It’s Prix Jacques le Marois weekend over in France as the Group 1 action continues.
Even with Maljoom now out, the race looks certain to be one of the best one-mile contests this year. While State Of Rest is prominent down in trip, I can’t pick between Coroebus and Inspiral so that race is a watching brief.
We do however have a ton of good racing on British shores, as well as the return of Luxembourg in Ireland, with our first port of call being Nottingham on Friday afternoon.
Friday 12th August 2022
3.55 Nottingham (Fillies’ Handicap) – QABILAH
This is just a run of the mill-looking four-runner fillies’ handicap over a mile and a quarter at Nottingham, but there is definitely some value to be squeezed out of it.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Terra Mitica is an obvious type, the Gosdens’ Shaara undoubtedly has more to give and William Haggas’ Persist will of course have her supporters.
The outsider of the four however is Qabilah and she is the one to be with.
There are several pieces of form, and related form, which suggest that Roger Varian’s Kitten’s Joy filly looks capable now of reaching a mark of 90 or more. If that’s correct, she could easily be the best handicapped filly in the line-up.
Qabilah is also a course and distance winner, just for good measure, and she looks terrific value at 5/1+ to land this race.
7.58 Newmarket (Handicap) – BASHOSH
Should Roger Varian and Sheikh Ahmed be successful for us with Qabilah, then they’ll be looking for a nice double to be completed with Bashosh on Friday.
The son of Dubai made an excellent debut last year, won again afterwards and continued to run very consistently all year.
He’s been gelded now and can resume the improvement he was showing at three, with his current handicap mark of 89 undervaluing him by at least 10lbs in my book, so he must be backed at anything like a decent price in the market.
In behind Chasing Aphrodite (Harry Eustace), Dutch Decoy (Charlie & Mark Johnston) and Bell Rock (Andrew Balding) all have similar place chances.
Saturday 13th August 2022
2.50 Ripon (Great St Wilfrid Handicap) – EMPEROR SPIRIT
There has been a disappointing turnout for this historic six-furlong sprint handicap this year, though given the heat and prize money issues it isn’t totally surprising.
This time around Blackrod will no doubt have his say for the Bethell yard, while Al Simmo and Snash will be well supported, but the vote ultimately goes to Archie Watson’s Emperor Spirit.
As a four-year-old with his best sprinting days to come he has just the right profile for this, but his form is the key element.
He took the eye when winning at Chelmsford in June after a long break before only just being beaten over this course and distance. He took a step forward when running second at Ascot, and although he didn’t show up well last time it seems he’s been primed for this and he will love the conditions. PJ McDonald takes the ride.
3.00 Newbury (Handicap) – SILENT FILM
In this seven-furlong handicap we give one more chance to Charlie Appleby’s four-year-old Silent Film, ridden by top man William Buick.
On his old form he’d be badly handicapped off 103, and on his most recent he’d have absolutely no chance at all!
There is more to consider however. He was given a mark of 105 for winning a tough handicap in Bahrain earlier in the year.
There he beat King’s Night by a half-length, now rated 92 (gave away 21lbs), Natural Path by a length who is now rated 86 (gave away 16lbs) and Magical Wish by some 3½ lengths who was given a mark of 100 (receiving 1lb).
At a basic 2lbs per length, he should be rated anywhere between 105-108 you’d say. He raced on the wrong side last time at Newmarket and can be forgiven, he’s only a four-year-old who can and will get better, and so coming in here in conditions he likes off 103 makes him a reasonable shout.
He gets the nod with likely favourite Gisburn seemingly not very far ahead of the handicapper, while Fivethousandtoone might be the other well treated horse in the race having chased home Hungerford contender Run To Freedom last time out.
3.35 Newbury (Hungerford Stakes – Group 2) – DUBAI POET
Those at the top of the market for this usually classy Group 2 seven-furlong race look vulnerable to me this time around.
So often the Hungerford is like a Group 1 without the title, however this time it looks much more winnable for those still climbing the ladder.
Tiber Flow’s form is decent and somewhat progressive however he doesn’t scream 5/2 favourite to me. In behind in the market is Pogo who is solid, but not getting much better aged 6 while Chindit is another who fits into the ‘consistent, but not improving’ box.
The value in the race therefore is Roger Varian’s Dubai Poet. He ran very well behind Checkandchallenge at Newcastle in April, didn’t appreciate the step up to 1m2f at Chester and was a fine third in the Jersey Stakes last time.
Before all of that he was an easy winner here at Newbury before running just four lengths behind Coroebus in the Autumn Stakes.
Natural improvement takes him to the sort of level that makes him competitive here, so when you consider that he was on the wrong side in the Jersey and had to tack right across we can probably upgrade his form.
Dubai Poet is still learning to go faster after a stark drop in trip which could yet prove to be his making.
11.25 Churchill Downs (Arlington Million – Grade 1) – SANTIN
There are a number of top-class races taking place over the in the States this weekend, though it’s this one in Kentucky that provides us with the best betting opportunity.
This is what is known as a ‘transplanted’ race, having of course been run at Arlington Park for a long, long time.
Arlington closed after nearly 94 years of action last year, and the Churchill Downs turf track has been getting some stick after it was re-laid, however things appear to have settled down and the home of the Derby can host this historic race.
In it Smooth Like Strait will be popular, as will the former British-trained Set Piece, but it’s Godolphin’s Santin who looks to be the best of this bunch and he is backed.
Bookies haven’t been forthcoming with the odds early on, but a morning line of 3/1 looks very fair.
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