Friday 6th & Saturday 7th May 2022 - One to Rule in Victoria Cup

What a fantastic weekend of racing action we have in store. Chester’s May meeting finishes up on Friday, while Ascot race over both days.

There is a nice mixed card at Haydock featuring the Swinton Hurdle and the Spring Trophy and over at Lingfield they host the Derby and Oaks trials along with another Group 3.

In the States, Churchill Downs boasts a ton of graded action headlined by the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.

Friday 6th May 2022

3.45 Chester (Conditions Stakes) – KING’S LYNN 

This is a five-furlong conditions race that could easily be a Listed contest. In it, a number of them carry penalties making the 6lb extra King’s Lynn shoulders look not too bad.

Andrew Balding’s five-year-old showed some great form last year. A Listed winner at Haydock, the Queen’s runner was then a staying-on seventh in the King’s Stand before turning out quickly to finish a close third in the Wokingham.

He finished his year with a strong Listed win at Doncaster and he seems certain to go for glory at the top level soon. He’s also drawn ideally in stall one.

Plenty will be expected of young contender Flaming Rib at what is now Hugo Palmer’s home track, though he is similarly penalised and may struggle. Acklam Express is best of the rest.

5.40 Ascot (Handicap) – KHATHIK 

Ascot’s Friday closer is a competitive-looking straight mile handicap and it may turn out that Khathik is ideally drawn to take advantage of what I think is a lenient handicap mark.

William Buick’s mount was good when winning on debut at Kempton over the winter, but perhaps didn’t fully appreciate things being slower at Newcastle and Southwell.

On the turf he can reach a new level and looks well in, with Duelist, Court Of Session and Paradias also expected to go well.

9.04 Churchill Downs (Eight Belles Stakes – Grade 2) – MATAREYA 

Godolphin’s Matareya was well backed for the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes last autumn, with an eye on the Breeders’ Cup and the Kentucky Oaks.

That didn’t work out, but they went down in trip to find the key with her. This year, she has demolished fields over six and seven furlongs, this race being run over the latter, and she could be much the best filly in this line up.

10.51 Churchill Downs (Kentucky Oaks – Grade 1) – SECRET OATH 

We landed this $1.25 million race last year with Malathaat and can hopefully repeat the trick.

The one with the best recent form according to many is Nest and it would be no surprise if she won this to be fair. She’s not unbeatable though and on a line through those she’s beaten, my original fancy looks better placed to win. That filly is Secret Oath for the super combination of D Wayne Lukas and Luis Saez.

After racking up a hat-trick by winning a Grade 3 ever so easily at Oaklawn in February, Secret Oath was thrown in against the boys in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and in fact she went off a hot favourite.

She suffered a horrible trip there, but still managed third behind Derby hope Cyberknife. She’s now had a change of jockey which counts for plenty.

In December she beat Matareya by some 8¼ lengths, while Yuugiri was more than 9 lengths behind her at Oaklawn. Yuugiri won well in Grade 3 company when last seen and is in opposition again here.

Saturday 7th May 2022

2.20 Ascot (Buckhounds Stakes – Listed Race) – MANDOOB 

Al Aasy runs here, his defection from Chester changing the odds and stopping me from backing Megallan in the Huxley. Stowell undoubtedly has a race like this in him too, but Mandoob is a silly price.

Still with Brian Meehan although no longer owned by Shadwell, Mandoob has some classy form. He beat Marshall Plan and Princess Nadia in his first races before chasing home the excellent Yibir.

He’s been off a while, but he’s had a breathing op and his team have been waiting for the right conditions considering he was entered at Chester during the week.

4.05 Ascot (Victoria Cup Handicap) – ONE RULER 

After a fine juvenile campaign that led to an Autumn Stakes win, like Coroebus, and a close second to McSwiney in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity, One Ruler was once Godolphin’s top prospect.

In fact, on the gallops last spring he was thought of as still their no.1 ahead of 2000 Guineas runner-up Master Of The Seas.

Things didn’t work out for him as a three-year-old but he did take in the Guineas, the Derby and Royal Ascot and Charlie Appleby has not lost faith.

Back in January he was a very good third to Real World, rated 118, with subsequent Group 1 winner Alfareeq between the pair and clearly, he is getting back to his best.

The Dubawi’s can often get quicker as they get older with this stiff seven furlongs looking perfect now. Darkness is next on the list.

4.40 Ascot (Fillies’ Handicap) – AFTER THE RAIN 

After The Rain was tough and determined in winning her second race at Windsor four weeks ago and she is clearly still improving.

This is not a particularly strong race, while we all know now that Harry Davies is value for a fair few of the 7lbs he claims which will also help.

11.57 Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby – Grade 1) – TIZ THE BOMB 

Tiz The Bomb is trading at around 25/1 for the Kentucky Derby but he has some rock-solid form and I have a theory regarding the Tapeta surface that we can play on at these inflated odds.

Tapeta tends to ride slower meaning races on it, especially where clock-watchers are concerned, are often marked down and should really be upgraded for handicapping purposes.

As we’ve seen at Newcastle with the likes of Stradivarius, Without Parole, Enable and plenty of Charlie Appleby horses, they tend to come out strong having raced on this surface and it could be the case with our Derby horse too.

Tiz The Bomb was actually a fine second to Modern Games in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, the horse who is now favourite for the French 2000 Guineas, before a change of ownership led to a change of tactics.

Flying under the radar somewhat, Ken McPeek’s colt has won two races on Tapeta very easily this spring at Turfway Park and comes into this as an outsider in most people’s eyes.

In truth his form is excellent and must be upgraded. He’s drawn in gate 9 which is ideal and has everything needed to put in a massive run.

Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter must be feared, Messier may yet turn around Santa Anita Derby form with Taiba, with White Abarrio, Zandon and Charge It all also capable of big runs.