You might want to call this the start of the jumps season proper, Chepstow hosting some excellent National Hunt events over the weekend.
We are far from done with the Flat however, with Newmarket’s Future Champions Weekend taking precedence here.
We may be about to see a substandard Fillies’ Mile, at least in behind Commissioning who could be the real deal, while Flying Honours should be too good in the Zetland but is not a backable price.
Friday 7th October 2022
1.50 Newmarket (Cornwallis Stakes – Group 3) – CRISPY CAT
Clearpoint can be forgiven his latest run, while there could be a major return to form for the filly Maylandsea at a nice price.
Keith Dalgleish’s Prince Of Pillo is a strong favourite after his demolition job at Ayr, but going up the Rowley Mile hill it would be no surprise to see unlucky Norfolk Stakes third Crispy Cat come out on top.
The son of Ardad should perhaps have won that day and he’s had very valid excuses in three runs since. His experience could play a big part in this race and the excellent Ryan Moore takes the ride.
4.10 Newmarket (Old Rowley Cup – Heritage Handicap) – FIRST RULER
Based on current rate of progression Simply Sondheim, who is on an incredible seven-timer, can run well but a lot depends on how he handles faster ground.
Educator will have been put right by his second last week for the King and, based on what he achieved in the spring ahead of the likes of London Gold Cup winner Israr, he should be right in the mix now. Stablemate La Yakel can go well again, but on this ground may have it to do against old rival First Ruler.
First Ruler is the clear standout of Charlie Appleby’s four with Wild Crusade, Al Nafir and Cosmic Desert all admittedly solid, and on faster ground can continue his progress.
5.50 Newmarket (Pride Stakes – Group 3) – CREATIVE FLAIR
Godolphin’s Creative Flair runs her last race in the one and a quarter-mile Pride Stakes. Not only will her team have prepared her a send-off to remember, but this has been her long-term target all year anyway.
Trainer Charlie Appleby said she was basically “punch drunk” having had to chase a suicidal early pace on firm ground in America back in July. She’s much better than that.
On balance, there may not be that much between Ville De Grace and three-year-olds Peripatetic and Shaara who can all challenge for places.
10.16 Keeneland (Alcibiades Stakes – Grade 1) – RAGING SEA
The excellent Chad Brown scratched his once-raced filly Raging Sea from her previous Grade 1 appointment and rerouted her here.
A sloppy, quick track was not thought to be ideal but going over an extended mile at Keeneland looks ideal for the ‘Win and You’re In’ race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on November 4. This is only her second run, but she’s well drawn, has lots of talent and may stay on best of all.
Saturday 8th October 2022
2.25 Newmarket (Autumn Stakes – Group 3) – SILVER KNOTT
A most fascinating juvenile race and a high class one for sure. Exoplanet could be a big improver as a debut winner for Roger Varian while Holloway Boy has experience at a good level.
The Gosdens’ Epictetus was impressive when winning his sole race to date, though I don’t know why he has been off since then. He is the obvious danger, but he may not be good enough to beat the talented improving Silver Knott.
The easy Solario winner got stuck in the mud when losing out at Doncaster last time, but has otherwise been exemplary and can add this race to his CV before perhaps heading to the Breeders’ Cup.
3.00 Newmarket (Dewhurst Stakes – Group 1) – NAVAL POWER
Ante-post favourite Sakheer had to pull out after scoping dirty on Friday morning but while I love the horse, for what it’s worth I don’t think he’d have won it over seven furlongs.
Juddmonte have a strong hand here with Chaldean and especially Nostrum who now assumes favouritism.
Incredibly, Sir Michael Stoute hasn’t won the Dewhurst since 1986 but Nostrum gives him a terrific chance now after a most taking debut win, as well as his classy yet hard-fought Tattersalls Stakes win over this track and trip.
In Naval Power however, Godolphin and Charlie Appleby may have yet another Dewhurst star. Their 2019 and 2021 winners Pinatubo and Native Trail were obvious two-year-old types, whereas this horse according to the trainer has always looked like a three-year-old.
Being unbeaten so far in four has felt like a bonus to his team and he has never been asked for too much. Apparently, he is ready to put it all together now and a usually circumspect and modest Appleby reckons that nothing will get him off the bridle easily.
He can emulate his sire Teofilo at this stage, but will hopefully go on to have a fine Classic career too. As Appleby says; he will not be wanting for stamina when they hit the rising ground.
4.25 York (Handicap) – WHITEHAVEN
We went for Hughie Morrison’s Whitehaven last week, though he was taken out before racing began. He’s back this week over two miles at a very fair track in York, one that should see the four-year-old return to his best which is something he’s been doing gradually since the summer.
Atacama Desert is an obvious danger, improving all the time, while the likes of Duke Of Verona, Praiano, Carrigillihy and It’s Good To Laugh will all have backers.
5.20 Newmarket (Darley Stakes – Group 3) – ROYAL FLEET
Royal Fleet won ever so easily last time and is still a work in progress. His form to date entitles him to go close anyway, but unlike a number of others in this race we expect him to now run a new career best.
His team already have an eye on a big-money race in Bahrain for him, one for which this event gives him automatic entry so he will be prepped to perfection to get the job done.
Alflaila is classy but may lack the turn of foot Royal Fleet has, while Cadillac, Ottoman Fleet and Finest Sound can all show up well.
10.14 Keeneland (Breeders’ Futurity – Grade 1) – LOGGINS
This top-notch two-year-old race has been very good in recent times, producing such horses as Essential Quality. The added dimension this year is that, while being a ‘Win and You’re In’ for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, it is also run over the very same course and distance.
This year’s renewal is a belter with 16 lining up. Forte is at the top of the market while Lost Ark, Carmel Road and Newgate are all to be watched, but the standout for me is the once-raced Loggins.
Brax Cox’s colt won on debut by a yawning 8½ lengths at Churchill Downs over six and a half furlongs. He is by Ghostzapper, a proper Grade I stallion whose progeny always do better as they get older, he’s well drawn and he looks the potential class in the race.
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