Saturday 22nd May 2021: Mystical to Dawn Upon Handicap Victory

Even with the Irish 2000 Guineas card in serious doubt as of Friday afternoon, we have an incredibly busy Saturday on our hands.

The recommendation, given the number of selections and the bad weather all round, is to keep stakes small and spread your bank around.

1.20 Haydock (Handicap) – MYSTICAL DAWN

John & Thady Gosden’s Side Shot may yet attract the majority of the money, however there is no guarantee he’ll act well on the very soft ground.

Charlie Appleby’s Mystical Dawn however, definitely does. Having only his fourth race and with lots of improvement to come, this is a horse who stepped up his game as a runner-up last time but when going back to look at his debut his chances become even more apparent.

At Newmarket last October, Mystical Dawn won nicely on his bow, staying on well over the mile. That was on genuine soft ground, he had Derby favourite Bolshoi Ballet back in third and as a son of Sea The Stars promises to move forward again now over this tough mile-and-a-half trip. Adam Kirby rides, Classic Lord is fancied for a place.

1.40 Goodwood (Handicap) – AMTIYAZ

Although set to be an outsider in the market, Amtiyaz has plenty to offer in the context of this 1m6f contest.

The Gosden horse, ridden by Martin Harley who has been going superbly, has been nothing if not consistent in nine career starts to date.

Eight of his runs have been on the all-weather, but the way he has seen out his races on the Tapeta at Newcastle and Wolverhampton tends to make one think he should handle the soft ground conditions here.

He finished his year with a two-mile win at Kempton, an easy one, and having had a decent pipe-opener this term it’s a surprise to see him at double-figure prices. Prince Alex has a strong chance too for Ralph Beckett but is far too short in the market.

2.05 York (Handicap) – AJYAALL

Gone are the days of worrying about horses making their seasonal reappearance, so there is more than just a suggestion that the talented thrice raced Ajyaall can resume his sharp upward trajectory for William Haggas.

The trip, ground and track should all be fine for him, he’s now been gelded to settle him down further, and based on the form of his win at Wolverhampton and even just natural progression he could have half a stone in hand on the likes of Escobar and Zip at the weights. Cieren Fallon rides.

2.25 Haydock (Handicap) – POSTILEO

This is a very competitive handicap, one that given the two-mile trip and how hard Haydock is to see out on heavy ground will be a very attritional one.

In a tight market there will be support for Vindolanda, Hiroshima, Dash Of Spice and others, however two old rivals may well be fighting this out with placing perhaps being reversed.

In the Chester Plate last time around, Roger Varian’s Postileo chased home Venetia Williams’s Green Book and while there were four lengths separating them at the line, the lighter-raced of the two can get revenge.

Chester is unique. Postileo could have got closer with luck, there is a 7lb weight turnaround, he was favourite last time, he has improvement to come and the two furlong drop in trip will also help.

2.40 York (Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes – Group 3) – BELIEVE IN LOVE

In terms of getting value, with any luck there will be money for Irish-trained horses Mighty Blue and Flor De La Luna which may well mean an increase in the odds for Roger Varian’s Believe In Love.

Making her first start for 210 days, the four-year-old filly is likely to have improved plenty since last seen, not that there was anything wrong with her form.

In winning her fourth race on the bounce, Believe In Love was mightily impressive last August at Newmarket and finished off the year with a cosy win in a Group 3 in France.

She wants this mile-and-three-quarter trip, the ground is fine and she looks well capable of defying her 3lb penalty.

2.50 Goodwood (Handicap) – ALDAARY

This is a race that could come down to the two Shadwell horses. John & Thady Gosden’s Tawleed won nicely last time and was rated highly on my private ratings.

That’s encouraging considering the horse who came out on top in the conditions, impressive last time out winner Aldaary (William Haggas), is the choice of rider Jim Crowley between the two and he can win this before going up into Group company the next time we see him.

3.40 Newmarket (Handicap) – ALMIGHWAR

I’d expect to see strong support during the afternoon for Lostwithiel for men of the moment George Boughey and Rossa Ryan, though it’s time for one that has shown lots of class to finally get his head in front this season.

Gosden/Shadwell runner Almighwar was beaten only by the highly progressive Al Zaraqaan first time up, then looked all over the winner at Newbury over the two-mile trip but was beaten a neck.

He was the ante-post favourite for the Chester Cup, which is important to remember, but coming down to this 1m6f trip may be best for him at this point. Charlie Appleby’s Global Storm is the overnight favourite and rates as the main danger.

3.50 York (Handicap) – PENDLETON

A tough five-furlong sprint, but one in which a small bet on Pendleton may well be rewarded. Kept in training having not run since a good 2019 season, he was brought back by classy sprint expert Michael Dods to put up a career best when returning in second at Ascot two weeks ago and this looks well within his compass.

