Given the fantastic way Ascot drains after heavy rainfall, we should not expect genuinely soft ground for Gold Cup day and as such the various pieces of form in each race should hold up to close scrutiny.
The draw is as important as ever in certain races and the top trainers and jockeys are in blinding form this meeting, so with some confident views taken we can get stuck into these four bets on day three of the Royal meeting.
2.30 Ascot (Norfolk Stakes – Group 2) – EXPRESSIONIST
We have another speed feast on our hands here featuring what are currently the fastest juveniles anywhere in Britain or Ireland currently.
If the soft ground did happen to hold up then likely clear favourite Sunday Sovereign would have an outstanding chance, not just because of underfoot conditions but because he also beat Coventry Stakes winner Arizona comfortably on his second start.
Aidan O’Brien’s colt improved a lot after than run though and needed the sixth furlong on Tuesday, so Paddy Twomey’s colt looks a little short in the market with the form not to be simply taken at face value.
The one to appeal most of all is Charlie Appleby’s Expressionist, a winner over this course and distance on good-to-soft ground some 40 days ago who is certain to improve a ton in this race.
He was lightning that day, comfortably beating a horse who is now a double winner and under James Doyle he can defy both his low draw and his rather high price.
3.05 Ascot (Hampton Court Stakes – Group 3) – SANGARIUS
We’ve some great form to assess in this race and there are simply too many horses to mention who all have thoroughly decent chances on the book, but the reality of a situation like that is when there are so many with good profiles you can’t help thinking that they can’t all be outstanding and so it’s best to stick with the one’s who’ve already done it at a high level.
Aidan O’Brien’s Cape Of Good Hope won the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom earlier in the season and came on a little bit from that when running fourth in the French Derby (Group 1). Further improvement would of course see him go very close here and his stable are flying, but there’s a nagging feeling that we’ve already just about seen what he has to offer for now and so others could improve past him.
John Gosden’s Kick On didn’t enjoy his own trip to France and it’s better to draw a line under that run, as before that he’d shown plenty of good early season form.
A good winner from the front in the Feilden Stakes, he stepped down in trip but up in ability when running 7th in the 2000 Guineas from the wrong side of the track, beaten only a length by Skardu (4th in the St James’s Palace Stakes this week) and half a length by Madhmoon (second in the Derby).
His form for me is the best in the race on that evidence, but he won’t necessarily come on much more having had to put it all in there and this will be his fourth run in just over 60 days.
The standout with an eye on the (hopefully very near) future then is Sir Michael Stoute’s Sangarius. Touted as a Group 1 horse and originally aimed at the Guineas, he swept clear at Doncaster last year to win a Listed event on just his second start and hated the ground on his reappearance behind King Ottokar.
Since then he has run third to King Of Comedy in the Heron Stakes, a race in which he hung badly and was most likely inconvenienced by the very quick ground and mile trip, so remembering that King Of Comedy really should have won the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes here on Tuesday his form is spot-on and he has loads of improvement to come at this trip which has been the plan since the start of the season.
3.40 Ascot (Ribblesdale Stakes – Group 2) – STAR CATCHER
Sparkle Roll went off favourite for the Musidora, Fanny Logan ran very well in the Cheshire Oaks and Anapurna (not entered here) won the Oaks so it’s fair to say John Gosden still has a very strong hand when it comes to three-year-old middle-distance fillies.
In Star Catcher he may have one who can give him another Royal Ascot winner too; far from the finished article and lightly raced, she scored nicely in April on her second start before improving markedly to run today’s rival Queen Power close at Newbury.
She will go on again from that and could prove to be the best of this bunch, especially as the logical two against her have a negative factor in common.
Time and time again, those who’ve run in the Oaks take a backwards step when coming out so quickly and so while Fleeting and Frankellina are both lovely fillies, they may secretly be feeling the effects of the efforts needed at Epsom to run third and sixth respectively and might not be at their best.
4.20 Ascot (Gold Cup Stakes – Group 1) – STRADIVARIUS
The big race of the day but the simplest one to assess. Given the quality involved and the extreme distance, if Stradivarius is as good as ever then he has to win this so any price odds-against is fair and he can be taken.
In winning the Yorkshire Cup for the second time he was better than ever visually, and on the numbers he was actually a couple of pounds better off year-on-year before heading to this race.
Dee Ex Bee is definitely the main danger but his form leaves a lot to be desired when examined closely, while French raider Called To The Bar rather than the well-touted Cross Counter may be next best and is great value for a place.
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