Friday 16 August 2019

Saturday 17th & Sunday 18th August 2019: A Divine, Wild and Glorious Message

It’s another terrific weekend of racing this week, if you look far enough afield that is!  With Glorious Goodwood behind us and York’s Ebor meeting very much around the corner we don’t get to see too many tip-top thoroughbreds running, but with pattern action in England, Ireland, France and the USA this weekend there is no shortage of quality.

Newbury stage the Geoffrey Freer Stakes on Saturday in which Morando and Sextant should have a good battle, but there’s no bet for us in that race.  Instead we spread our bets over two days, three countries and two continents in the search for value, begging with a juvenile of some promise at Newbury.

Saturday 17th August

1.50 Newbury (Denford Stakes – Listed Race) – JUAN ELCANO

Despite notable improvement from race one to race two when runner-up in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes over this seven-furlong trip at Newmarket last time on fast ground, Juan Elcano’s debut on a heavy surface at Haydock showed him capable of ploughing through a rain-softened surface and he will get home better than most of this field.

On top of that, he’s frankly the best horse in this race anyway with the contest representing a genuine drop in class for him, surely the idea being that he can grab a win here before perhaps being aimed at a Group 1 race at some point later this term.

Richard Hannon’s Sun Power and Thunderous of the Mark Johnston yard may prove to be best of the rest, though they’ll need to improve or rely on the selection being under-par.

3.25 Deauville (Prix de la Nonette – Group 2) – DIVINE IMAGE

Charlie Appleby loves a trip to France, usually getting a good deal of success and here we find out for sure whether this filly can handle group company on the turf by the French coast.

After a very taking debut on the all-weather at Chelmsford back in December, the daughter of Scat Daddy was sent to Meydan to contest races on the dirt track during the Dubai carnival where she improved greatly over the course of three runs, winning a Listed race and a Group 3 before things went wrong on Dubai World Cup night in the UAE Derby.

She has not reached her ceiling yet and will no doubt be brought into the race at just the right time from stall 7 under Will Buick, likely being good enough to see off Suphala and Etoile while John Gosden’s Terebellum is interesting and can show some serious improvement should the pace be sufficient.

3.35 Newbury (Hungerford Stakes – Group 2) – GLORIOUS JOURNEY

This chap may be a big price but he is potentially worth chancing to smallish stakes in what is a winnable Group 2.

I’d wanted to back him in the Group 3 Chipchase at Newcastle (may have got away with that one given the performance of Invincible Army), but instead he was sent to the seven-furlong Criterion Stakes at Newmarket in which he was beaten narrowly by Limato, a career best performance.

He was then given an assignment in the July Cup and I don’t believe it was frivolous entry, however in being on the wrong part of the track James Doyle had to try something different and decided to blaze a trail up the stands side, even going clear three from home before weakening out of the race.

Given the circumstances that day we can significantly upgrade his performance there, where he was beaten 5¾ lengths by Ten Sovereigns but more eye-catchingly in the context of this race, 3 lengths by Advertise who subsequently won the Prix Maurice de Gheest and had previously taken the Commonwealth Cup, both Group 1 events.

With the trip here arguably more to his liking, Glorious Journey is way over-priced to go well with Safe Voyage, Hey Gaman and Sir Dancealot all solid types at this level who represent the main dangers to the selection.

2.00 Del Mar (Del Mar Oaks – Grade 1) – HIDDEN MESSAGE

Yes, this is 2AM!  I’d recommend just waiting for the result on Sunday morning rather than watching live of course, but Hidden Message is worth a punt anyway.

When trained in England by William Haggas I liked this filly a lot; she made a decent seasonal debut when running on late and ran in a similar fashion next time out over in France.  With things much more to her liking for the Coral Distaff at Sandown on Eclipse day she was tipped again here and was extremely strongly backed for that Listed race.

Having gone clear of the field she had put the race to bed that day before just idling a little, so we can upgrade the bare performance and rating and with more improvement to come she’d compare well with most fillies in the States, certainly on turf.

Having moved over to Simon Callaghan now she will love the faster pace Stateside and she can prove her point right off the bat in this $300,000 race despite having to come wide from gate 14, Flavien Prat being just the right jockey to get her into a position to challenge.

Sunday 18th August

3.25 Deauville (Prix Jean Romanet – Group 1) – WILD ILLUSION

Strictly speaking and although they have the potential to improve, the likes of Worth Waiting and Red Tea don’t appear up to the task of winning a Group 1 while I Can Fly and With You possess the quality but have been beaten by the best fillies around, of which one is Wild Illusion when she is on her game.

Coronet is proven at this level but of course she is a recognised mile-and-a-half horse, whereas the selection has proven time and again that this 1¼-mile trip is right up her alley.

Wild Illusion has been a little disappointing this season in two starts but she’s been freshened up and remains a filly of some serious potential for the rest of the year, with hopefully another Prix de l’Opera targeted at ParisLongchamp.

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