4.10 Haydock (Temple Stakes – Group 2) – QUE AMORO

Speaking of Dods’s sprinters, his Que Amoro looks the best value punt in the Group 2 Temple Stakes.

It’s a tight enough race with Liberty Beach, Lady In France and Keep Busy all holding chances, but the five-year-old mare’s progressive form having won a Listed Race at Ayr last season before chasing Battaash home in the Nunthorpe rates as the best all things considered. Paul Mulrennan takes the ride.

Saturday 15th May 2021: Gosden Horse the Logical Choice

It’s a Group 1 day on Saturday. Newbury hosts the Lockinge Stakes, but while the fantastic Palace Pier should be far too strong in that race, he really isn’t a betting proposition at the prices.

With that in mind, we look for value elsewhere with these six all being worth a look at Newbury, Newmarket and Doncaster.

1.50 Newbury (Carnarvon Stakes – Listed Race) – CREATIVE FORCE

It’s very interesting to see Tactical running in this six-furlong race and the Queen’s horse is the overnight favourite.

Andrew Balding is in fantastic form and Tactical managed to win the European Free Handicap last time out, however based on that, his breeding and his win in the July Stakes last year you’d be forgiven for thinking this drop in trip is not ideal.

He also gives away 3lbs to Charlie Appleby’s Creative Force and that may prove to be too much. James Doyle’s mount has done nothing but improve, while we need to also seriously upgrade his win last time against just three rivals.

All three of his wins so far have come at Newmarket, but he seems like a horse going places and it shouldn’t bother him coming to Newbury. He’s favoured ahead of Tactical and Happy Romance.

2.25 Newbury (Aston Park Stakes – Group 3) – LOGICIAN

This is a fantastic race, so keep an eye on this one as far as form going forward is concerned. Ranch Hand is on a hat-trick, Thunderous was last year’s Dante winner and the top two in the market are essentially Group 1 horses.

All the talk has been of Al Aasy of the William Haggas yard. The team is doing well and the four-year-old was imperious over this course and distance back in April.

It’s thought that this is a stepping stone to Epsom and the Coronation Cup by a team that has a lot of confidence in the Sea The Stars colt, however they may not have quite banked on one particular horse being in opposition.

Logician, the very classy grey who won the 2019 St Leger in style, makes his seasonal reappearance here. He wasn’t seen to best effect last term although he did win very easily first time up and is good when fresh.

Knowing this type of horse from the Gosden yard, even at five we are unlikely to have seen the best of him and he may be heading for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe later in the year.

Still a full horse, had the team at Juddmonte not thought he could land a major blow at the top level they would very definitely have retired this son of Frankel by now. He’s proven at the trip, he’s a Group 1 winner, he gets 3lbs from Al Aasy and is second-favourite behind his rival. Big chance.

2.40 Newmarket (King Charles II Stakes – Listed Race) – CLOUDBRIDGE

On a day like this, a Listed race at Newmarket may slightly go under the radar but it may well be that there is great value in this seven-furlong event.

Cloudbridge, owned by Godolphin and trained by Charlie Appleby, put up a debut performance last August when winning that even by the standards of this team was exceptional. I haven’t forgotten that, and I’m sure they haven’t either.

He went off even-money favourite for the Group 3 Acomb at York but ran way too free, then finished his year off as early as September with a close second in another Group 3 at Kempton over six furlongs.

This is more his trip, and we have no idea how much he may have improved since we last saw him. He has tons of class and it’s hard to know why at the time of writing he is available at 5/1.

William Buick has chosen to come “home” and ride this horse rather than ride Creative Force, Tamborrada and A’Shaari at Newbury, which is a nod in itself. Bellosa and Fundamental are best of the rest.

3.00 Newbury (London Gold Cup Handicap) – TAMBORRADA

As for Tamborrada, he may even go and win the London Gold Cup. Despite being unbeaten, this gelded son of Dubawi doesn’t appear to that well handicapped when you consider his 8lb rise for a very narrow win at Doncaster.

However, he looks to be a real improver while a closer look at that Doncaster form reveals it was a better race than we all thought.

The second, a Mark Johnston horse, has improved plenty to win since then while the horse he beat has also stepped forward since then.

Bay Bridge was impressive at Newcastle last time for Sir Michael Stoute and is a major danger, as is John Gosden’s Highland Rocker.

4.10 Newbury (Fillies’ Trial Stakes – Listed Race) – A’SHAARI

In reading the racing press it would seem everybody wants to be on the likely short-priced favourite Sea Empress in this race, and that’s understandable.

