It’s Scottish Grand National day at Ayr, while Newbury and Chepstow also keep the jump racing action going for another Saturday.
There are early classic trials at Leopardstown and all-weather action at Wolverhampton and Lingfield. The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues with the Arkansas Derby, in which filly Secret Oath should go well, and the Florida Derby too, both Grade 1’s, one of which we have a bet in.
Our three afternoon selections all face the starter within ten minutes of each other, so be prepared for punting to be fast and furious!
3.00 Ayr (Future Champion Novices’ Chase – Grade 2) – MINELLA DRAMA
Brian Hughes is probably the best jockey in the business, a real champion in my book, while trainer Donald McCain is approaching 150 winners for the season.
McCain has gone on record to say that his Minella Drama can be tricky and they’re taking a chance on going left-handed with him at Ayr, but he undoubtedly has the class to win this race and he is priced up more than fairly to get the job done.
Second to My Drogo in the Mersey Hurdle last year, he’s done well over fences with Hughes’ help and was a facile winner of the Grade 2 Altcar Novices’ Chase at Haydock in January.
Known to be a little in-and-out, he wasn’t so good last time when running behind Pic D’Orhy and Millers Bank in the Pendil, but if he’s back to his best here then he has plenty in his favour.
He does have to give 5lbs to Do Your Job, but he could be significantly better than Michael Scudamore’s runner who obtained his 144 rating in a competitive handicap at Newcastle.
Minella Drama has more to give I reckon, has a year on his nearest rival and can be expertly guided around the track.
3.05 Lingfield (Fillies’ Handicap) – VALENTINKA
We have just the six runners for this fillies’ handicap and at first glance it looks very tight between four of them.
Sayifyouwill is very well fancied for Amanda Perrett, coming into the race on the back of two wins in February and March and it could be that the handicapper hasn’t caught up with her yet.
Her wins did come at Kempton Park though and she wasn’t so good at Lingfield the time before, so given the change of venue and the fact she’s up another 3lbs it may well be that she just struggles a bit.
Verreaux Eagle represents Ed Dunlop and Tom Marquand and is another that has to prove she can handle Lingfield. A winner over seven furlongs (today’s trip) at Kempton last October, she’s since been running on the Tapeta at Newcastle and Wolverhampton without landing too heavy a blow.
Dubai Lady is a huge danger for the George Boughey yard. Only three runs into her career, the four-year-old was a debut winner at Newcastle in the winter before finishing second at Kempton. She was down the field last time but clearly has ability, in fact losing out may have just saved her going up the handicap.
The best of the bunch for me is Marco Botti’s Valentinka. An improving four-year-old, Valentinka was a speedy-looking winner on this track in November over a mile with the drop in trip surely suiting now. Second last time over this distance, she perhaps couldn’t show her best at Wolverhampton with today’s venue much more suitable.
3.10 Leopardstown (1000 Guineas Trial Stakes – Group 3) – SACRED BRIDGE
It’s an important day at Leopardstown with three prominent classic trials taking place. Though betting opportunities I feel are slim in the 2000 Guineas Trial and the Ballysax Stakes, it could be that we are being given too generous a price in this race about a filly we already know to be top class.
The filly in question is Sacred Bridge. Owned and bred by Juddmonte, trained by Ger Lyons and ridden by Colin Keane, the most immediate of boxes are already ticked but there’s more substance to this selection than that.
After making an excellent debut ahead of Agartha, who has to give her 3lbs today, two more juvenile wins followed for Sacred Bridge before she was sent to the Curragh for a Group 3 affair.
After destroying her field there, she was regarded as one of the best in the business within her age group, going off 13/8 favourite for the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket.
She didn’t run well in truth behind Tenebrism and the likes, but she could have gone off the boil by then and we’re hoping she was/is ready for a step up in trip to this seven furlongs.
By sprinter Bated Breath, she is out of a Beat Hollow mare so there is hope that she can see this out, which is the only sticking point for her despite the presence of an Aidan O’Brien debut winner (Contarelli Chapel), the aforementioned Agartha and Dermot Weld’s Homeless Songs.
11.38 Gulfstream Park (Florida Derby – Grade 1) – CLASSIC CAUSEWAY
Along with the Santa Anita Derby, the Florida Derby is the most important Kentucky Derby prep race these days and so whoever wins this will most likely head the market after this weekend for the big one on May 7.
Classic Causeway is a horse I’ve been watching for a long time and he is in this contest, in fact he is the surprising third-favourite with American pundits after his Tampa Bay Derby win suggesting they weren’t too impressed by him.
A real improver, Classic Causeway is one of the last potential top-class horses by Giant’s Causeway that we’ll see and he has gone from third in the Breeders’ Futurity to second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, to now a double winner having taken down the Sam F. Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby.
I reckon he’s the best of this bunch. Charge It is impressive-looking but has beaten nothing of note yet, Simplification won the Fountain of Youth last time but was behind White Abarrio before in the Holy Bull and he could be the biggest danger.
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