Even with the Irish 2000 Guineas card in serious doubt as of Friday afternoon, we have an incredibly busy Saturday on our hands.
The recommendation, given the number of selections and the bad weather all round, is to keep stakes small and spread your bank around.
1.20 Haydock (Handicap) – MYSTICAL DAWN
John & Thady Gosden’s Side Shot may yet attract the majority of the money, however there is no guarantee he’ll act well on the very soft ground.
Charlie Appleby’s Mystical Dawn however, definitely does. Having only his fourth race and with lots of improvement to come, this is a horse who stepped up his game as a runner-up last time but when going back to look at his debut his chances become even more apparent.
At Newmarket last October, Mystical Dawn won nicely on his bow, staying on well over the mile. That was on genuine soft ground, he had Derby favourite Bolshoi Ballet back in third and as a son of Sea The Stars promises to move forward again now over this tough mile-and-a-half trip. Adam Kirby rides, Classic Lord is fancied for a place.
1.40 Goodwood (Handicap) – AMTIYAZ
Although set to be an outsider in the market, Amtiyaz has plenty to offer in the context of this 1m6f contest.
The Gosden horse, ridden by Martin Harley who has been going superbly, has been nothing if not consistent in nine career starts to date.
Eight of his runs have been on the all-weather, but the way he has seen out his races on the Tapeta at Newcastle and Wolverhampton tends to make one think he should handle the soft ground conditions here.
He finished his year with a two-mile win at Kempton, an easy one, and having had a decent pipe-opener this term it’s a surprise to see him at double-figure prices. Prince Alex has a strong chance too for Ralph Beckett but is far too short in the market.
2.05 York (Handicap) – AJYAALL
Gone are the days of worrying about horses making their seasonal reappearance, so there is more than just a suggestion that the talented thrice raced Ajyaall can resume his sharp upward trajectory for William Haggas.
The trip, ground and track should all be fine for him, he’s now been gelded to settle him down further, and based on the form of his win at Wolverhampton and even just natural progression he could have half a stone in hand on the likes of Escobar and Zip at the weights. Cieren Fallon rides.
2.25 Haydock (Handicap) – POSTILEO
This is a very competitive handicap, one that given the two-mile trip and how hard Haydock is to see out on heavy ground will be a very attritional one.
In a tight market there will be support for Vindolanda, Hiroshima, Dash Of Spice and others, however two old rivals may well be fighting this out with placing perhaps being reversed.
In the Chester Plate last time around, Roger Varian’s Postileo chased home Venetia Williams’s Green Book and while there were four lengths separating them at the line, the lighter-raced of the two can get revenge.
Chester is unique. Postileo could have got closer with luck, there is a 7lb weight turnaround, he was favourite last time, he has improvement to come and the two furlong drop in trip will also help.
2.40 York (Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes – Group 3) – BELIEVE IN LOVE
In terms of getting value, with any luck there will be money for Irish-trained horses Mighty Blue and Flor De La Luna which may well mean an increase in the odds for Roger Varian’s Believe In Love.
Making her first start for 210 days, the four-year-old filly is likely to have improved plenty since last seen, not that there was anything wrong with her form.
In winning her fourth race on the bounce, Believe In Love was mightily impressive last August at Newmarket and finished off the year with a cosy win in a Group 3 in France.
She wants this mile-and-three-quarter trip, the ground is fine and she looks well capable of defying her 3lb penalty.
2.50 Goodwood (Handicap) – ALDAARY
This is a race that could come down to the two Shadwell horses. John & Thady Gosden’s Tawleed won nicely last time and was rated highly on my private ratings.
That’s encouraging considering the horse who came out on top in the conditions, impressive last time out winner Aldaary (William Haggas), is the choice of rider Jim Crowley between the two and he can win this before going up into Group company the next time we see him.
3.40 Newmarket (Handicap) – ALMIGHWAR
I’d expect to see strong support during the afternoon for Lostwithiel for men of the moment George Boughey and Rossa Ryan, though it’s time for one that has shown lots of class to finally get his head in front this season.
Gosden/Shadwell runner Almighwar was beaten only by the highly progressive Al Zaraqaan first time up, then looked all over the winner at Newbury over the two-mile trip but was beaten a neck.
He was the ante-post favourite for the Chester Cup, which is important to remember, but coming down to this 1m6f trip may be best for him at this point. Charlie Appleby’s Global Storm is the overnight favourite and rates as the main danger.
3.50 York (Handicap) – PENDLETON
A tough five-furlong sprint, but one in which a small bet on Pendleton may well be rewarded. Kept in training having not run since a good 2019 season, he was brought back by classy sprint expert Michael Dods to put up a career best when returning in second at Ascot two weeks ago and this looks well within his compass.
4.10 Haydock (Temple Stakes – Group 2) – QUE AMORO
Speaking of Dods’s sprinters, his Que Amoro looks the best value punt in the Group 2 Temple Stakes.
It’s a tight enough race with Liberty Beach, Lady In France and Keep Busy all holding chances, but the five-year-old mare’s progressive form having won a Listed Race at Ayr last season before chasing Battaash home in the Nunthorpe rates as the best all things considered. Paul Mulrennan takes the ride.
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