William Haggas’ young Sea The Stars filly looked very good when winning her debut at Newcastle ahead of Teona no less, the filly who won by 9 lengths at the same track afterwards and went off only 15/8 for the Musidora the other day.

The form is rock solid, but we only have the one example and such debut winners don’t always go on to be superstars.

At the odds, the value call is A’Shaari. Herself just 6/4 for the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes recently, she didn’t handle things that day and will also strip much fitter now for the run. Her own debut was pretty spectacular at HQ last August and she’ll appreciate the extra juice in the ground here. The Oaks may yet be on the cards.

7.35 Doncaster (Handicap) – THIRD KINGDOM

Having found the ground too quick when earning a mark of 86 at Sandown on his second run, John & Thady Gosden’s Third Kingdom finished off his juvenile season with a very facile win at Newcastle in September.

He was bumped up to a mark of 88, but that underestimates him for certain and he’s in a position to use this race as a springboard to better things. Beau Jardine is the main danger.

Saturday 8th May 2021: Derby Picture to Change Again

With the Guineas already a distant memory, we are hurtling towards Oaks and Derby weekend and the picture is changing all the time.

Godolphin’s Yibir, Law Of The Sea and Wirko didn’t step up at Chester from their impressive previous runs, though Charlie Appleby and the boys in blue have two outstanding candidates in the trials at Lingfield on Saturday.

On Sunday at Leopardstown one of the Derby favourites, Bolshoi Ballet, clashes with Vertem Futurity winner Mac Swiney in an intriguing Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, but betting-wise it’s all about Saturday for us, beginning at Lingfield Park.

2.15 Lingfield (Oaks Trial Fillies’ Stakes – Listed Race) – NASH NASHA

Anapurna won this race a couple of years ago before landing the big one at Epsom, but otherwise it has tended not to take a lot of winning in all truth.

Despite the apparent strength in the market of likely favourite Technique, she is not guaranteed to stamp her authority on this race for Martyn Meade and Sean Levey.

At all sorts of prices there is a bunch of fillies who look similar in terms of ability; Divinely, Loving Dream and Ocean Road among them, which leaves us looking for value and potential and the only horse on the card to have both is Godolphin’s Nash Nasha.

Charlie Appleby’s filly is a Dubawi and her stamina isn’t guaranteed, however her style of racing suggests she’ll be happy here and she is improving very quickly indeed.

Having been off the track since last August, she made just her third career start when not fully wound up on the Classic Trial card at Newbury in a fillies’ novice race last month, comfortably seeing off a potentially decent one of William Haggas’ along with Frankel’s full sister Chiasma.

She will be very much better for that run, doesn’t have much to make up on Technique anyway, and at twice the price represents the aforementioned value we’re looking for.

2.50 Lingfield (Derby Trial Stakes – Listed Race) – ADAYAR

An interesting Derby Trial, in fact this race is starting to throw up proper contenders again. After Anthony Van Dyck did the Lingfield Trial-Derby double two years ago, impressive winner English King took the race last time before going off a strong favourite for the Blue Riband at Epsom.

Now we have Adayar for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. In a strong Classic Trial at Newbury, Adayar carried the team’s second colours but was the horse everybody took out of the race.

Having been slowly away and also losing a shoe, the Frankel colt stayed on powerfully to only just fail, beating Yibir home who was a strong favourite for the Dee Stakes, and being unlucky not to collar Alenquer who now heads to the Dante at York.

Apart from the trip not being a worry, he gave the impression that he would improve a ton from that performance. William Buick’s mount can now get right up to around the 115 level and, even with Aidan O’Brien pair Carlisle Bay and Kyprios in the field, that’s a mark the field may not be able to match. A real Derby hope.

2.55 Nottingham (Kilvington Stakes – Listed Race) – LIGHT REFRAIN

We should keep stakes small here in a competitive affair, but at the odds it is worth taking a chance on Light Refrain.

It wouldn’t always be wise backing three-year-olds against the older horses this early in the season, however in the testing conditions the lighter physical weight they are carrying may well count for plenty.

While the stalls are placed in the centre, the field could just end up near the stands rail and so those drawn high won’t be disadvantaged, including the Queen’s horse. Runners can rather get away at Nottingham and Light Refrain has been known to run on the front end, so her style is bang on for this contest.

Although she’s a Frankel, William Haggas’ young filly did very well over six furlongs at Newcastle (Tapeta) and at York (soft ground) last season making these conditions appear ideal.

She may well steal a march and land this one under Shane Kelly with Mountain Brave, Last Empire, Ventura Diamond and Chocoya all fighting for places.

3.25 Lingfield (Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes – Group 3) – AXANA

This is a decent race and, while it’s close on the numbers, we could once again have the luxury of keeping stakes small and going for some real value.

