It’s King George weekend at Ascot as the Flat season continues to hurtle on apace.
We’ve now reached the midsummer showpiece event, with Glorious Goodwood to come next week, and given the recent weather we’ll have real summer ground to race on too.
We begin with three bets on Friday’s cards.
Friday 22nd July 2022
4.50 Ascot (Handicap) – MR BIG STUFF
Mr Big Stuff had close form with some really good types before heading to the London Gold Cup, not least Desert Crown and Al Qareem. At Newbury, he was unlucky behind Israr in a race that always produces winners and he can improve again over this trip.
True Courage, Al Azhar and Saratoga Gold were next on the list.
7.25 York (Lyric Stakes – Listed Race) – JUDITH
There may be more to come from the 101-rated Achelois, but Andrew Balding’s filly hasn’t won any of her last six so a big improvement in form seems unlikely.
Poptronic should perhaps be shorter in the betting. She’s now rated 107 after winning a Group 3 at Newcastle. She’s penalised 5lbs for that, but has won three in a row and is getting better while Via Sistina (97) has plenty more to give if ready to go after a long break.
That’s the sort of level to aim at then and clearly John Gosden, a master at training black type fillies, thinks he can surpass that with Judith.
The Normandie Stud filly is two from two now. She found things really quite easy in running to a mark of around 90 on debut before winning easily second time out. She has the quality to take this race before moving up into Group company.
7.55 York (Handicap) – SILVER GUNN
In a competitive Class 2 race over York’s famous 1m2½f course, Lucander, Marching Army and Spirit Dancer will all be popular with punters. The one I like best however is Silver Gunn.
Trained by Marco Botti, Silver Gunn has run well at Windsor the last three times but needs something different now. He’s still improving overall and should be loving conditions here. Neil Callan rides.
Saturday 23rd July 2022
2.12 Newcastle (Beeswing Handicap) – SOUND ANGELA
There was a time when the Beeswing was a valuable Group 3 race, not a handicap on an underwhelming Ladies Day card at Newcastle worth less than £7,000 to the winner.
The 25,000 crowd and decent prizes for best-dressed, at least for the ladies anyway, should be accompanied by good quality action on the track but it’s not the case.
In any event, something has to win and Sound Angela could prove to be very well handicapped in the modern version of the Beeswing. Roger Varian’s filly looks way better than an 84-horse so can win this if ready after a break. Muhtashim may also go well.
2.25 Ascot (Valiant Stakes – Group 3) – ZANBAQ
Some of the big-hitters in this race may find the ground a tad too quick. Novemba has the class to win this but does need the rain, while Jumbly is another in a similar position.
Oscula is very consistent but now needs to take a leap forward, with the solid one in the line-up being Roger Varian’s Zanbaq.
The three-year-old was genuinely thought of as a Guineas filly not so long ago and ran a belter when second to the well handicapped Heredia in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot.
3.07 Newmarket (Handicap) – AUDIENCE
This is a six-furlong handicap which is tough to call at a glance. Wowzers can improve, while King Of Jungle, Romantic Time, Lethal Levi, Straits Of Moyle and I’m A Gambler are all capable.
Before an unsuccessful attempt at Group 3 glory over seven in the Jersey Stakes, the Gosden runner Audience was going in the right direction and is capable of reaching a mark in these conditions of at least 105. Coming in off 100, he looks well treated.
3.35 Ascot (King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes – Group 1) – EMILY UPJOHN
Hurricane Lane needs softer ground, Adayar has taken an age to come to hand this season and Derby winner Desert Crown has suffered a setback.
With their absences in mind, we should be talking about a ‘weak’ King George but it really isn’t. With the exception of Broome, at least arguably, each of the six horses here look like running into the 120’s and that makes this a competitive Group 1 event.
Pyledriver is solid but needs to take a big step forward, while Arc winner Torquator Tasso can go well but still probably needs softer going to be absolutely at his brilliant best.
Mishriff is a well-travelled, top-level five-year-old. His run in the Eclipse last time showed he is still near his best and let’s not forget that it took an exceptional three-year-old to beat him last year in the shape of Adayar.
Westover was unlucky in the Derby, but despite what he did last time in Ireland he wouldn’t have won at Epsom. He is high class, genuine Group 1 quality, and is absolutely bound to go well once again.
When we do have a top-notch three-year-old in this race they tend to win, but the best of them at the weights in my mind is the filly Emily Upjohn, rather than Westover.
After slipping at the start and losing loads of ground but still being beaten only on the line in the Oaks, Emily Upjohn has been given the same rating as her conqueror Tuesday.
We know that’s a tad false. How much better she was in reality is open to debate and opinion, but based on her run at Epsom, Nashwa’s subsequent performance in the French Oaks, natural improvement and her 3lb weight allowance, she’ll be punching well above her perceived weight in this race.
She’s tough, has the class, loves the trip and the ground and there is little to dislike about her chances.
4.32 Newcastle (Handicap) – PRIDE OF PRIORY
This is a decent quality race, at least given the fact that Haveyoumissedme, Sea King and Thundering all look likely to run to or past their current handicap marks.
Pride Of Priory however is capable of much better than this and if he’s offered at a decent price can be backed to score.
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