Friday 27th & Saturday 28th August 2021: Mutasaabeq to Create a Celebration

We have another fantastic weekend of flat action coming up right across the racing world.

Goodwood hosts the March Stakes and the all-important Celebration Mile, Beverley stages its most important race of the year (the Bullet), there is Listed action at Newmarket and Windsor hosts the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes.

We have Group 1 action in Australia, while over in the States it’s Travers Day at Saratoga meaning we should get more clues for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November.

We begin at HQ on Friday before looking forward to the evening meetings at Hamilton and Goodwood.

Friday 27th August 2021

2.55 Newmarket (Handicap) – ZAGATO

Cosmos Raj should prove to be popular here. Coming into the race on a hat-trick, the gelded son of Ifraaj is trained by Yorkshire-based David O’Meara and has James Doyle on board.

There are a number of punting ‘signposts’ then, however the truth is Doyler has been on board for both of those recent wins, which were narrow, and he doesn’t look particularly well in unless there is suddenly plenty more ability is unearthed.

Headingly remains of interest for Mark Johnston as does Marcus Tregoning’s Tasfeeq, but the most fascinating contender is Zagato.

John & Thady Gosden’s runner, still a colt and with plenty of improvement to come, showed when beaten narrowly behind Irish Legend and Siam Fox that a run into the 90’s is within his compass.

He took a novice race easily in June while his last run can be ignored, so off a mark of 85 he looks nicely handicapped.

6.40 Hamilton (Lanark Silver Bell Handicap) – MAHRAJAAN

There are five last time out winners in the Lanark Silver Bell, First Impression being the only horse not at least placed last time out in what looks at a glance to be a competitive field.

As well as John Quinn’s horse, who despite being the odd one out has a good place chance here, Dash Of Spice (Adrian Keatley) and Big Kitten (Mark Johnston) can go well but this looks like a great opportunity on handicap debut for William Haggas’ Mahrajaan.

The Shadwell gelding, by Kitten’s Joy, has done nothing wrong so far. Third on debut behind Wood Ditton winner Peter The Great, he won ever so easily next time over 1¼ miles at Leicester.

Upped to this mile-and-a-half trip at Ripon, he took care of Oscillates by a comfortable and yawning 9½ lengths, a horse who went on to win a handicap next time by well over three lengths.

Paul Hanagan jumps on here, who rode Oscillates in the aforementioned race, and this chap looks to be a minimum of 10lbs well in and potentially over a stone.

6.53 Goodwood (Fillies’ Handicap) – LOLA SHOWGIRL

A reasonable fillies’ handicap over the mile. Stunning Beauty is likely to be all the rage, the horse who was famously left behind when fancied at Royal Ascot before pulling up. Either side of that, she won at Doncaster and finished third at Newmarket so she’s obviously still in good form.

The filly that actually won the Royal Ascot race was Lola Showgirl, her second win in a row, and she can go in once more.

Improving nicely before meeting defeat last time out, she faced a particularly soggy Haydock Park and will appreciate Goodwood and the faster ground much more. Dalanijujo is best of the rest.

Saturday 28th August 2021

1.50 Goodwood (Prestige Stakes – Group 3) – TINDERBOX

The Gosden filly Tinderbox ran second on debut to Value Theory, a good yardstick and in opposition again here, before showing plenty of improvement in her 2½-length win at Kempton Park.

That was done in the style of a good filly and she’s up to this sort of level at a value price for Godolphin and Frankie Dettori.

Value Theory, Hello You, Daneh and Mise En Scene may all be of a similar ability.

2.25 Goodwood (Handicap) – PERSUASION

Charlie Hills’ Persuasion is the classic forgotten horse in many ways, but he clearly has plenty of ability.

He was excellent on debut at two at Goodwood, finished second to the likes of Wichita and Threat in Group company and won in style for this column at 8/1 back in April.

He loves this track and trip and is potentially still well ahead of the handicapper.

Aratus has only been beaten once and has gone up only 4lbs for his latest win, while Al Rufaa is returning after the best part of a year out and may just need the run.