Underrated and overpriced in the line-up is the German raider Axana. Often horses from certain territories are not considered good enough, a view that should have been left behind in 1990, and having not got out of third gear on her seasonal return Andreas Wohler’s five-year-old mare can step up and prove to be the best of these.

She’s got to the required level before and can certainly do so again under Jason Watson at a nice price, the chief opposition potentially coming from Double or Bubble and Bounce The Blues.

3.45 Haydock (Spring Trophy Stakes – Listed Race) – RAAEQ

It would be so easy to ignore Haydock on Saturday for betting purposes, despite their impressive mixed card, on account of the ground but the Listed Spring Trophy has attracted a bunch of horses who should be happy in the soft conditions.

Chief among them is Raaeq. Brian Meehan’s colt should probably be clear favourite for this but, at the time of writing at least, is available with a bit of value.

Having already been improving nicely as a three-year-old, Raaeq slammed his handicap field over seven furlongs on soft ground at Ascot last autumn, earning himself a mark of 107 that he now looks more than capable of surpassing.

Having run a fair reappearance race on good ground over a mile he can be expected to come on now, so in favoured conditions he is likely to put up a career best that would be too hot for this field to handle.

Lord Of The Lodge, Current Options, Qaysar and Tomfre were the other ones considered.

Saturday 1st & Sunday 2nd May 2021: Mutasaabeq the One in Open 2000 Guineas

The flat season truly kicks off this weekend with a veritable classic and Triple Crown bonanza. It’s Guineas and Kentucky Derby weekend, and here are the best bets.

Saturday 1st May 2021 

2.05 Goodwood (Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes – Listed Race) – MAAMORA

Lilac Road may well be favourite here, but she’s only a three-year-old and an all-weather winner who could be vulnerable. Maamora, off the track for a while, can still improve and goes well fresh so appears a better option than the Haggas horse and Agincourt.

2.25 Newmarket (Palace House Stakes – Group 3) – LAZULI

Sometimes these sprinters are a work in progress, so while at 4 and 5 respectively they’ve always shown serious talent, it may have taken until this season for us all to see what Lazuli and Garrus are truly about.

The former is backed this time to give away 3lbs to his older rival who himself will win his share of big price money this year.

3.40 Newmarket (2000 Guineas – Group 1) – MUTASAABEQ

Richard Hannon’s Greenham winner Chindit can improve plenty, but may want a different track, Naval Crown can be dragged along by good horses so can improve again at a big price while Van Gogh is classy but needs a real test and is a shorter price for the Derby than this for a good reason.

The key piece of form is last season’s National Stakes. There, Master Of The Seas was too free, pulled badly for his head and then raced wide with no cover. Although finishing fourth, he was only swamped very late on by Thunder Moon and Wembley who have been vying for favouritism here.

It’s felt that in these conditions Master Of The Seas can beat his old rivals now. He showed some fine pace to win the Superlative, did well in the circumstances in Ireland, then after a pipe-opener in Dubai did even better to win the Craven last time.

Despite being blocked on numerous occasions, he got himself out of trouble to win that prep in nice style over the course and distance, William Buick in the end choosing him over previous favourite One Ruler.

One Ruler has gone a tried and tested route having run well to be runner-up in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity on unsuitable soft ground, while before than he won the Autumn Stakes. He has the form in the bag, but it may well be prevalent that Buick has gone for the other horse as he rarely gets it wrong.

Thunder Moon won the National Stakes and was not suited by the ground in the Dewhurst. He is the winner of the race with the key form, but given how that race shaped up it would be no surprise to see both Master Of The Seas and Wembley turn that form around.

Wembley is the choice of Ryan Moore from the Coolmore team and he’s very classy indeed. His form puts him in the mix, but one win from 6 doesn’t scream “Guineas winner”. He was beaten by Mac Swiney last season who has close form with One Ruler, and in turn with Master Of The Seas which is yet another example of how close and muddled the form lines are.

We could be left looking for something else, and the new kid on the block Mutasaabeq looks to be the one. Charlie Hills’ Shadwell colt made a great debut last year despite the bad ground, then made all against three rivals in a conditions race at the Craven meeting to win in very fine style.

He didn’t beat much and had the rail, but he was forced to dictate, ran a faster seven furlongs than anything else at the meeting despite carrying more weight and put up easily the best speed figures of any horse at the meeting.

What many may have missed is that after he passed the line, he saw things out right up the hill so that – and his being out of 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati – tells us plenty about the likelihood of him seeing out the mile.

4.50 Newmarket (Newmarket Stakes – Listed Race) – MOHAAFETH

This four-runner Listed race may yet prove to be a valid Derby trial. One horse who is engaged at Epsom is Mohaafeth, a course and distance handicap winner at the Craven meeting who is a big improver and looks well capable now of getting to, and surpassing, the level of Godolphin’s likely favourite Secret Protector.

