Despite the presence of our Group 1 sprint on the card, Saturday is billed as the return of Enable and it’ll be great to see this world class filly back on the track. She’s not a backable price in the September Stakes (2.05, Kempton) however and so we focus our scrutiny elsewhere.
Harry Angel takes on 11 rivals in the Sprint Cup at Haydock, one of which I think can run him close, while a couple of recently unlucky-in-running types may gain compensation down at Ascot.
We start at Haydock though and potentially a very good value wager on record breaker Mark Johnston’s runner in the Group 3:
Embed from Getty Images2.25 Haydock (Superior Mile Stakes - Group 3) - THREADING
Often under bet and over priced, Mark Johnston’s talented filly can throw in a bad one but she sure is excellent on her day. Despite some strong form on quicker ground, a look back to the start of her career appears to show a fondness for softer going and so underfoot conditions could be the catalyst to a return to form this weekend.
Producing the sort of performance we know she’s capable of after some under-par efforts would see her a few pounds too good for Regal Reality who admittedly rates a huge danger, while Tabarrak continues to out perform his reputation and has a place chance.
2.45 Ascot (7f Handicap) - MUBTASIM
I’ll confess this chap is an old favourite of mine, but then there’s a reason for that as he remains capable of some very good levels of form so long as he gets his conditions. The seven furlong trip at Ascot with a strong pace is ideal and he can now leave behind his fifth place at Chelmsford to score once more.
He’s been busy enough but as a four-year-old with 16 runs under his belt he can still ameliorate his racing profile so we may even see a career best in this race. Gilgamesh, Ripp Orf and Cape Byron are obvious contenders and should prove popular in the betting ring against him.
3.50 Kempton (1m Nursery Handicap) - DAAFR
There are plenty in with chances here on the book, Eyelool looking solid and Bercheny the improver to name two, however there’s plenty more to come from John Gosden’s runner and its the expensive son of Invincible Spirit that gets the nod.
Daafr has had two pretty underwhelming runs on turf, though they sandwich what was an impressive enough appearance at Newcastle on an artificial surface and it must be remembered that his last turf run was in a Group 2. He’s perhaps not up to Group level yet, but he’s certainly better than his mark of 83 so is well handicapped.
3.55 Ascot (Lavazza Stakes Handicap) - FIRST ELEVEN
This is a high quality handicap and it’ll be no surprise to see the likes of Ghostwatch, Midi and Berkshire Royal to the fore at the business end although they all look much of a muchness at the weights. Our horse is the only one in the field that can potentially improve enough to put daylight between him and the rest and so he rates a good bet.
Although beaten at Newmarket last time, which wasn’t a great surprise to me, First Eleven was frightfully unlucky not to win at Royal Ascot the time before and so with advancement likely he could just be too good at the weights.
4.15 Haydock (Sprint Cup - Group 1) - EQTIDAAR (each-way)
This is a proper championship race and it would be no surprise at all to see the world class Harry Angel romp in again, however on the balance of things we cannot back him. Having cut himself in the starting stalls at Ascot he ran a shocker and has since has to recover, something his trainer says he’s done but it’s not something we can trust at short prices.
With the favourite not 100% guaranteed to be at his very best, we can afford to look elsewhere for some each-way value and taking a very simplistic view; why would be believe Group 1 winning three-year-old Eqtidaar will not run well?
He didn’t perform in the July Cup at HQ, but then so many don’t, and a return to the fast progression he’s shown to this point would mean him having a great place chance at a very nice price. Sir Dancealot and Gustav Klimt are others to consider.
4.25 Kempton (Sirenia Stakes - Group 3) - KONCHEK
As the season wears on more and more lightly raced juveniles announce themselves as potential Group performers, however we can rely on a flashy early season type to get his eventual reward here in the shape of Clive Cox’s Konchek.
A very taking five-furlong debut in May at Newmarket was followed up by a third in Listed company and a fine 5th in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and he hasn’t stopped improving since. A first Group win is overdue and that can be gained at the expense of Quiet Endeavour and Kessaar.
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