In terms of quality we have not seen a weekend like this in quite a while. Both the English and Irish St Legers are run as well as the Irish Champion Stakes and that trio of races are just the collective tip of the iceberg.
As for betting value some of these contests have provided us with some great opportunities to take favourites on, especially at Doncaster as you’ll see below, although in the Leger itself it seems Logician is very much the one to side with. Here’s the best of the betting action on the flat:
2.05 Chester (Stand Cup Stakes – Listed Race) – BEN VRACKIE
Three-year-olds Manuela De Vega and Durston will undoubtedly be dangerous in receipt of weight around here, but with a bright future still ahead of him over this mile-and-a-half trip John Gosden’s Ben Vrackie could prove to be just too good on this occasion.
His two main rivals have reached marks of 103 and 100 now while the selection is rated 106, but even on those numbers there is yet more we can pick apart. Ben Vrackie reached 104 by the end of his 3yo campaign and started off this year with a very fine second to Baghdad at Royal Ascot, meaning that with natural improvement connections will expect him to reach 110+.
He’s only down at his current level because of a below-par performance at HQ and a 7th at York in the £1million Ebor, not exactly a bad run, but back at this trip he can reach his peak and that should prove too hot for the others to handle.
2.25 Doncaster (Park Stakes – Group 2) – TURJOMAAN
Assuming this race comes down to the selection and likely favourite Shine So Bright, this really is a great betting opportunity at the odds given that Turjomaan appears to be every bit as good as his main rival, possibly better in fact, and yet is in receipt of 3lbs in weight.
Shine So Bright nudged out Laurens last time over this trip across at York whereas Turjomaan was second in a Group 3 at Goodwood, although he will have come on since and will appreciate racing conditions here more. He has had more time off the track to freshen up, will appreciate this drop down in trip and is simply overpriced at around the 3/1 mark for trainer Roger Varian and jockey Dane O’Neill.
3.00 Doncaster (Champagne Stakes – Group 2) – ROYAL CRUSADE
Both Threat and Juan Elcano are proven at this sort of level and both can eventually make their mark as three-year-olds, however taking into account his slow start and the way in which he finished his race the debut performance of Royal Crusade was one of the best you’ll see in a given year and he looks like a Group 1 horse for sure.
The son of Shamrdal is in the Middle Park and the Dewhurst at Newmarket with those races certainly looking his level and so he may take this race in his stride for trainer Charlie Appleby.
3.35 Doncaster (St Leger – Group 1) – LOGICIAN
True, he’s a very short price after his impressive Great Voltigeur win, but with some good value bets elsewhere to help boost the coffers it’s worth mentioning that Logician very much is the rightful shorty for the Leger and can be backed if prices remain at around the even-money mark.
Trainer John Gosden has been quick to point out that his staying the extended mile and six furlong trip isn’t guaranteed and that he’d be better with a little more juice in the ground, but on the former point his running style and profile suggest he’ll see it out as well as any rival in this field and on the latter it’s the same for basically the lot of them.
With those things in mind this taking roan remains the one to be on, with the race for second place being contested by several including Sir Dragonet, Il Paradiso and Sir Ron Priestley.
4.15 Leopardstown (Irish Champion Stakes – Group 1) – ELARQAM
This is a race chock full of quality, just as it should be. We shouldn’t discount Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck here who has more to give yet, but it’s simply a mark of the level this race is at that Ryan Moore rides something else and Madhmoon, who chased him home at Epsom, is more strongly fancied at this trip.
Madhmoon warmed up for this race with an easy success over a mile and he is definitely a 120+ horse in the making, but to exactly what degree we simply don’t know.
Similar things can be said of the impressive looking Headman who has won two races in France very well when things weren’t in his favour at Group 2 level, but again while he is certainly a Group 1 horse in the making we don’t know just how far he can go or whether he’ll do it as early as this season with his trainer sounding cautious.
Ryan Moore rides the admirable filly Magical and they are very worthy favourites. Not outside of the first two in eight runs since winning at Ascot last year, she has made a habit of chasing home Enable but while this would seem easier on paper it could also be true that horses such as Enable and Crystal Ocean have been rather “dragging” the best out of her.
Elarqam is a different proposition. Eventually proving to be the horse we all thought he was before injury, a very fine win at Group 2 level at York was backed up by a rather unlucky-in-running third behind superstars Japan and Crystal Ocean and ahead of King Of Comedy in what looked a vintage Juddmonte International last month. He can go one better here at Group 1 level to ultimately back-up his amazing breeding.
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