This weekend’s action is undoubtedly highlighted by three key races; the 1000 Guineas, 2000 Guineas and the Kentucky Derby. There is so much more going on too but we begin at HQ for Friday’s racing:
Friday 5th May 2023
1.15 Newmarket (Newmarket Stakes – Listed Race) – CASTLE WAY
This is usually an important race with the future in mind and Charlie Appleby may win it again with Castle Way. His Victory Dance also has a chance if staying, while Salt Bay has Group 1 form. Circle Of Fire can improve and will also be an interesting watch.
2.25 Newmarket (King Charles II Stakes – Listed Race) – MAJESTIC PRIDE
Iconic Moment may challenge even giving weight, while Arabian Storm was a let-down last time but will be better at seven furlongs.
The one that catches the eye is Majestic Pride. Although a winner at the Craven meeting, more was expected but the soft ground held him back. His form is good enough while conditions should bring about plenty of improvement.
9.04 Churchill Downs (La Troienne Stakes – Grade 1) – SECRET OATH
This is a $750,000 race features some top-class fillies and mares, not least the one who won the Kentucky Oaks for us last year, Secret Oath. She remains in top form, she loves it here, is well drawn and is more than capable of landing another Grade 1.
D Wayne Lukas’ runner has competition with the likes of Played Hard and Search Results appearing to be overpriced.
10.51 Churchill Downs (Kentucky Oaks – Grade 1) – WET PAINT
Brad Cox has a strong hand here. His Botanical racked up some impressive figures when winning a Listed race at Turfway Park on the Tepeta, but this is a very different task.
Stablemate Wet Paint, owned by Godolphin, looked really good when landing the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn after breaking slowly. Flavien Prat was in no hurry then, understanding what he had underneath him and the pair should be sharper today.
Southlawn can also go well, while Pretty Mischievous is drawn wider than ideal.
Saturday 6th May 2023
2.15 Newmarket (Ellen Chaloner Stakes – Listed Race) – HEREDIA
Now freshened up and down in trip, Heredia looks interesting for Richard Hannon. After winning her two races as a juvenile, she did exceptionally well to keep that going at York last spring. She went in yet again at Royal Ascot and reached a mark of 106 by then.
Though she’s won over a mile, this sprint trip can reignite her and we should see a filly capable of beating Gale Force Maya, Azure Blue and Queen Olly.
3.05 Goodwood (Handicap) – HONITON
Honiton showed a ton of potential last year. In April he was third to My Prospero (Group 1 rated 121), and Britannia Stakes winner Thesis. In May he was second to Secret State (Group 2 second) before running third to Eldar Eldarov (St Leger winner, rated 116).
He then won as easily as he liked and should be rated comfortably above 100 now, so gets in here very lightly. Another improver Maghlaak is best of the rest.
4.00 Newmarket (Palace House Stakes – Group 3) – TWILIGHT CALLS
Assuming everything is OK on seasonal debut, and he has won first time out before, Twilight Calls should prove to be the best of this bunch. Though he hasn’t been seen since a big run in the King’s Stand, he remains of major interest and has the assistance of Ryan Moore.
4.40 Newmarket (2000 Guineas – Group 1) – SILVER KNOTT & NOBLE STYLE
The first Classic of the season is upon us.
Strong favourite Auguste Rodin (Aidan O’Brien) is highly thought of and may attempt the Triple Crown. He won the Futurity at Doncaster, stays the mile well and will go for the Derby. He’s excellent, but he’s not in superstar territory yet so we have to take him on at the odds.
Stablemate Little Big Bear is one of three for whom stamina is a worry. He was extraordinary at the Curragh last season, while Sakheer (Roger Varian) was a very good winner of the Mill Reef. Noble Style (Charlie Appleby) was an excellent winner of the Gimcrack too and all three sprinters have more to come.
The best backed British-trained horse is Chaldean (Andrew Balding). The Dewhurst winner, he is solid but many think he should have been beaten by Royal Scotsman (Paul & Oliver Cole) who is in opposition again – form we’ll come back to.
