It’s Grand National weekend. We are covering one race on day two, Friday, and a couple on the big day including of course the Grand National itself for which we have two selections.
On the Flat, it’s quiet domestically as we head towards the Craven meeting next week before the Greenham get together at the weekend.
It is a big weekend internationally however, as Sydney’s autumn carnival continues and Charlie Appleby sends a pair to contest Grade 1 races in the States.
Modern Games runs for Appleby in the Grade One Maker’s Mark Mile on Friday night, while he looks to double up with a filly I reckon should win at the same track on Saturday.
We begin over the jumps on Ladies Day at Aintree:
Friday 14th April 2023
3.30 Aintree (Marsh Chase – Grade 1) – PIC D’ORHY
Joseph O’Brien’s Fakir D’Oudairies has won this race twice in a row and by my reckoning at least, still rates as a very solid chance and the one for any improvers to beat.
Pic D’Orhy is the obvious potential improver and he has a big chance to get past the dual winner now for trainer Paul Nicholls. Second to Shishkin in February with conditions not ideal, Pic D’Orhy was well ahead of Fakir D’Oudairies that day and should be all the better now.
Paul Nicholls’ other runner Hitman has a strong place chance as well.
Saturday 15th April 2023
3.00 Aintree (Mersey Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1) – HERMES ALLEN
Before his defeat in a stamina-sapping Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, Hermes Allen was improving in lumps. He remains a horse going the right way overall and conditions here will be a little more to his liking.
Willie Mullins can never be discounted when sending a horse to a Grade One and his Dark Raven is next on the list, ahead of Letsbeclearaboutit and You Wear It Well.
3.35 Aintree (Liverpool Hurdle – Grade 1) – HOME BY THE LEE
There is lots over overlapping form in this stayers’ race. Experienced types Sire Du Berlais, Flooring Porter, Dashel Drasher and Champ as well all know have very strong form and can all beat each other given ideal conditions.
Mare Marie’s Rock is solid at the weights too, but the one to improve past them all may be Home By The Lee who was impressive in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. He couldn’t win the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, but that doesn’t suit everyone and he ran well in fifth.
5.15 Aintree (GRAND NATIONAL – Premier Handicap Chase) – GAILLARD DU MESNIL & MINELLA TRUMP
It’s usually daft to pick only one horse in the Grand National as you will need a little bit of luck in the race. The usual 40-runner line-up means things are tricky, but of course we want to be involved.
The first, solid-looking selection is Willie Mullins’ Gaillard Du Mesnil. His weight and rating aren’t restrictive for a modern Grand National horse and he is a proven stayer in great form.
His Grade 2 win at Cheltenham was done in fine style and I don’t think he had a hard race there which is crucial. I also don’t think that was even his best performance so there’s certainly more to come and he may be well handicapped.
The bigger-priced pick is Donald McCain’s Minella Trump. The nine-year-old really picked up last April and May at Perth when he was allowed to stretch out over three miles for the first time.
No doubt meticulously prepared at home since then, he has had a spin over hurdles which is a well-trodden route for good National horses and he could be seriously overpriced.
6.00 Wolverhampton (Fillies’ Novice Stakes) – TRANQUIL ROSE
We’re playing in this race on the basis of our horse, Tranquil Rose, potentially being a reasonable price but we don’t know for certain until the market opens up.
Gold As Glass (at the weights), Maid In London, Amazing and Sail On Silverbird are all very similar but can improve at different rates.
Mischievous Madame is an interesting newcomer for a strong yard, but Tranquil Rose for he has already shown more than the others and was very green on debut, suggesting plenty of improvement to come on race two.
10.16 Keeneland (Lexington Stakes – Grade 3) – FIRST MISSION
A mile and half a furlong is the distance for these three-year-olds, all of which are Kentucky-bred.
With natural progression, this could be another good result for the Godolphin team, this time with one trained by Brad Cox.
First Mission, a Street Sense colt, was good on debut when runner-up but much, much better when winning easily last time.
The likely favourite is Disarm, who finished second to Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby who for what it’s worth is who I like for the Kentucky Derby, but perhaps a closer challenger to First Mission this time is Empirestrikesfast who won on debut, but did have to dig in.
10.48 Keeneland (Jenny Wiley Stakes – Grade 1) – WITH THE MOONLIGHT
Charlie Appleby’s second runner of the weekend is the filly With The Moonlight and this race has been the plan for her for some time.
The likely favourite is the consistently good In Italian who chase Tuesday home at the Breeders’ Cup. She is solid, but With The Moonlight reached a similar level in Dubai last time, doing it ever so easily, and she has good experience of the States having run very well in New York three times last summer.
Queen Goddess is next best, followed by Speak Of The Devil and Pizza Bianca.
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