Friday, 6 July 2018

Saturday 7th July: Derby Hero To Confirm His Superiority In Eclipse Showdown

It’s Coral-Eclipse day at Sandown on Saturday and although the mile-and-a-quarter championship race is by far the biggest on the card, it’s a competitive full day of racing in Esher with plenty of value bets to be had.

Watch out for the early start once again, something designed in recent weeks to ensure the racing does not clash too much with the World Cup in Russia, and we get going very soon with a punt in the five furlong Coral Charge at 12.20.

Haydock Park provides the supporting cast with the Lancashire Oaks potentially an important race for the middle-distance fillies in the context of this season and that could be won by a very familiar face.  Here are Saturday’s best bets:

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12.20 Sandown (Coral Charge – Group 3) – MUTHMIR

In the absence of a future star, such as last year’s winner Battaash, this looks a tight little race and it could be one of the seasoned performers getting his head in front in the shape of William Haggas’ superb servant Muthmir.

Winner of a Listed race last time out at Haydock Park, he likes these conditions and the title of Group 3 doesn’t scare me off even given his age as he is in the sort of form which looks like being enough to get the better of Judicial and Mr Lupton with Sir Michael’s Dream Of Dreams not likely to love the faster ground.

Clive Cox’s three-year-old Koditime is not out of this at a big price but may be best watched for now until we see the sort of improvement he is threatening, so it’s the old boy for us with Jim Crowley aboard.

12.55 Sandown (Coral Challenge – Handicap) – POUVOIR MAGIQUE

A stable like John Gosden’s doesn’t want to get a win into a horse to get into the Royal Hunt Cup just for the experience, they don’t need that, they do it when they feel their horse can win the big one so in trying just that at Newcastle we can second guess where this horse is at in terms of his development.

It went wrong on the tapeta and so his Royal Ascot run didn’t materialise, however he is back over a fast ground mile now and should have the necessary improvement within him to make this handicap mark look a little conservative.

James Doyle’s mount can take this ahead of Chiefofchiefs and usual suspects Escobar and Via Serendipity before perhaps moving on to better things.

1.10 Haydock (Lancashire Oaks – Group 2) – PRECIOUS RAMOTSWE

Having previously landed a gamble for us, Precious returns to action and is downed in trip but upped in class for this Lancashire Oaks test and she looks terrific value to keep her career on an upward curve.

Her win last time out in a York Group 3 was impressive given she probably didn’t want that entire 1m6f trip and so we can probably upgrade a performance which landed her a mark of 100.  That, plus the significant improvement trainer John Gosden gets out of these fillies leads me to think she can run right up to 108-110 now and that should be enough to land this prize.

The 4yo is by Nathaniel and the memories are still vivid of him winning the Eclipse in 2012 on the very same day his full sister Great Heavens (John Gosden) landed this very race impressively.  Horseplay and Aidan O’Brien’s Flattering are likely to give her most to do.

2.10 Sandown (Coral-Eclipse – Group 1) – MASAR

Unfortunately for the sport overall, oh so seldom do we see a good Derby winner take the not-so-easy route next time and actually confirm their superstardom however this time around I feel it’s different and the excellent Charlie Appleby could be the one to supervise the feat with his Epsom hero Masar.

Having routed his opposition over a mile in the Craven Stakes, Masar was beaten comfortably enough in the 2000 Guineas behind Saxon Warrior before reversing the form and taking the Derby in good style over a mile-and-a-half.

On pedigree and running style I’d say this trip (1m2f) is his ideal and we can expect even more improvement now, something which would make him nigh unstoppable even in a quality Group 1 field.

Old foe Roaring Lion may also appreciate this trip but we pretty much know what to expect from him now and his best would put him close, though he would be relying on Masar not quite giving his running in truth.

Aidan O’Brien is doing the sport a massive favour by being brave enough to send Saxon Warrior out again only a week after his Irish Derby disappointment and he is another who will appreciate this trip, however running again so soon is almost certain to mean we don’t see the best of him and so he is likely to be found wanting once more.

Forest Ranger is a potential improver for Richard Fahey but may or may not be up to genuine Group 1 level while Godolphin’s second string Hawkbill is carrying some confidence into the race and is the main hope of the older generation, however in these fast conditions he is unfortunately liable to be half a stone below his maximum.

3.20 Sandown (Coral Marathon – Listed Race) – PLATITUDE

A lot has been made of whether horses improve first run or second run after a wind operation, personally I take little notice of the information at all though it was striking that at 20/1 this Platitude won first time out in a handicap at Goodwood in May having had said surgery.

The performance could be owed as much to a change of scenery and routine as anything else though, now with Amanda Perrett rather than Sir Michael Stoute this 5yo has more to give and looks the only potential improver in the race to perhaps score at the expense of last year’s winner Nearly Caught.

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