Sunday afternoon sees a potentially explosive Group 1 battle taking place in France, as a now fit Palace Pier takes on Poetic Flare and Alpine Star in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville.
For us, it’s mostly about the domestic action however as we kick off a weekend featuring eight value bets beginning with a Newmarket handicap on Friday night.
Friday 13th August 2021
7.38 Newmarket (Handicap) – HYDROS
An otherwise relatively underwhelming card at HQ finishes off on Friday with this fairly classy one-mile handicap on the July Course.
Sir Michael Stoute may hold the cards here, his Thibaan still looking potentially ahead of the handicapper and holding a chance here however it’s the more lightly-raced Hydros from his camp that gets the vote.
Richard Kingscote is on hand to take the ride on a four-year-old who made a fairly pleasing comeback over the course and distance recently following a long break during which he had wind surgery, the son of Frankel doubtless being very comfortable in these conditions and able to now show his very best.
Saturday 14th August 2021
1.45 Newbury (Denford Stakes – Listed Race) – BAYSIDE BOY
After chasing home Native Trail in the Superlative Stakes last time out, it’s not surprising to see Andrew Balding’s Masakela at the top of the market.
That was a tough race for him, his third to date, and it may be that he doesn’t take the step forward right now that many would expect. Even if he does, he’s up against an impressive pair of first-time-out winners here who could reach a high level.
Seattle King is one of those for the Ralph Beckett yard, but easily the most intriguing horse in the line-up is Bayside Boy who is counted on here.
Roger Varian’s colt was 9/1 on debut, but cruised into his race over course and distance after a tardy start to win in very impressive fashion. Given his prep and the way in which he won, lots of improvement from race one to race two is expected and he already holds entries in Group 2 and Group 1 races later in the season.
2.00 Newmarket (Fillies’ Handicap) – QUENELLE D’OR
Goolwa, Midrarr and Eileendover will all be fancied for this, but frankly I was very surprised to see Hugo Palmer’s Quenelle D’Or open up at such a big price on Thursday.
The Golden Horn filly, with a record of two wins and three thirds in 8 races, has run by my reckoning to ratings of at least 90+ recently. She’s improving overall, hasn’t always had the rub of the green, and on a line through some of her past rivals can reach a mark closer to 100 now.
She gets in here off only 88 and so seems obviously well handicapped to me and too good to miss at the potential odds.
2.55 Newbury (Handicap) – ARATUS
Ajyaall has the potential to improve further yet, while Sunset Bay comes into this race on a hat-trick and obviously cannot be dismissed lightly. The credentials of Aratus are just too impressive to ignore, however.
Clive Cox’s three-year-old, still a colt and having only his third ever run, opened up last season by being narrowly beaten by the now 103 rated Oo De Lally. He won very easily next time out before an enforced break and a breathing operation.
Upon returning to the track at Doncaster last month, Aratus destroyed his field by a very comfortable 7½ lengths which to my eye should have handed him a rating of around the 105 mark. He was given only 94 instead, so given that and the likelihood of further improvement coming in conditions we already know suit him, he really should make short work of this field at the weights.
3.25 Deauville (Prix Guillaume d’Ornano – Group 2) – DERAB
It’s all about Sunday and the Marois for most British raiders, however the Palace Pier combo of Frankie Dettori and the Gosdens may well strike as early as Saturday in this very valuable Group 2 race.
More than £200,000 is up for grabs to the winner of this event, and it’s Derab who has the best profile. A very taking winner at Newmarket back in May, the Derby was even talked about for this Sea The Stars colt but he was ultimately held back for the French version.
Things didn’t go his way that day, but he ran extremely well in defeat behind Real World last time, strong form indeed, and with more progression likely he looks a few pounds ahead of the likes of Millebosc, Pretty Tiger, Highland Avenue and the rest.
3.30 Newbury (Hungerford Stakes – Group 2) – AL SUHAIL
This is a very intriguing contest. Despite being worth around a quarter of a race run at the same level five minutes earlier in France, it is far more competitive which says a lot about British racing right now both on the positive and negative sides.
D’bai is no forlorn hope, Dreamloper has every chance, Sacred won the Nell Gwyn this season and now gets her trip and ground while the Shadwell team run Laneqash, Danyah and Motakhayyel who could all be very similar in terms of ability.
The one to be on however should be Godolphin’s first choice Al Suhail. Supplemented for last year’s 2000 Guineas, this chap has always been held in high regard and despite flopping in the classic came back to register a devasting Listed-class performance thereafter.
Having been gelded, he’s returned to Britain from Dubai and has already posted a very strong 1¾-length third behind Tilsit which is great form, with a new career peak now likely and the seven furlongs looking perfect for him. He’s still thought of as a potential Group 1 horse, something we shouldn’t forget.
3.40 Newmarket (Handicap) – BANDINELLI
A small Class 4 handicap over a mile-and-a-half, this isn’t the sort of race in which we’d usually find a potentially classy runner who remains well handicapped by this point of the season.
Bandinelli however is just that type. Having already won at Wolverhampton in January, his very close form giving away 7lbs to Marshall Plan, now rated 92, and Golden Flame who is now rated 91 shows you where he most likely stands for real.
Here, he runs off a mark of only 85 and now that he’s been gelded, he can get right back on track.
4.00 Newbury (Handicap) – CAMELOT TALES
Tawaareq is getting better and Arctic Vega has a chance, but Camelot Tales is still climbing the ladder quickly himself and was only defeated last time because of running too freely. Buick knows him now and can guide him to his third win.
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