It’s Eclipse day on Saturday and, even given the belated reappearance and step down to ten furlongs, Enable should be a few pounds better than Regal Reality and Magical but is not a backable price given the circumstances.
We begin our betting journey on Friday however as a couple of value selections have presented themselves at the Esher track, beginning with a well-touted juvenile.
Friday 5th July 2019
2.20 Sandown (Dragon Stakes – Listed Race) – EXPRESSIONIST
The Godolphin colt was well fancied for his assignment at Royal Ascot but didn’t shine on that occasion, something that has led to him being a better price in this than he should be by rights.
His debut run at Ascot is the best early form on offer here and he’s entitled to go on from that, so he is forgiven his run in the Norfolk given that he missed the break and didn’t get a clean run.
Mark Johnston’s Makyon is interesting coming down in trip but it remains to be seen whether or not that’ll bring about any improvement, while Al Raya can also go well for trainer Simon Crisford.
3.25 Sandown (Gala Stakes – Listed Race) – ELARQAM
Having backed him on the day and always been a fan of his, I would not be sorry to see Royal Line come back and win this after his heroics in the November Handicap when last seen at Doncaster.
The truth is though that I’m surprised to see so many people tipping him up given that the softer conditions and the mile-and-a-half trip were both up his back ally then, while the testing nature of Epsom had also helped him previously so this sharper mile-and-a-quarter looks against him.
Elarqam, as we’ve pointed out here before, is heading close to the level he should be at with his run behind Addeybb at Royal Ascot a very good one albeit rather blunted given the soft ground.
He’ll be better this time for a faster surface and can take this ahead of Royal Line, with Extra Elusive and Oasis Charm also likely to be involved at the business end of the contest.
Saturday 6th July 2019
1.50 Sandown (Coral Charge – Group 3) – GARRUS
As time wears on it is increasingly confusing to see Aidan O’Brien’s Sergei Prokofiev so over-bet, because while he comes from a brilliant stable his numbers simply don’t add up to his prominence in the market and it looks the case once again in this speed event.
Instead the value call is Garrus, a former Jeremy Noseda charge now with Charlie Hills who has a good grasp of what it takes to win the best five-furlong races right now given that he oversees Battaash’s prep each day.
His two wins this season haven’t even shown him to best effect yet, but this likely faster pace should and he can take this under James Doyle from old-timers Caspian Prince and Muthmir.
2.40 Haydock (Lancashire Oaks – Group 2) – ENBIHAAR
An interesting contest and one in which it’s no surprise to see John Gosden with a strong hand given that he’s won the race seven times since 1997.
His Highgarden has a fair chance and, given the fast conditions, could even have the beating of likely favourite Dramatic Queen over this trip having won a Group 3 at the end of last year and she clearly looks as though there is more to come as time goes on.
Her stablemate Enbihaar is even more interesting though. Her form behind Ghostwatch last year reads well, though she was inexperienced and that was over 1m6f, she beat Klassique on her reappearance rather easily at Listed level this term and was narrowly denied by Dramatic Queen at York last time.
She shapes as though she’ll improve more than her narrow conqueror and will want this drop in trip, so she looks fair value to make this John Gosden’s 8th Lancashire Oaks.
3.00 Sandown (Coral Distaff – Listed Race) – HIDDEN MESSAGE
It goes without saying that Beyond Reason is very interesting on her comeback, though she may need it, while Andrew Balding’s Encapsulation can continue to improve and will be justifiably very popular in the betting ring.
John Gosden’s Muchly is another filly on the up and is one who beat the selection well at Ascot earlier in the season, but race conditions could be just right for our filly now and she looks a very big price to land the odds.
Back at Ascot she wasn’t fully ready and got way too far back before staying on very eye-catchingly into fourth place, three lengths behind Muchly. In France last time she took a step forward but in a typically slowly-run French race she again couldn’t show her true worth, though was beaten just 1¾ lengths at Group 2 level.
These eight runners, importantly including Main Edition and Beyond Reason who like to go forward, should ensure the pace is at least reasonable and so we should see the true Hidden Message this time and given her expected greater maturity she can come out on top under jockey Oisin Murphy.
4.45 Sandown (Coral Marathon – Listed Race) – MEKONG
We went for this fellow on his last run but he was never happy that day at York and is worth another shot at odds that if anything offer us more value this time.
He has close form with Ghostwatch and chased home Dee Ex Bee over this course and distance back in May, with a repeat of that form let alone natural improvement meaning he’d be a few pounds too strong for this line-up.
Dermot Weld’s Falcon Eight could head this market and there’s no doubt he has a good profile; an improving four-year-old who has had only four runs. His third in a Group 3 in September and second last time out at Listed level both read OK but they don’t scream that he’s strong enough to beat Mekong yet.
Royal Ascot winner Cleonte is next best as another who could have further improvement in him.
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