2.45 Newmarket (Hopeful Stakes – Listed Race) – ROYAL CRUSADE

Tabdeed will be a short priced fancy here and he has strong form - fourth and third in Group 3’s, he is six now and not guaranteed to hold his form.

The value is in Royal Crusade. Godolphin have always kept the faith in him. He won on debut here and in a Deauville Group 3, beating Glen Shiel no less.

He’s been in and out this season, but he’s recently gelded and with his mind fully on the job in hand he can carry on moving upwards.

3.35 Goodwood (Celebration Mile – Group 2) – MUTASAABEQ 

Very surprisingly, Benbatl runs here instead of at Windsor as he makes an eagerly-awaited return to the track.

I’d have been all over him there, but my feeling is that he may need all of the mile-and-a-quarter trip the Winter Hill Stakes would have offered rather than this sharp mile.

The value then is in Mutasaabeq. His eye-catching performance in a Conditions race in April put him in line for the Guineas, but he didn’t stay in that race.

He was on the wrong side of the track on horrible ground in the Jersey Stakes, but came back with an easy Conditions Stakes win at Haydock last time and he’s ready for this. 

He could come of age in Group company, ahead of Benbatl, Perotto and Chindit.

Friday 20th & Saturday 21st August 2021: Marshall the Plan in Melrose

This weekend sees favourites Stradivarius, Trueshan, Spanish Mission, Zeyaadah and plenty more looking for success, while the admirable Malathaat looks to get back on track at Grade 1 level in the States.

For us, it’s all about York, Sandown and even California over Friday and Saturday with these little beauties: 

Friday 20th August 2021

3.00 York (Gimcrack Stakes – Group 2) – ORAZIO

The Gimcrack is always a high-quality juvenile race, though this time around it could be one of the outsiders which proves to be the best of the bunch.

The outsider in question is Orazio, trained by Charlie Hills and ridden by the excellent William Buick. His winning debut at Windsor in June was as good as anything else in this field managed first time up, while his defeat in third place at Newbury last time can be easily forgiven.

He was bumped at the start that day and was found to have a wound near his knee, with a fully fit son of Caravaggio now expected to reach the level we all know he’s capable of. Coventry winner Berkshire Shadow is next best ahead of Fearby and Lusail.

3.35 York (Nunthorpe Stakes – Group 1) – SUESA

There’s plenty of talk about Coolmore’s American-trained runner Golden Pal, and while he will have been wound up for this superb five-furlong contest his form so far does not back up his position at the head of the market.

Favourite really should be the French filly Suesa. I was as guilty as anyone in naively believing that she needed six furlongs and/or softer ground before she went to Goodwood. There, she destroyed her King George Stakes field over the minimum distance and looks as though she’ll relish this particular speed test even more.

She could be simply too hot for them on the day under that man Buick, with young filly Winter Power perhaps her biggest danger alongside fellow three-year-old Dragon Symbol.

The latter seems to be consistent in various conditions, while the former is two from two over the course and distance this year and will no doubt have had her best form held back for this very race by the wily Tim Easterby.

There’s quality in behind of course, with Chil Chil, Emaraaty Ana and Moss Gill not ruled out for places.

5.10 York (Handicap) – ROYAL FLEET

Completing our trio of Knavesmire bets on Friday is Godolphin’s Royal Fleet in this classy one-mile handicap.

As coincidence would have it, we’re relying on William Buick once again in the saddle, but this is really all about an improving three-year-old son of Dubawi.

Three from three in his career now, Royal Fleet took a Newmarket handicap last time producing some good sectionals despite having to race all on his own for large parts. He’ll appreciate being in behind a more competitive field around the bend here and can now reach a new level.

Wishaah and Dejame Paso are also getting better, while Rifleman should prove to be popular in the ring. Aldaary remains very capable, but doesn’t look the best handicapped horse in the line-up this time.

Saturday 21st August 2021

2.25 York (Melrose Handicap) – MARSHALL PLAN

This is a hugely competitive race over the Ebor course and distance. Dhushan remains on an upward curve and can go well yet again, while old rivals Valley Forge and Moshaawer have plenty more to give.