11.57 Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby – Grade 1) – ESSENTIAL QUALITY

On the face of it, there’s not as much depth to this Kentucky Derby as there has been in recent times. We should know about it too, as so often we know where each horse stands by now on the basis that they’ve had to put up strong performances, often in Grade 1 races, to qualify for the event.

With that in mind, our old pal Essential Quality looks to be comfortably ahead of this field. A Grade 1 winner at Keeneland last autumn, he returned to the track and trip for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November where he beat Hot Rod Charlie and become the 2020 champion two-year-old.

Winning his Grade 3 and Grade 2 prep races this term, the Godolphin grey remains unbeaten and, unlike many Derby candidates, hasn’t been asked for his very best effort yet so his peak has not been reached.

He was workmanlike last time in the Blue Grass, but much like in the Juvenile he got better the further they went which is no surprise for a son of Tapit.

Over this mile-and-a-quarter at Churchill Downs, in Grade 1 company off an obvious fast pace and from gate 14 (which is actually ideal), he can raise his game to more than the required level for Brad Cox under Luis Saez and become the latest Run for the Roses champion.

Rock Your World, Known Agenda, Highly Motivated and Hot Rod Charlie may well prove to be best of the rest in Louisville.

Sunday 2nd May 2021

1.15 Newmarket (Handicap) – WESTERN SYMPHONY

Charlie Appleby’s Western Symphony, a thrice-raced son of Shamardal, has plenty of talent but has been a bit wayward so far. He’s straightening up gradually, has now been gelded, is getting better all the time and can now prove to be very well handicapped.

2.25 Newmarket (Pretty Polly Stakes – Listed Race) – A’SHAARI

It’s noteworthy that A’Shaari was available at bigger prices this week and has shortened plenty, and it’s certainly no surprise. In unsuitable conditions (seven furlongs, soft) she ran a terrific debut last year, but now over this mile-and-a-quarter on faster ground she can move into contention for the Oaks.

3.40 Newmarket (1000 Guineas – Group 1) – SACRED

There’s been much talk of how open the 2000 Guineas is this year, but despite there being a general 5/4 favourite one could argue the fillies’ race is even more competitive.

Difficult to split were Thunder Beauty, Fev Rover, Statement, Saffron Beach, Alcohol Free who looks more of a sprinter, the favourite Santa Barbara and her stablemate Mother Earth.

That favourite, trained by Aidan O’Brien, may well prove to be a world-beater. She may monster this field, but backing her at such short odds having only won a maiden that hasn’t even worked out very well is not the work of a pro.

So, with Santa Barbara taken on, the value in the race is with the Nell Gwyn winner Sacred. William Haggas and Tom Marquand are in great form and both think the stamina doubts surrounding this daughter of Exceed And Excel will be dispelled.

Sacred is a strong traveller and should have plenty in reserve at the end of this race, and can get the job done in an open year.

Friday 23rd & Saturday 24th April 2021: Yibir to Add to Appleby Classic Crop

It’s a very busy weekend, with most of the top action at Sandown. Friday is Classic Trial Day on the flat, while Saturday is Jump Finale Day.

During the latter, Irish Prophecy looks a big price in the bet365 Gold Cup, Frodon is odds-on, the Select Hurdle is very tight and there is a fascinating clash between Put The Kettle On and Altior.

The value may well lie elsewhere however, with these eight being where our money is going over the two days: 

Friday 23rd April 2021

1.50 Sandown (Esher Cup Handicap) – QUINTILLUS

A competitive handicap as always, but it’s one that the current hotshots at Charlie Appleby’s yard can take to add to their ever-growing haul this season.

Their Quintillus, having just his fourth race and first in a handicap, is improving all the time yet was never likely to have been suited by things when running fourth behind Fundamental at Chelmsford last time.

By Dubawi out of a Nashwan mare, he is beautifully bred, can take another leap forward here and off this mark looks likely to get his head in front with Tawaareq, Dingle and Buxted Too preferred to shorter-priced Ilza’Eem.

2.25 Sandown (Gordon Richards Stakes – Group 3) – WALDKONIG

There was a rather major move with the sponsors for Sir Michael Stoute’s Highest Ground on Thursday, but it’s partly due to him that Waldkonig looks more backable now.

Always thought to be very high class, the now four-year-old of John & Thady Gosden’s was a strong favourite to beat Highest Ground at one point last season and frankly he should have done.

He demolished a handicap field at Pontefract last time and seems to be coming of age, so while Thunderous and Highest Ground appear close based on their Dante form of last season and Waldkonig was always considered better than they are, his match fitness should give him a clear edge. Hukum is well fancied but may need the run.

