Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn take centre stage in the States on Saturday evening, the latter hosting two stakes races including the Carousel in which Breeders’ Cup runner-up Bellafina makes her comeback, albeit at a likely short price.
Saturday 25th April
21:53 Gulfstream Park (Unbridled Stakes) – ATTACHMENT RATE
Run over a trip of just over a mile, this $75,000 race features several horses who were on the Triple Crown trail until the coronavirus halted the proceedings.
Todd Pletcher brings maiden winner Dr Post to the race and he looks set to go off favourite, though even allowing for improvement his form thus far doesn’t justify his morning line odds of 8/5.
Relentless Dancer ran fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby last time and filled the same position in a stakes race behind Tiz The Law before that, something that may well mean he’s been somewhat dragged along by top-class opposition with his overall ability having been arguably slightly exaggerated.
The most fascinating horse in the race, despite his draw in gate 7, is Dale Romans’ Attachment Rate and he gets the call. A winner round here in a maiden, he was a good third last time behind Mischievious Alex and Untitled in the Gotham Stakes, the latter having won since, and he may represent some value.
22:45 Oaklawn Park (Bachelor Stakes) – ECHO TOWN
This is a six-furlong sprint for the three-year-olds, a race in which former Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favourite Eight Rings makes his return for superstar handler Bob Baffert.
His overall form, and that of the Juvenile for that matter, doesn’t really match up to scrutiny so while his work has been good of late backing him at short odds on his first start down in trip doesn’t seem such a great idea.
He may also be challenged for the lead by contender Long Weekend which may not help matters, so the wise play is likely to be Steve Asmussen’s Echo Town instead.
Already reaching a good level in three starts this year, Ricardo Santana’s mount clearly has more to give and at morning line odds of 9/2 he’s just too tempting to pass up as a betting proposition.
Sunday 26th April
It’s an important Group 1 day in Hong Kong with the action kicking off very early and all eyes will be on star attraction Beauty Generation who is odds-on for the Champions Mile. Better value bets are available though, including these three:
07:50 Sha Tin (Chairman’s Sprint Prize – Group 1) – AETHERO
A very fine six-furlong sprint race, one in which for my money John Moore’s three-year-old Aethero holds all the aces.
His win here in November when beating the older horses was excellent and, while he didn’t fire quite as well on his next two starts, he can be forgiven and so appears at the weights to have too much if he is on his A-game under jockey Zac Purton.
Both Hot King Prawn and Thanks Forever can have a say in what is overall a very competitive event, but from the 5 barrier it would seem very unlikely that we won’t at the very least get a good run for our money with Aethero with the last hope being that he is allowed to go off at decent odds on the tote.
10:15 Sha Tin (Handicap) – TRANSCENDENT
This is another competitive sprint, this time under handicap conditions, but considering a forecast price of 4/1 and his very best form putting him well above the others at these weights we cannot ignore Transcendent.
Tony Cruz’s four-year-old reached a level that would see him very well handicapped in Hong Kong when trained in France last summer by Fabrice Chappet and so, while he hasn’t yet reached the same heights since moving east, he could yet prove to be well-in.
Having been off the track for nine months he made his debut in March at Sha Tin, winning nicely enough in a handicap off a mark of 80. It’s possible he “bounced” next time when beaten at the same venue in a more valuable race off 85, but with his fitness supposedly spot-on now he still looks kindly treated overall.
He races here off 86 but seems a good deal better than that, entitling him to be favourite ahead of challengers Computer Patch, Shining Ace and Gold Chest who all rate as dangers.
10:50 Sha Tin (Handicap) – BUTTERFIELD
Another valuable handicap finishes off the card, this time over a mile and with well over £100,000 offered to the winner we can bet this will be competitive.
There’s nothing wrong with the form racked-up by Preciousship, Hezthewonforus and Monica who are remain strong each-way contenders, however having arguably achieved better form already at these weights and having at least a year on his rivals the value is the Brazilian bred Butterfield.
Drawn in 5 which should be absolutely fine, Butterfield should be able to get into a good position early and take advantage of the drop down in trip he is taking this weekend which should be very much to his liking.
Progressing nicely over the winter when running over 8-9 furlongs, his form took a slight dip last time when he was beaten at odds-on over a mile-and-a-quarter. In fairness he still only lost out by a neck that day, and with the perfect three-way rest between races a return to a mile we should see him take another step forward.
Should Butterfield manage any more improvement at all off this mark of 94 he has to go close, the final piece of the puzzle being the booking of Joao Moreira who should ensure he gets all the help he needs from up top.
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