King Of The Castle is interesting at the top of the weights for Aidan O’Brien, but the overpriced one in the field is definitely Marshall Plan.

John & Thady Gosden’s young colt has close form with some smart types on the all-weather, not least Mandoob who could yet make the top level.

He’s only run once on the turf when finishing 4½ lengths back in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot having endured a bad trip, and now this step up in trip to 1¾ miles looks ideal.

2.40 Sandown (Atalanta Stakes – Group 3) – POTAPOVA

Potapova has been ready to go for some time but her chances have been limited because of the unseasonably soft ground.

Assuming there is no deluge at Sandown Park, Sir Michael Stoute’s classy three-year-old filly can finally take her chance again and can prove to be too good at this level.

An easy and impressive winner of a novice race at Redcar in May, she was thought of as a Group 1 filly and contested the Coronation Stakes at the royal meeting. It didn’t go well there, mainly because of the going, but she’s overpriced to gain compensation in a lower grade.

Indigo Girl is an obvious danger, while the likes of Saffron Beach, Maamora, Auria and Waliyak may also attract some support.

3.00 York (City of York Stakes – Group 2) – SPACE BLUES

The unusual schedule means that many trainers had to decide on whether to go for the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes last weekend over seven furlongs, or wait for this one at York.

This race was always Charlie Appleby’s plan for Space Blues and he should really prove to be simply too good in faster racing conditions.

Next on the list is stablemate Glorious Journey, while Safe Voyage and Primo Bacio may also contest the places.

2.30 Del Mar (Pacific Classic – Grade 1) – ROYAL SHIP

There is yet more fantastic Grade 1 action on both coasts in the States this weekend, but while I very much hope to see Malathaat get back to winning ways in the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga en route to the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she’s not a betting proposition.

The Pacific Classic however, a major mile-and-a-quarter event leading towards the Breeders’ Cup Classic, provides a little bit of betting value.

Express Train managed to beat Royal Ship last time they met, but it seems the shorter distance was very much in Express Train’s favour at Del Mar and so a turnaround is expected over this trip with Richard Mandella’s Royal Ship now favoured.

Two runs ago Royal Ship was beaten only a head in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup over 1m2f giving away 2lbs, Express Train some 4¼ lengths behind on that occasion. Tripoli and Independence Hall are also worth considering.

Friday 13th & Saturday 14th August 2021: Hail Al in Hungerford Stakes

Sunday afternoon sees a potentially explosive Group 1 battle taking place in France, as a now fit Palace Pier takes on Poetic Flare and Alpine Star in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville.

For us, it’s mostly about the domestic action however as we kick off a weekend featuring eight value bets beginning with a Newmarket handicap on Friday night.

Friday 13th August 2021

7.38 Newmarket (Handicap) – HYDROS 

An otherwise relatively underwhelming card at HQ finishes off on Friday with this fairly classy one-mile handicap on the July Course.

Sir Michael Stoute may hold the cards here, his Thibaan still looking potentially ahead of the handicapper and holding a chance here however it’s the more lightly-raced Hydros from his camp that gets the vote.

Richard Kingscote is on hand to take the ride on a four-year-old who made a fairly pleasing comeback over the course and distance recently following a long break during which he had wind surgery, the son of Frankel doubtless being very comfortable in these conditions and able to now show his very best.

Saturday 14th August 2021 

1.45 Newbury (Denford Stakes – Listed Race) – BAYSIDE BOY

After chasing home Native Trail in the Superlative Stakes last time out, it’s not surprising to see Andrew Balding’s Masakela at the top of the market.

That was a tough race for him, his third to date, and it may be that he doesn’t take the step forward right now that many would expect. Even if he does, he’s up against an impressive pair of first-time-out winners here who could reach a high level.

Seattle King is one of those for the Ralph Beckett yard, but easily the most intriguing horse in the line-up is Bayside Boy who is counted on here.

Roger Varian’s colt was 9/1 on debut, but cruised into his race over course and distance after a tardy start to win in very impressive fashion. Given his prep and the way in which he won, lots of improvement from race one to race two is expected and he already holds entries in Group 2 and Group 1 races later in the season.

