We have very much a mixed bag this week as British National Hunt and all-weather flat racing meet, while the Road to the Kentucky Derby gets going in earnest over in the States.
Kelso’s seasonal highlights are run on an afternoon when, despite great prize money, none of the big yards other than Paul Nicholls have supported the card and it would be great to see both he and Bryony Frost rewarded with a win for Black Corton, while Newbury hosts its Greatwood Charity Raceday and it’s there we begin with a juicy looking bet in the Grade 3 handicap chase:
2.40 Newbury (Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase – Grade 3) – MERCIAN PRINCE
There are plenty in with chances on the book as you’d expect in such a competitive handicap chase, but in Amy Murphy our selection is trained by an underrated handler and with plenty of improvement expected after what was an easy and impressive win at Kempton Park this Mercian Prince may have too much despite a 10lb rise in the weights.
The eight-year-old dominated that four-runner event last time on decent ground and, even though he of course faces tougher opposition this time, he won with such ease we have no idea where the bottom of him is.
Dan Skelton’s ten-year-old Value At Risk is probably overpriced too after his recent success while Dr Richard Newland can no doubt coax more out of lightweight Dustin Des Mottes who himself looks a very backable each-way price.
2.50 Lingfield (Class 2 Handicap) – CORINTHIA KNIGHT
We went for this chap last week over the course and distance and while once more it didn’t work out for him seven days ago, his time will undoubtedly come and he once again has conditions to suit this weekend.
Despite the weight turnaround, Archie Watson’s four-year-old has a great chance of reversing last week’s form with Royal Birth from the Listed race while Gracious John’s form is close to Corinthia Knight’s on the book and so he can go close as well.
With a strong pace and a little luck in running, this Corinthia Knight should eventually truly show what he can do back on the same handicap mark he was on when scoring nicely here back in December.
3.20 Lingfield (Class 3 Handicap) – INSURGENCE
This is a very tight one-mile handicap at first glance and on the book anything could win it, but in James Fanshawe’s four-year-old Insurgence we have one horse in particular who may improve significantly given his age and mileage and that makes him a backable prospect.
His level of form in finishing second to Mr Scaramanga last time out is higher than the others for me and given that he didn’t get the ideal trip round last time, it’s thought he can go one better now.
Despite that race being very much one to blow the cobwebs away, it was comfortably his best performance to date showing that he’s improved nicely from three to four so off a mark 3lbs lower than the heights he reached last year the race could be his. Chevallier and Family Fortunes look to be the best of the rest and can fight it out for place money.
3.50 Lingfield (Spring Cup – Listed Race) – FANAAR
We’re taking a slight chance here and going for the one horse with no all-weather form in the shape of William Haggas’ Fanaar, though it is very much expected that this surface will suit him.
His overall form, especially in defeat behind Arctic Sound last season, seems to put him a couple of pounds ahead of the field for his seasonal debut at a level he can handle with Don Armado expected to do well now going over this trip with Oisin Murphy on board, perhaps therefore reversing Newcastle places with Deep Intrigue.
Fanaar doesn’t have any fancy entries at this stage but it was always felt last year he could reach triple digits in the ratings and go for some low grade Group races; Saturday will help determine that.
6.30 Chelmsford (Class 3 Handicap) – TECHNOLOGICAL
We could be set for one at a very tasty price here in the shape of George Margarson’s Technological, a four-year-old with plenty more to give despite the fact he’s already run four times since the end of December.
A close look at his form suggests this surface will suit him much more than Kempton and Wolverhampton did, though he’s remained in decent form the whole time while the step up to one-and-a-quarter miles and the booking of the globetrotting Oisin Murphy are also positives for him.
Bottom weight Temur Khan as well as Marcus Tregoning’s Seafarer can also present big challenges, but on a day when his star riders arrives here for three rides with this being the most valuable of them, Technological may just be the one.
10.32 Gulfstream Park (Fountain of Youth Stakes – Grade 2) – HIDDEN SCROLL
The race to grab a place in the Kentucky Derby field truly takes a step forward this weekend when Juddmonte’s outstanding January debut winner Hidden Scroll makes his second appearance at Gulfstream in Florida.
In dancing away to score by an easy 14 lengths during the Pegasus World Cup meeting Bill Mott’s colt made a huge impression and earned a similar speed rating to last year’s Triple Crown hero Justify, and given that his sire and damsire are both Kentucky Derby runners-up it seems he is bred for the job.
It was very interesting to note that one prominent UK bookmaker priced this horse up at 7/4 on Thursday before bringing him in to 6/4 very quickly, but with some American watchers not yet convinced about Hidden Scroll given that he went on a sloppy track last time (which can actually ride faster) and with his morning line odds set at 9/5, there is hope we can get a decent price on the night. Signalman and Code Of Honor look the main dangers.
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