The doldrums continue in Britain, though perhaps not for long, while France makes a racing return on Monday and with a vengeance too.
For now though we concentrate on the early morning races down under and one fairly deep turf event at Gulfstream Park on Saturday evening, with all three horses holding very strong chances.
06:45 Doomben (BRC Sprint Handicap – Group 3) – KEMENTARI
A good quality race, one in which many locals are going for Outback Barbie given her fine record when fresh. However, it seems this is the reason for the choice but she has her work cut out here at the weights and is in fact 3 from 5 after a break, not the 100% scorer her reputation appears to project.
Godolphin’s Kementari on the other hand seems rock solid at the top of the weights and looks absolutely sure to put up a bold bid. Interestingly, James Cummings’ 5yo is favourite on the early odds in Britain but seems likely to give best at the head of the market locally to Vega One, making our horse potentially good value on the Aussie tote.
Kementari’s recent form is consistently good, including when he was beaten by one of our selections Vegadaze at Rosehill in March in a similar race to this and he gets the vote to go two better than on his last two Group 3 starts and take this $175,000 race.
07:31 Morphettville (South Australian Derby – Group 1) – DALASAN
A good quality race for the three-year-olds and on the face of it the contest is very competitive, 14 runners lining up. However, odds-wise this is dominated by three horses with Dalasan, Warning and Russian Camelot all clear of the rest.
The choice is Dalasan, ridden by Jason Holder and trained by Leon MacDonald and Andrew Gluyas. Last running 56 days ago and hopefully appreciative of the break, the chestnut colt is on a hat-trick now and seems to be improving despite having had eleven starts already, more than some of his main rivals.
While locally there appears to be some doubt over his stamina for this 1m4½f trip having been doing his winning over a mile following a third placed finish in Group 3 company over six furlongs, it’s the race distance that in fact gives me greater confidence.
He is by Dalakhani and really should appreciate this greater test, while his form so far stands out in the context of this field.
Warning has had a few chances now and while he is a mile-and-a-half winner on softer ground, he too has been doing better over shorter trips and is by Declaration of War, albeit out of a Galileo mare.
Russian Camelot may be more comfortable going over further than his recent seven-furlong effort, though again both in terms of breeding and experience it could be that this trip on this sort of occasion is a little too much for him.
21:29 Gulfstream Park (Sunshine Forever Stakes) – SOCIAL PARANOIA
Gulfstream have come up with more quality than normal for this $75,000 stakes race, with two Todd Pletcher runners as well as representatives from Barclay Tagg, Michael Maker and Graham Motion in the full 12-runner field.
The race appears to revolve however around Mark Casse’s War Of Will. The 2019 Preakness Stakes winner should perhaps have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf back in 2018 and is said to be even better on the grass than he is on the dirt, making his trainer and his supporters cause for much optimism.
However, while he will always be a Preakness winner, that race was not the strongest Triple Crown race you’ll ever see, he’s drawn wide here and there is every chance he’ll need the run having not been seen out since a below-par effort in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year.
He does receive weight, but really the profile of Todd Pletcher’s Social Paranoia excites me more in the context of this race and he is a horse who is set to improve over this extra half-furlong have been very impressive on his first start of 2020.
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