2.50 Doncaster (Handicap) – SIDE SHOT

In the grand scheme of things considering this weekend’s action this tight-looking £9,000, 66-85 handicap doesn’t seem all that important.

However, when assessing the form of this field it seemed entirely reliable and so the numbers really appear to stack up. Those numbers, by my reckoning, have John & Thady Gosden’s Side Shot a few pounds clear of this field and so he’s worth a bet.

His main rival is Colonel Faulkner, but his best form is not guaranteed in the conditions while Taravara has a little more to find.

3.35 Sandown (Classic Trial – Group 3) – YIBIR

While Martyn Meade’s Lone Eagle remains of interest, this could be all about the Godolphin runners and it’s unlike William Buick to pick the wrong one (though Frankie has to ride Trawlerman).

On a line through Megallan, as well as Adayar and Trawlerman who Yibir beat to the first-choice Godolphin colours, it would appear that the Dubawi colt has enough ability to see off this field and add his name to Charlie Appleby’s growing classic team, perhaps heading to York next.

Both Adayar and Trawlerman are improving nicely, however Yibir has the look of a real Derby candidate, hasn’t been overly pressed as yet, and having been off since September is likely to have improved a hell of a lot since last seen on the track.

4.10 Sandown (Fillies’ Novice Stakes) – CHIASMA

We don’t advise too many newcomers, especially when they’re not big prices. Because of Chiasma’s pedigree, she won’t be massive either but there is a ton of evidence to suggest she shouldn’t struggle when making her debut here on good, fast racing ground.

Chiasma is a full sister to Frankel, the only sister he’ll ever have now that dam Kind has passed away, and the whole family tend to be at or very near three figures in terms of ratings by this age.

With that in mind, Royal Harmony (by Shamardal out of a Dubawi mare) is well bred but statistically unlikely to be at the same level, while Nash Nasha for Godolphin has arguably run to a level of around 65 and 75 so far, so even with improvement and giving away 7lbs, she shouldn’t get near the Juddmonte mare who will have all eyes on her on Friday afternoon.

Saturday 24th April 2021

2.10 Leicester (King Richard III Stakes – Listed Race) – MUMS TIPPLE

An interesting wee Listed race over seven furlongs. Lord Campari has been a little over bet considering his achievements so far and that he may not be at his best in the conditions, while the 112-rated Pogo naturally remains of strong interest.

The value in the race comes with Richard Hannon’s Mums Tipple however. Spectacular in a sales race at 2, he’s been slowly getting close to his very best and didn’t want the full mile behind a very good rival last time. This should suit a lot more and he’s backed to give away 3lbs.

2.50 Haydock (Handicap) – PERSUASION 

A thoroughly decent price for this Class 2, seven-furlong handicap is Charlie Hills’ Persuasion with William Buick on board.

Although not really going on last year, Persuasion was an excellent debut winner at 2 during Glorious Goodwood and also finished second to Wichita in a Group race. He finished the year well on soft ground however and looks set for a better season now.

This is a quicker race than he’s had for a while which is exactly what he appears to need, so we can now see the best of him. Dreamloper and the bang in form Gobi Sunset also made the shortlist.

5.55 Doncaster (Handicap) – THIBAAN 

Assuming in this five-runner race that he’s not forced down to a silly price, which is doubtful, then Thibaan is worth a small bet.

A four-year-old of Sir Michael Stoute’s, he’s almost guaranteed to improve plenty this season. Having finished a fine second to Frankly Darling last June, his best run was over this course and distance on similar ground and now having had a breathing operation, he can comfortably outrun was now looks like a lenient mark of 87.

Saturday 17th & Sunday 18th April 2021: Alkumait to Advertise Guineas Credentials

It’s yet another huge weekend of racing, but we have to wait until Sunday to see most of the big-hitters.

The Scottish Grand National card at Ayr and Newbury’s Greenham Stakes day have been moved to accommodate the funeral of Prince Phillip on Saturday.

We have a (very) early bet from Australia on Saturday morning, with all of our other information saved for the two big Sunday meetings.

Saturday 17th April 2021

6.50 Randwick (Queen Elizabeth Stakes – Group 1) - ADDEYBB

This is the fourth battle between William Haggas’ Addeybb and Australian “wondermare” Verry Elleegant. The score currently stands at 3-1 to Addeybb with the mare winning last time out, but there are few things that need to be picked up on here.

First of all, Verry Elleegant is no wonder mare. She is decent, good in the context of Australian Group races, but no wonder.

Addeybb had a foot problem last time out and perhaps should not have run. He’s working a lot sharper now, as you’d expect, wears different headgear and Tom Marquand is happy with him.