Charlie Appleby’s Silver Knott is a proper type. Like stablemate Coroebus (2000 Guineas winner) he won the Autumn Stakes here and has no ground, trip, course or class worries.
After jumping on the plane last minute, Silver Knott was too far back at the Breeders’ Cup but did very well indeed to almost win. He beat Epictetus last season, the same horse was second to Auguste Rodin.
Noble Style is the headscratcher. He has drifted from 10/1 to 20/1 this week. He didn’t work too well in public last month, while James Doyle mentioned that on a podcast with the bookmakers reacting. He might also be a dead-set sprinter.
On the slip side; he didn’t work well before his outstanding debut last May. He also covered well over six furlongs when running round and drifting before slamming Marshman at York (top form). There are few doubts he would have stayed seven after that, meaning the trip wouldn’t have been a debate.
Given the massive drift, confidence can’t be high on Noble Style. At the odds, the advice is to split the stakes on Charlie Appleby’s two runners, the man who landed the 1-2 last year.
5.04 Churchill Downs (Derby City Distaff – Grade 1) – MATAREYA
Breeders’ Cup winner Goodnight Olive is the odds-on but while Chad Brown’s mare is very good, she’s not a certainty and remains vulnerable to improving four-year-olds.
Hot And Sultry is one, but a better option is the peaking Wicked Halo. She beat Matareya last time and if you fancy her, you have to like the horse she narrowly beat who was making her comeback. Brad Cox’s filly possesses the past form and the likely progression to see this field off and she’s a nice price to do it.
11.57 Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby – Grade 1) – KINGSBARNS
Another competitive Kentucky Derby features form lines from California, Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida and New York.
Comparing that isn’t easy, while we also have to take into consideration improvement shown by some runners, the draw and breeding.
Favourite Forte has rock-sold Grade 1 form, but he doesn’t appear to be improving and he’s stuck in gate 15. Tapit Trice is now a Grade 1 winner, while Practical Move took the Santa Anita Derby but only just.
Japanese runner Derma Sotogake, Confidence Game, Mage and Skinner are all interesting too.
The improvers could be Angel Of Empire and Kingsbarns. The former, trained by Brad Cox, won the Grade 2 Risen Star before comfortably landing the Arkansas Derby (G1) but the form may not be great.
Kingsbarns, trained like Forte and Tapit Trice by Todd Pletcher, made a strong debut as recently as January. He followed that up well and posted a good time figure when winning at Tampa Bay before looking like an easy winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2).
That was back in late March which is clever from Pletcher. He could have raced again, but it was decided that three runs in 12 weeks put enough mileage in his legs. Now, he’s been allowed to freshen up, strengthen and improve at home.
For good measure, Kingsbarns is a second foal which is a good stat in the race, and is also by Derby winner Nyquist’s sire Uncle Mo.
Sunday 7th May 2023
3.40 Newmarket (1000 Guineas – Group 1) – DREAM OF LOVE
Strictly speaking, this one is more of an ante-post tip as at the time of writing the final declarations aren’t complete. The main contenders should run however and we are set for a fine renewal.
Dermot Weld’s Tahiyra is very good, this we already know, but it may be that we know the Group 1 winner’s level. Meditate was behind her last time and can perhaps push her even closer, at least Aidan O’Brien seems to think so.
Fairy Cross is a very solid each-way play at around 40/1. Her form is good and she was very unsuited by how things worked out at Newmarket last time.
There are stamina doubts about Lezoo and Mawj while Remarquee has to improve, but the intriguing one is Dream Of Love.
A big improver, she goes on any ground and will stay this mile no problem. She was shuffled way out the back and seemingly had absolutely no chance in Dubai against Mawj last time, only to finish with a rather stunning late rattle to only just lose out.
On that run and based on her rate of progression, she is good enough to win this and is a tempting price too.
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