2.00 Newmarket (Fillies’ Handicap) – QUENELLE D’OR

Goolwa, Midrarr and Eileendover will all be fancied for this, but frankly I was very surprised to see Hugo Palmer’s Quenelle D’Or open up at such a big price on Thursday.

The Golden Horn filly, with a record of two wins and three thirds in 8 races, has run by my reckoning to ratings of at least 90+ recently. She’s improving overall, hasn’t always had the rub of the green, and on a line through some of her past rivals can reach a mark closer to 100 now.

She gets in here off only 88 and so seems obviously well handicapped to me and too good to miss at the potential odds.

2.55 Newbury (Handicap) – ARATUS 

Ajyaall has the potential to improve further yet, while Sunset Bay comes into this race on a hat-trick and obviously cannot be dismissed lightly. The credentials of Aratus are just too impressive to ignore, however.

Clive Cox’s three-year-old, still a colt and having only his third ever run, opened up last season by being narrowly beaten by the now 103 rated Oo De Lally. He won very easily next time out before an enforced break and a breathing operation.

Upon returning to the track at Doncaster last month, Aratus destroyed his field by a very comfortable 7½ lengths which to my eye should have handed him a rating of around the 105 mark. He was given only 94 instead, so given that and the likelihood of further improvement coming in conditions we already know suit him, he really should make short work of this field at the weights.

3.25 Deauville (Prix Guillaume d’Ornano – Group 2) – DERAB

It’s all about Sunday and the Marois for most British raiders, however the Palace Pier combo of Frankie Dettori and the Gosdens may well strike as early as Saturday in this very valuable Group 2 race.

More than £200,000 is up for grabs to the winner of this event, and it’s Derab who has the best profile. A very taking winner at Newmarket back in May, the Derby was even talked about for this Sea The Stars colt but he was ultimately held back for the French version.

Things didn’t go his way that day, but he ran extremely well in defeat behind Real World last time, strong form indeed, and with more progression likely he looks a few pounds ahead of the likes of Millebosc, Pretty Tiger, Highland Avenue and the rest.

3.30 Newbury (Hungerford Stakes – Group 2) – AL SUHAIL

This is a very intriguing contest. Despite being worth around a quarter of a race run at the same level five minutes earlier in France, it is far more competitive which says a lot about British racing right now both on the positive and negative sides.

D’bai is no forlorn hope, Dreamloper has every chance, Sacred won the Nell Gwyn this season and now gets her trip and ground while the Shadwell team run Laneqash, Danyah and Motakhayyel who could all be very similar in terms of ability.

The one to be on however should be Godolphin’s first choice Al Suhail. Supplemented for last year’s 2000 Guineas, this chap has always been held in high regard and despite flopping in the classic came back to register a devasting Listed-class performance thereafter.

Having been gelded, he’s returned to Britain from Dubai and has already posted a very strong 1¾-length third behind Tilsit which is great form, with a new career peak now likely and the seven furlongs looking perfect for him. He’s still thought of as a potential Group 1 horse, something we shouldn’t forget.

3.40 Newmarket (Handicap) – BANDINELLI 

A small Class 4 handicap over a mile-and-a-half, this isn’t the sort of race in which we’d usually find a potentially classy runner who remains well handicapped by this point of the season.

Bandinelli however is just that type. Having already won at Wolverhampton in January, his very close form giving away 7lbs to Marshall Plan, now rated 92, and Golden Flame who is now rated 91 shows you where he most likely stands for real.

Here, he runs off a mark of only 85 and now that he’s been gelded, he can get right back on track.

4.00 Newbury (Handicap) – CAMELOT TALES

Tawaareq is getting better and Arctic Vega has a chance, but Camelot Tales is still climbing the ladder quickly himself and was only defeated last time because of running too freely. Buick knows him now and can guide him to his third win.

Friday 6th & Saturday 7th August 2021: Stoute to Pot at Haydock in Dick Hern

Our shouts this week are rather Godolphin heavy, but such is their dominance of racing in various territories these days.

The Boys in Blue have some outstanding chances across the world this weekend, and we’re going for a number of theirs to score alongside a Cheveley Park filly who could finally come of age.