At anywhere near his best, he wins this race without any problem. The only worry is the drying weather, but with any ‘soft’ listed in the going description he should manage to win his fourth Group 1 race before we’ve even woken up on Saturday morning!

Addeybb beat his big rival twice last season. While she has remained at pretty much the same level according to the clock and the numbers, Addeybb actually improved quite a lot to ultimately win the Champion Stakes in October. If’s near his ‘A’ game, we should see him get back on track.

Sunday 18th April 2021

1.35 Newbury (John Porter Stakes – Group 3) – AL AASY

Al Aasy had a problem last year which curtailed his improvement as a three-year-old, but should come back to the track with a bang.

Both of his main rivals, Deja and Without A Fight, are coming off similar layoffs and so there is no disadvantage there, and we must remember that Al Aasy was thought of by the William Haggas team as a potential Group 1 horse last campaign.

This particular mile-and-a-half should be ideal and he can win this before being aimed at bigger targets later in the season, the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot perhaps being what the team has in mind.

The highest rated horse here officially is Deja (112). It is interesting to note that Al Aasy reached 108 as far back as last July when winning the Bahrain Trophy (Group 3), and so even with basic and natural progression from three to four, he’d be a fair bit better than 112 now.

2.25 Ayr (Scottish Champion Hurdle – Grade 2 Handicap) – THYME WHITE

At these prices, a chance can be taken on Paul Nicholls’ runner Thyme White. His form figures this season of 1U90 would have the casual observer believing he’s out of form and/or has lost his way, but that is not the truth at all.

His 9th was in the Betfair Hurdle against 22 rivals in what was a solid performance, while his 0 was actually a 12th of 25 in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

His form remains solid in fact, but in a slightly easier race, on this track, against fewer rivals and on quicker ground we can see Thyme White’s superior pace between flights of hurdles kick in and he looks on that basis to be very good value indeed.

Milkwood, who is favourite for Neil Mulholland, and Calico of Dan Skelton’s yard are both fancied and indeed rate as Thyme White’s biggest dangers.

2.45 Newbury (Greenham Stakes – Group 1) – ALKUMAIT

This is an interesting one and a genuine 2000 Guineas trial. Chindit has some of the best form in the book, but at around 2/1 he seems mightily short in the market.

Fundamental could improve for having had a run this season and may sneak a place, but there are some interesting links between Alkumait and Mujbar to look more closely at.

Both are Shadwell horses, with Alkumait having the better form and being shorter in the market. Strangely, Jim Crowley appears to be saddled up on Mujbar but even with his Horris Hill form, on ground he didn’t like, he just doesn’t seem to be at the same level as Alkumait.

That colt was an excellent juvenile and was brilliant at this track when landing the Mill Reef from out wide. He is by Showcasing, who was also the sire of the awesome Mohaather who won this race for the same trainer, Marcus Tregoning.

I think his pace will win this but he’ll be able to see it out, with Dane O’Neill able to take the plaudits this time before Crowley no doubt takes over in the Guineas in two weeks’ time.

3.35 Ayr (Scottish Grand National – Grade 3) – DINGO DOLLAR

This is a very tough race, naturally, but there are logical reasons to believe that Sandy Thomson’s Dingo Dollar will be very well handicapped for the event.

Having joined from Alan King’s stable, Dingo Dollar came right back to his best first time up for Thomson when winning easily at Newcastle. Given how facile the win was and that it was his first for the yard, it is very hard to believe that it was as good as it’s going to get for the nine-year-old.

Dingo Dollar will stay, he’ll appreciate the dry ground and has the assistance up top of Brian Hughes who is still fighting Harry Skelton for the jockey’s championship.

Of the others, there are plenty in with chances of course. Eider Chase winner Sam’s Adventure could go well having been given time to recover from his exploits, while Aye Right is very consistent and is a relatively short-priced favourite for the race.

Somewhat of a Grand National specialist now is Lucinda Russel’s Mighty Thunder, while at a bigger price there may be some great each-way value in Coup De Pinceau. Dingo Dollar it is who gets the vote however, hopefully at something close to a double-figure price.

Friday 9th & Saturday 10th April 2021: Candy a Sweet Bet in Grand National

It’s Grand National weekend at long last, and we have a solid selection in the big race as well as plenty of other flat and jumps information across both Friday and Saturday.

Friday 9th April 2021

3.25 Aintree (Melling Chase – Grade 1) – FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES

For many of us, it feels as though Joseph O’Brien’s Fakir D’oudairies has been around forever but he’s still only a six-year-old, is improving, and can come of age now in this top-grade two-and-a-half-mile race.

After the crushing success of Clan Des Obeaux in Thursday’s Betway Bowl, many will be on Paul Nicholls and Politologue who to be fair has proven himself to be of the highest quality in the past.

