For our part this weekend we have a very even split. Though the Flat action takes centre stage on Friday afternoon, Saturday is all about the jumping action.
It’s a big day for Warwick on Saturday although we’re not involved there, while Newbury’s Betfair Hurdle card is the highlight of the weekend for most.
The Dubai Carnival gathers pace on Friday, while just down the road from Meydan Jebel Ali hosts its valuable Group 3 Mile.
We begin in Godolphin’s back yard as Charlie Appleby looks to keep his amazing run going.
Friday 10th February 2023
2.00 Meydan (Handicap) – FALLING SHADOW
The form is very much settling down on the turf at the Dubai Carnival, as evidenced by last week’s results.
There is better yet to come, but this 1m2f handicap is a decent event in its own right in which Charlie Appleby and Will Buick must have had a difficult choice to make.
Their Falling Shadow and Blue Trail both disliked the unexpected soft ground last time out, and while Blue Trail has strong form Falling Shadow is a real improver and I reckon Buick has made the right choice in going for him.
Brilliant Light and New Comedy are best of the rest.
4.20 Meydan (Blue Point Sprint – Group 2) – LAZULI
Just a note on the 3.10 before we get into this race; odds-on favourite Dasim was beaten by Princeville on what was the Appleby horse’s second ever run. It may be that the market leader has simply improved faster, but it’s worth bearing in mind at the prices as Princeville’s trainer is happy to give this a crack.
This race is a fine Group 2 five-furlong sprint. Showing true quality in the past were Khuzaam, Equilateral, Khaadem and Acklam Express. There is work do be done by Ponntos and Raasel, while Logo Hunter and especially Ladies Church are very capable.
The consistent speed of Man Of Promise will always give him a chance also, but the most solid one for sure is recent winner Lazuli who appears to still be improving at six and may yet make his mark in Group 1’s over the minimum distance.
5.30 Meydan (Business Bay Challenge – Listed Race) – MODERN NEWS
Modern News really needed the run last time after being off since August, while he was asked to make the running in a race featuring Master Of The Seas into the bargain. He will be fitter today and if he is 100%, he can prove he’s the best horse in this race.
Ex-Aussie runner I Am Superman should come on a bit, Land Of Legends is solid enough, Shining Blue needs to improve from handicaps and Spanish runner Rodaballo also needs to take a step forward.
Those rivals are also drawn 7, 8, 9 and 10 respectively, while Modern News has the chance to nip round the inside from gate 1 which is ideal for him and it’s easy to envisage him winning this early in the straight.
Saturday 11th February 2023
1.50 Newbury (Handicap Hurdle) – JAY BEE WHY
Given the spectre of fast ground, a few races at Newbury may or may not throw up some funny results. In any case, and with the going taken into account in this three-mile hurdle race, Alan King’s Jay Bee Why is too big a price and so a chance can be taken on him to score at modest stakes.
He was rattling along nicely last spring and despite the fact that his two wins came on soft ground, he has shown consistently better speed ratings on faster ground that most in this field.
Annual Invictus, West To The Bridge and Barbados Buck’s may all challenge for places.
2.25 Newbury (Denman Chase – Grade 2) – HITMAN
At the time of writing Hitman is 7/4 almost right across the board. Should that price hold then it is a very fair one for a horse that, at these weights and in the conditions, should really be significantly better than main rivals Eldorado Allen and Fanion D’Estruval.
An improving chaser, Hitman followed Fakir D’Oudairies home at Aintree in Grade 1 company last spring, while at the same venue at the start of this season he ran a stormer under top weight in the Old Roan when narrowly missing out. The form of that race has been well boosted since and Hitman it could be argued has even improved.
Hitman has won easily since then and was pulled up on soft ground last time out, this being much more up his street. He looks a genuine Grade One contender at around three miles.
2.45 Uttoxeter (Handicap Chase) – GUETAPAN COLLONGES
In this competitive-looking three-mile chase Mister Coffey is a consistent type, Jimmy The Digger still has plenty to offer and Burrows Diamond has the potential to offer more.
Bangers And Cash (Ben Pauling) is on an upward trajectory, he is the joint-youngest of the main contenders at seven and so as a horse who’s winning his level of improvement could get him home.
The same things can be said however for Charlie Longsdon’s Guetapan Collonges. The ground was not right for him last time but based on past performances, his rate of improvement and what was expected last time when he was sent off favourite, he looks the best in here according to handicap ratings. Brian Hughes rides.
3.35 Newbury (Betfair Hurdle – Premier Handicap) – RUBAUD
There has been money for Hacker Des Places, Monviel, Icare Allen and especially Filey Bay this week and it’s easy to see why.
It is a race which has been won by fast-improving five-year-olds in the past, in fact many will be able to remember Essex, Heathcote, Zarkandar, Agrapart, Pic D’Orhy and others.
Given that stat, I’m willing to take at face value the fact that on the numbers I got Paul Nicholls’ Rubaud fairly well clear of the rest and while he’s not a massive price, he is pretty decent value given the money that’s come in for some of the others. Harry Cobden rides.
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