Friday 6th August 2021 

6.08 Newmarket (Newcomers’ Maiden Stakes) – HAFIT

The market is bound to be informative here, as you’d expect so keep that in mind, but one horse very much stands out on paper.

Based on breeding, relations and price tag allied with what is usually expected of one of Charlie Appleby’s better juveniles on debut, Hafit is the most obvious winner.

One of the most expensive buys anywhere in Europe last year, Hafit is related to Attraction, Thibaan, Brundtland, Hukum and Baaed. Money for Just Wonder, Laasudood or Millennial Moon would be of interest.

10.39 Saratoga (Troy Stakes – Grade 3) – LAZULI

Lazuli is a sprinter I’ve followed for some time, one that is a Listed and dual Group 3 winner yet has been handled patiently by Charlie Appleby.

He hasn’t been thrown in at the top level yet, indeed even this $200,000 event is run at Grade 3 standard, but he has terrific ability and has been sent to the States to take part in this fantastic Saratoga summer meet in order to get his preferred fast ground.

The turf is firm at Saratoga currently which will be ideal, and this chap definitely has the pace to see off the locals, with the only slight negative being his draw in gate 10. He would have been a more confident shout from an inside berth, but with a local morning line price of 8/1 we can afford to take a chance.

Saturday 7th August 2021 

2.25 Haydock (Handicap) – ROYAL MEWS

Rain is expected before racing at Haydock on Saturday, but as long as there is no Goodwood-style deluge then it shouldn’t bother Royal Mews who can score for the Gosdens.

Dubai Mirage, Fantastic Fox and Thibaan all have solid credentials, but none are any significant way ahead of the handicapper and so this selection is all about potential.

Sandwiched between two poor runs was a rather nice win at Lingfield on a fast surface for Royal Mews, an easy 6½-length success and one that even without improvement makes him potentially well in here off 91.

He’s ready to go again, and it’s noted that the top three rated offspring of Siyouni; St Marks Basilica, Sottsass and Le Brivido, all went very well on rain-softened ground so if the clouds do open up it should play into his hands.

3.35 Haydock (Dick Hern Stakes – Listed Race) – POTAPOVA

Assuming good to soft ground or better, we should finally see the sort of performance we’ve been waiting for from Sir Michael Stoute’s Potapova.

There is some quality around in this line-up, Maamora is especially expected to go well in a first-time visor, but Cheveley Park have far from given up on this filly being a Group 1 horse and she can win en route to bigger and better things.

Potapova hated the ground went thrown into top company at Royal Ascot, but other than that she’s two for two after winning very easily on debut and in a novice at Redcar and now she is ready for new heights under a jockey, Richard Kingscote, who could ride a winner at Haydock with his goggles blacked out.

4.00 Newmarket (Handicap) – KOMACHI

This is just a small race, only four go to post, but it’s full of quality as a Class 2 event and all of the quartet have a chance on the book.

Far Hope is perhaps the worst handicapped, Zagato after him, while Storm Damage is likely to be fancied to carry on Saeed bin Suroor’s terrific run. That horse’s Godolphin team mate, Komachi, is the one taken to score however.

Charlie Appleby’s runner has been in some good company, chasing home Oo De Lally on debut and Baeed last time with a win thrown in between, and looks capable of running to mark some 7lbs or more above his first handicap mark.

4.30 Newmarket (Handicap) – QUINTILLUS

I liked Quintillus at a big price at Ascot where he was third, and again for his intended run last weekend before he was pulled out on account of the ground.

He’s ready to win alright, and can prove it over a seven-furlong track which is likely to suit under William Buick with Fame And Acclaim and Lexington Dash next on the list.

10.10 Saratoga (Saratoga Derby Invitational – Grade 1) – SECRET PROTECTOR

Saratoga’s meet continues and there could be more success in New York for Charlie Appleby after Althiqa’s pair of Grade 1 wins recently.

There is a strong European challenge, Jessica Harrington’s Cadillac looking good and last-time-out American winner Bolshoi Ballet being likely to go off favourite for Aidan O’Brien.