Over this trip however, it is easy to see Fakir D’oudairies improving past him now having chased home Chacun Pour Soi and Allaho the last twice.

3.55 Leicester (Novice Stakes) – KNIGHT’S TOWN

It could be worth a quick betting trip over to Leicester for their flat meeting during the excellent Aintree action, as there should be a price available about Charlie Appleby’s Knight’s Town in the 1½-mile novice race.

The Godolphin first colours are on John Gosden’s Law Of The Sea, a Derby entry who is by Golden Horn. He’s run twice so far and is now a winner, but his bare form doesn’t entitle him to be a short-priced favourite and he has to give fully 7lbs to our horse.

Knight’s Town, ridden by William Buick who is back on these shores, wasn’t great first time up at Kempton but he went off 2/1 favourite for his debut and should be much better on turf. Should he run to the sort of level so often seen by Appleby horses in such races, he should be good enough at the weights.

4.40 Aintree (Sefton Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1) – BRAVEMANSGAME

Several people connected to the Paul Nicholls yard have said for some time that their Bravemansgame is the real deal and, while he couldn’t quite prove it at Cheltenham, he should be fitter now and can do himself justice.

That en vogue big break between Christmas and the Cheltenham Festival is not something I like and it was a break Bravemansgame was forced to take. He eventually finished third behind Bob Olinger in the Ballymore but he should be 100% now, this looks much more to his liking, and frankly he looks well clear of his opposition.

Chief among that opposition is Cape Gentleman, a Grade 2 winner at Kempton for Emmet Mullins, and Bothwell Bridge who may challenge for the places but may prove to be not good enough to get to Harry Cobden’s mount.

Saturday 10th April 2021

2.25 Aintree (Mersey Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1) – MY DROGO

Dan and Harry Skelton look to be in pole position to begin Saturday in the perfect way, with their My Drogo on a four-timer and ready to land his first Grade 1 race.

This 2½ miles is a new trip for him, but he seems to get better the further he goes. He was impressive over two miles in the Supreme Trial at Ascot in December (Grade 2), before looking even better over 2m2f in the same grade at Kelso when winning by 9½ lengths last month.

He looks to be well clear of Ballyadam, who does come with a big reputation considering he is trained by Henry De Bromhead and is ridden by Rachael Blackmore, while Dreal Deal and Minella Drama look good enough to fight for places.

3.35 Aintree (Liverpool Hurdle – Grade 1) – THYME HILL

Many of us waited for months to back Thyme Hill in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, on the basis at least that he looks sure to improve past Paisley Park once and for all.

On this flat track and with the ground not too deep, he can certainly do that now and there is no Flooring Porter in the line-up this time around.

In behind Thyme Hill, Paisley Park himself, Roksana and Lisnagar Oscar all look capable of challenging but are all at a similar level all things considered, but the selection is still getting better and has been trained to reach a peak right now having missed the Festival in March. Tom O’Brien rides for Philip Hobbs.

5.15 Aintree (Grand National Handicap Chase – Grade 3) – KIMBERLITE CANDY

We have a fascinating and long-awaited Grand National this time around. Having waited two years, witnessed controversy over the weights (mainly unfair and driven by the O’Leary’s), seen the withdrawal of Tiger Roll and been aghast at the price of the favourite the race is set up brilliantly.

Cloth Cap is that favourite and, at around 4/1, would be one of the shortest priced favourites ever. He is well clear at the weights, but this is a unique race and it feels like the bookmakers are trying to begin a pattern here of squeezing the top of the Grand National market for all it’s worth.

Against him is Kimberlite Candy, a long-term candidate for this. Twice runner-up in the Becher over these fences, Tom Lacey’s runner jumps well, stays brilliantly and is set to peak in the biggest race of all so he gets the nod to land the £375,000 first prize.

The likes of Mister Malarky and Lord Du Mesnil can also go well, while it’ll be interesting to see whether the still well handicapped Welsh Grand National winner Secret Reprieve can get a run being second reserve at present.

11.03 Keeneland (Jenny Wiley Stakes – Grade 1) – MICHELINE 

Over in the States late on Saturday night, Keeneland runs the top-level Jenny Wiley Stakes over the extended mile on the turf track for fillies and mares.

It’s close in the betting market, with Godolphin’s Micheline, Juliet Foxtrot, Etole and Tamahere all ensuring we have a competitive betting event.

On very best form the six-year-old Juliet Foxtrot would be the one, Brad Cox’s runner being ridden first time out this season by the excellent Tyler Gaffalione.

Four-year-old Micheline is improving however, is race fit and looks well capable of landing this event and so is backed to do so from gate 1 on the inside.