It’s Grand National day this Saturday and with all eyes on Aintree we have come up with four belting value bets from Liverpool to get stuck into.
We should be mindful also that a whole bunch of Irish classic contenders make their seasonal reappearances over at Leopardstown too in their trials, one of which looks value against the likely favourite, while the Kentucky Derby prep races over in the States continue and we could just see a real contender for the big one in Louisville take his prep at great value odds.
We begin at Aintree though with a solid bet in the first of three Grade 1 races on the card:
2.25 Aintree (Mersey Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1) – ANGELS BREATH
The selection and main rival Brewin’upastorm are each rated the same at 148 in the handicap but in truth, there is more to come from Angels Breath in the near future so given that the soft ground is fine and he’s crying out for this 2m4f trip there is plenty of value in backing Nicky Henderson’s gelding today.
Although second in a Grade 2 in February, his key piece of form is his Ascot win back in December when he stayed on up the hill really well and has found things a little dry and a little sharp since then. Nico de Boinville should be able to sit pretty this time before kicking away from the field when it counts.
3.00 Aintree (Maghull Novices’ Chase – Grade 1) – US AND THEM
Despite how popular Lalor was in the ante-post market for the Arkle and how good he looked early doors this season, he may just not be of the very highest order on this sort of ground while other major challenger Clondaw Castle really has to improve again having been well beaten fair and square at Cheltenham, albeit this track should suit him better.
Ahead of them both in the Arkle at the Festival was Joseph O’Brien’s Us And Them and despite having been beaten four times in a row now into second place, his form has held up very well and he continues to improve a tad between runs so should have enough to finally grab that Grade 1 win with no real superstar there this time to stop him.
3.40 Aintree (Stayers’ Hurdle – Grade 1) – APPLE’S JADE
Given her clear dislike for Cheltenham, Apple’s Jade is expected to improve significantly from her disappointing run in the Champion Hurdle and having already shown a liking for this trip she looks too good given her weight concession for the likes of Sam Spinner and If The Cap Fits.
Gordon Elliott’s awesome mare had begun the season by winning four on the bounce before her Prestbury Park flop, which wasn’t unexpected in many quarters, and if anything could put up a new career best in this which would be more than good enough under Jack Kennedy.
She is bound to be extremely popular on the day so it may be worth taking an early price, especially if your bookmaker is offering best odds guaranteed.
3.50 Leopardstown (Ballysax Stakes – Group 3) – SYDNEY OPERA HOUSE
Ryan Moore has chosen one of the other Coolmore horses in the shape of Broome for this race, the obvious danger to the selection, but it must have been a hard decision what with the two colts having such similar form as juveniles.
Moore’s mount was second not only to the impressive Madhmoon, a strong favourite earlier on this card, but also to Royal Marine in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc last backend but one could argue that Donnacha O’Brien got a slightly better tune out of the horse during last term.
He rides Sydney Opera House in this who was himself second in a French Group 1 at the end of a busy season and could be much better now rested properly. Both colts are sons of Australia but with that Galileo line they should handle the soft ground well and stay on right to the line over this mile-and-a-quarter trip.
5.15 Aintree (Grand National – Grade 3) – WALK IN THE MILL (each-way)
An impressive winner of the Becher Chase around here over the winter, for which he was very well backed down from big prices, Walk In The Mill has always been targeted at this race and it may pay dividends in the £1million showpiece.
Robert Walford’s horse has had a couple of runs over hurdles to keep him straight in the lead-up to this race, a very wise move one feels, so he won’t be too fresh and is not badly treated at all by the handicapper.
He jumps, he stays, he won’t mind the softer ground and has the bare form to take a major role in the biggest betting race anywhere in the world so at prices like 25/1 on the eve of the race he can be taken each-way with many bookies offering five or even 6 places.
11.00 Aqueduct (Wood Memorial Stakes – Grade 2) – HAIKAL
The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues apace with three major preps taking place on Saturday night including this valuable Grade 2 contest.
Given the disappointment last week of Hidden Scroll in the Florida Derby, Bill Mott and Juddmonte will be pleased they still have Tacitus to call on but he may be vulnerable here even after his Tampa Bay Derby win and this trip to New York may prove to be relatively fruitless in the end.
Step forward Gotham Stakes winner Haikal, a colt who knows this track inside and out and who hasn’t been totally extended yet. Despite winning his Grade 3 last time when in receipt of weight, he looks the one with most progress to offer in this line-up and it has to be said he won with a bit in hand last time out so must be upgraded ratings-wise.
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