Bolshoi Ballet was a strong fancy for the Derby and has now scored at the top level, but his actual form isn’t as strong as you might imagine and he was suited by the wider turns at Belmont last time.

Secret Protector however is ready to step up and may improve past him now. His form with Highland Avenue and Mohaafeth reads well, he’s getting better all the time and has the speed for this contest at a potentially very juicy price. Mike Smith takes the ride.

10.48 Saratoga (Whitney Stakes – Grade 1) – MAXFIELD

The feature race on ‘Whitney Day’, this 1m1f contest is worth a cool $1 million and the bulk of that can go the way of Maxfield.

Coming out top on my private ratings, Maxfield has also consistently been voted among top American handicappers as the no.1 contender for the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year, yet comes into this race as second favourite despite receiving 2lbs in weight from Knicks Go.

His main market rival, as well as Swiss Skydiver, can make him work for sure but Maxfield is the real deal and can finally land his second Grade 1 win after a taking success in the Stephen Foster last time out.

Friday 30th & Saturday 31st July 2021: Sayyida’s Cup Runneth Over in Chalice Stakes

It’s Stewards’ Cup Day on Saturday as Glorious Goodwood comes to a close, while brilliant three-year-old Essential Quality warms up for the Travers Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Classic over at Saratoga.

Betting-wise however, this bunch of beauties racing on Friday and Saturday provide us with the best value over the weekend.

Friday 30th July 2021

3.00 Goodwood (Golden Mile Handicap) – PATH OF THUNDER

This is a typically competitive Golden Mile, but it’s one in which Charlie Appleby’s Path Of Thunder can prove to be particularly well handicapped.

An easy winner last time at Newmarket ahead of some classy types, he’s been bumped up 8lbs but that still does not represent accurately his true ability and he can add this race to his CV. Johan and Magical Morning are best of the rest.

3.35 Goodwood (King George Stakes – Group 2) – BATTAASH

In a normal year, the Bat Mobile would have been odds-on for this race. As it is his price is drifting, but as long as he puts in even his B-game he can take care of this field.

His run in the King’s Stand at Ascot after injury, all things considered, was very good and he is now at full match fitness. Goodwood is Battaash’s favourite track and he should have too much pace here.

The likes of Dragon Symbol and Suesa (if the ground isn’t too quick for them by Friday afternoon, as well as Art Power and Glass Slippers are all decent but not up to the level of Charlie Hills’ brilliant seven-year-old who looks to win this for the fifth year in a row.

4.10 Goodwood (Glorious Stakes – Group 3) – MOGUL

We’ve seen precious little this week of the very biggest names in the training ranks however this race could go the way of the Aidan O’Brien team.

Mogul hasn’t won yet this season, but conditions are coming right for him now and a look back at his form suggests he can begin to peak for the season around this time.

He’s won over the course and distance before and can take care of Euchen Glen and Passion And Glory.

Saturday 31st July 2021 

1.20 Goodwood (Handicap) – QUINTILLUS

I was very sweet on this horse at a huge price in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race in which he ran a blinder to finish a one-length third to Perotto.

The return to seven furlongs is a plus, he is improving all the time and might just have a few pounds in hand at these weights on Spirit Of Bermuda, the main danger, as well as Master Zoffany.

2.30 Goodwood (Summer Handicap) – MY FRANKEL

It’s been a relatively quiet season for Sir Michael Stoute thus far, but he can pull off his familiar ‘improving four-year-old’ trick over this mile and six furlongs with My Frankel.

He looked likely to appreciate this trip as far back as last August when winning easily over a mile-and-a-half at Kempton, while since then he has also beaten Taqareer who is also set to run well this weekend (see below).

Last time out he was beaten only 3¼ lengths in the Old Newton Cup after racing wide, he’ll appreciate this ground and can now win a big handicap of his own.

Prince Alex is interesting, while Aaddeey remains a danger in races of this nature.

2.45 Newmarket (Chalice Stakes – Listed Race) – SAYYIDA

I really wish, given the quality of the horses involved and how important they are to the stud book, that these Listed races were more valuable.

