as having run well on softer ground. Natural improvement from a trial to the big day, as well as taking a line through his lineage, would mean he can run right up to a mark of around 120 now which makes him a proper Group 1 horse and in with a shout of a Derby win.
The money has come this week for Hazapour but he doesn’t quite come here with as much proven talent as similar types Sinndar and Harzand for owner the Aga Khan and so despite liking the conditions, he may just lack a touch of class.
Well fancied types Masar and Roaring Lion have drifted since the rain came and it’s easy to see why, though outsider Sevenna Star may have a say in the finish and should not be ignored given these conditions.
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