Friday, 4 October 2019

Saturday 5th & Sunday 6th October 2019: Ghaiyyath Could Give Enable a Scare in Arc Bid

It’s ‘Enable Day’ on Sunday as the world’s best racehorse goes for the Arc once again, but she is just one of a number of shorties who could all be devastating.

Battaash really should crush his Abbaye field, Line Of Duty continues his comeback and over at Belmont keep an eye on Green Light Go in the Champagne Stakes as he is a viable contender for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  The one’s for value however this weekend are: 

Saturday 5th October

3.25 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes – Group 1) – VERACIOUS

A top-class fillies’ Group 1 with all the right races represented.  Pretty Polly winner Iridessa runs for Joseph O’Brien, one who stepped down in trip successfully to the mile last time out when taking care of dual Guineas scorer Hermosa of Aidan O’Brien’s.

That Irish form is top-notch, there’s little doubt about that, but in Laurens they have to pass a crack six-time Group 1 winner and of course last year’s champion.  She came into the 2018 race at her very best though, something we can’t claim now given that she was beaten behind the aforementioned O’Brien pair in the Matron, and all in all the recent form of these three fillies is very similar.

In Veracious however we have a typical four-year-old Sir Michael Stoute improver.  Always held in high regard, the daughter of Frankel was well ridden to get her maiden Group 1 win in the Falmouth Stakes under Oisin Murphy and she’s been kept off the track since then in preparation for this.

3.25 Longchamp (Prix de Royallieu – Group 1) – ANAPURNA

There are a number of fillies showing the requisite ability to entitle themselves to be in with a place chance, but all being well this could come down to John Gosden’s trio.

Regular readers will know I am a huge fan of Enbihaar and she will appreciate this 1m6f trip, she is also set to go off favourite at sub-2/1.  On the balance of her form that’s fair, but we know nothing of her ability or otherwise to handle ground this soft and her breeding doesn’t offer a hell of a lot of encouragement in that regard.

Lah Ti Dar has shown herself to be excellent at times, at least visually, but she has struggled at Group 1 level more often than not and it’s perhaps very telling that Frankie Dettori has chosen to ride her stablemate and Oaks winner Anapurna instead.

As is so often the case that early in the season for fillies, the Oaks was about sheer stamina and so this trip could play right into the Espom heroine’s hands.  Having been off the track since her classic win, she was given a pipe-opener in the Prix Vermeille when Frankie wisely chose to ride Star Catcher, but the Italian is back on board now and will be expecting much better things, as do I at a juicy price.

3.40 Ascot (Bengough Stakes – Group 3) – TABDEED

An interesting sprint and one that for these speed merchants will take some getting given the stiff finish and the likely soft ground.  One with strong course form is of course Wokingham winner Cape Byron, and while he remains a solid option one feels he’s showing more and more speed as time goes on so conditions may not be quite to his liking.

Donjuan Triumphant has seen better days but remains capable on this going, though he too will have it all do to do beat Owen Burrows’ Tabdeed.  The 4yo is a real improver, one who scored easily on rain-softened ground last time and who is now 4 from five in his fledgling sprint career.

In taking another step forward here, which is expected, he can prove to be the best of this bunch and let’s not forget that he too has strong course and distance form already in the bag.

Sunday 6th October

3.05 Longchamp (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – Group 1) – GHAIYYATH (each-way)

We know this is all about Enable but if there is a value bet to be had, we should grab it.  The wondermare makes what is possibly her last racecourse appearance in this race in pursuit of an unprecedented third Arc victory and it’s felt that as her devastating Yorkshire Oaks win was treated only as a ‘prep’, she may now be in a position to post a career-best performance.

That should be enough, although it can never be guaranteed.  With that we look at whether or not there are any viable betting alternatives and at the current prices the one to be on would have to be Godolphin’s Ghaiyyath.

Always very highly thought of by his top-class yard, the 4yo son of Dubawi went some way to showing how good he is with an astonishing 14-length win in the Grosser Preis von Baden.  The usual anti-handicapper people scoffed at his new rating of 127 which frankly is a nonsensical view, and if any horse in the race can put it up to Enable on pure ability then it will be him.

The fact however that at potential double-figure prices he is a good each-way bet remains very attractive and so that is the advice; to back Ghaiyyath each-way.

Magical has almost made a career out of chasing Enable home and should not be good enough to beat her, while stable companion Japan looks very good but may or may not appreciate the ground.  Sottsass is probably the pick of the home team, though I don’t share his trainer’s views on him being “special”.

5.05 Longchamp (Prix de la Foret – Group 1) – GLORIOUS JOURNEY

This is a competitive race staged at a rather in between trip of seven furlongs but it’s one in which Glorious Journey can claim a first win at the top level.

He is improving steadily over time, ran well for a long way in the July Cup, loves this trip and recorded an easy Group 2 win on soft ground last time.  Charlie Appleby had the option of running Space Blues in this, but instead relies on the selection who is a very good price.

City Light, One Master and Germain raider Waldfpad are all solid place options too.

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