As the form only just begins to settle down at the beginning of the jumps season proper, many of our betting opportunities still come on the Flat where we know far more about the current well-being of each contender.
It was a great weekend for us at the Breeders’ Cup last week, and while this time around the races are less auspicious, they are still there for the taking as we get stuck into all-weather action at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, along with a little jumping action at Wetherby.
Nb: For jumps racing see my coverage of the November Meeting here.
11.40 Lingfield (Maiden Stakes) – UNTOLD MYSTERY
Charlie Appleby has had the most amazing year and luckily, we’ve gone along for the ride on many occasions.
It can’t all be about Adayar, Hurricane Lane and Native Trail though, as even his supposed lesser-lights can often be worth backing.
He has a chance in both divisions of the opening mile-and-a-quarter maiden stakes at Lingfield on Saturday, with Untold Mystery interesting especially if he is reasonably well supported in the market.
Army Sergeant ran OK on debut for Saeed bin Suroor, but at 22/1 not much was expected and so a huge improvement also doesn’t seem very likely at this stage.
Golden Disc is in a similar position, while Three Start has the best form after two runs including a runner-up effort on the soft at Redcar. On breeding this isn’t guaranteed to suit him, which leaves the door open for Untold Mystery.
His debut at Nottingham wasn’t quite what was hoped for either, but it’s up there with those of his rivals and should he just reach the level now that was expected of him on his first start he’d have enough to win this under William Buick who is now back from the States.
12.10 Lingfield (Maiden Stakes) – INDEPENDENT ACT
Park Street is the one with form here, and though improvement could now be forthcoming after a gelding operation, it isn’t guaranteed and he doesn’t set the highest form standard for the debut runners to chase.
The two to concentrate on represent Godolphin. Saeed bin Suroor’s Game Master will be supported under Hollie Doyle, but based on the trainer’s debut runners, those of sire Postponed and even based on the admittedly good winning debut at this track of dam Sundrop he wouldn’t be reaching the sort of level to overly trouble the typical Charlie Appleby debutant unless he’s well above average.
Independent Act is that runner. He is out of a Manduro mare, so this trip looks ideal, while he is also a Dubawi meaning the quick nature of the track should also suit.
Should he be fit enough to do himself justice first time out, which is almost always the case with runners from this stable, then he is likely to be good enough to challenge.
3.05 Lingfield (Rose Stakes – Listed Race) – GOOD EFFORT
In the first of two Listed races at Lingfield to round off their card, it could be worth sticking with last year’s Rose Stakes winner Good Effort to double up.
Ismail Mohammed’s runner was landing a five-timer when taking this race twelve months ago, but his form hasn’t dropped overall and in fact he was a winner at Deauville in August.
It’s best that we draw a line under his disappointing run at Belmont in New York last month, but the fact they event sent him all that way to challenge for a Grade 2 shows you what they think of this horse.
He still has it, and his speed around Lingfield should be too much for Bahrain Pride, who could surprise, Fivethousandtoone who remains capable, Exalted Angel and The Last Lion who returns after fully five years off the track having had an ultimately unsuccessful spell on the stud roster.
Harry’s Bar is an obvious danger and is well represented in the market, but may just not have the speed to live with the selection if all goes well under Jim Crowley.
3.10 Wetherby (Handicap Hurdle) – FIRST IMPRESSION
We make a little foray to the jumps for this Class 3 handicap hurdle, one in which we can take advantage of a well handicapped and fit runner in the shape of First Impression.
John Quinn’s runner was a course and distance winner last November as a juvenile before finishing a good fifth in a strong race at Ascot thereafter.
He’s been running on the Flat since then and in fact was a strong second to Dubai Souq on unsuitable soft ground at Redcar just under two weeks ago.
He’s fit, he has Brian Hughes up top, he’s well handicapped and he is already proven over the track and trip, so there’s nothing not to like.
In terms of his key rivals, Saint Arvans and Champagne City stand out from the others. Both have solid profiles in the context of this race, but ultimately aren’t as far ahead of the assessors as the selection which is the main consideration in a handicap race.
3.40 Lingfield (Churchill Stakes – Listed Race) – HARROVIAN
This is all about the return of Pyledriver. William Muir and Chris Grassick’s four-year-old has some big international targets ahead of him, making this all about prep.
A good winner of the Great Voltigeur last season, he took down Al Aasy in the Group 1 Coronation Cup back in June and while that is obviously top-class form, he does have challenges to overcome.
He can’t be 100% wound-up for this you’d have thought, he is also likely to need more of a test than 1¼ miles around Lingfield. He carries a 7lb penalty as well which is nothing to scoff at and he also drifted in the market as soon as prices were released.
The one who may take advantage is Harrovian. The Gosdens, both with Frankie Dettori and today’s jockey Rab Havlin up top, have often judged such races at Lingfield to perfection.
Harrovian himself is no mug either. A one-length third to Solid Stone in Group 3 company this year was followed-up with a win in a strong conditions race at Doncaster where he beat Sinjaari off level weights.
There’s more to come from him and he can reach 110+ for sure, something that would leave Pyledriver needing to effectively run to a mark of 118 which is far from guaranteed in these circumstances.
7.00 Wolverhampton (Conditions Stakes) – WEDDING DANCE
A small but interesting conditions race over seven furlongs, one in which Charlie Appleby has yet another outstanding contender.
His Wedding Dance was climbing the ladder quickly last season, finishing a close runner-up in France at Group 3 level before encountering a problem.
After nearly 14 months off the track, her form appeared to have held when she returned at Newmarket with a decent sixth in Listed company, with natural improvement from that race putting her in the clear here.
Tomouh is consistent and may once again run well, while Rising Star may go off favourite and can also challenge.
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