The prize money may not be great then, but this is a competitive mile-and-a-half fillies’ event with nothing much to separate Chiasma, Invite, Portfolio, Save A Forest and Yesyes on my book.

The one who looks as though she is just a level above them however is Sayyida. The Godolphin filly was an easy course and distance winner last time out, her second win in a row, and she can now hit triple digits in terms of her official rating.

3.20 Newmarket (Handicap) – TAQAREER

Frankie Dettori’s main reason for staying at Newmarket instead of going to Goodwood, arguably, is this horse of John and Thady Gosden’s.

A progressive type despite one win in 8, he’s been beaten no more than 2¼ lengths this season by Valyrian Steel, My Frankel and Boss Power (also in the Summer Handicap for Stoute).

His current handicap mark underestimates him, he’ll get the best handling from up top and he can prove to be the best of this bunch ahead of Strawberry Rock.

3.55 Newmarket (Handicap) – MODERN NEWS

In this decent seven furlong, three-year-old handicap you can afford to pay little attention to Great News being given the Godolphin first colours.

So often the Saeed bin Suroor runners are afforded that honour, but Charlie Appleby’s Modern News is the one with the most talent for certain.

A Shamardal colt out of a New Approach mare, Modern News was one of even this powerhouse ownership’s better-bred juveniles of last season and he did win a very strong Newmarket maiden race first time out.

He was unsuited by the ground when only 4/1 for the Chesham Stakes won by Battleground, before not liking the track when running second to Twaasol over six furlongs at Epsom, that horse reopposing here.

He’s been off the turf since then, for the last 392 days in fact, but is ready to go now and on a line through various horses he’s raced against should be capable of running to a mark some 7-10lbs better than his official rating.

4.30 Newmarket (Handicap) – RANCHERO 

Despite weight allowances being there for a reason, Ranchero getting a stone from Anythingtoday in this race gives him a huge chance.

Second to Ransom on debut before filling the same spot at Newcastle, the Gosden/Godolphin colt got his head in front last time at Nottingham where he beat Kolisi cosily off level weights, a horse now rated 87.

This chap gets in off only 80 and there is a ton of improvement in him yet meaning defeat here would no doubt be a massive disappointment to all involved.

Friday 23rd & Saturday 24th July 2021: Derby Form to Take Another Massive Boost in King George

On a huge weekend for racing, Ascot hosts both the King George which features the Derby winner, and the International Stakes handicap.

Crowds are back, in fact more than 30,000 are expected at York where Mohaafeth essentially goes on trial for the Juddmonte International, running in the Group 2 York Stakes.

There are two closely-matched Newmarket horses taking part in the Beeswing on Newcastle’s Ladies Day card too but we begin with Ascot on Friday and a fast-improving filly.

Friday 23rd July 2021

3.00 Ascot (Valiant Stakes – Group 3) – LIGHTS ON

I’ve been dying to see Sir Michael Stoute’s Lights On back on fast ground. She was a very easy winner on the soft last time but handles anything and could be on her way to Group 1 level.

Indigo Girl has the quality to mix it with the selection, but she’s half the price and hasn’t been sighted since last October.

3.35 Ascot (Handicap) – GRAND BAZAAR

John and Thady Gosden’s Grand Bazaar has featured here a couple of times, but has been withdrawn due to the ground being too soft.

If the quicker ground remains at Ascot, he can continue the improvement he has shown on every run in these conditions and win his fourth race in 12 starts. Labeebb and Alfred Boucher look best of the remainder.

7.22 Newmarket (Novice Stakes) – THOUSAND OAKS

There are only five runners here, but there are enough mentions for Line Of Descent, Constanta and Auriferous in the media as well as an encouraging betting forecast for us to think we can get a decent price for Thousand Oaks.

The Gosden filly has run third on both of her starts so far, but has been waiting for these conditions and is significantly better than what she’s managed to show so far. Cieren Fallon rides for Qatar Racing.

Saturday 24th July 2021

1.15 Ascot (Pat Eddery Stakes – Listed Race) – NEW SCIENCE

Choosing New Science, an excellent debut winner at Yarmouth, is based purely on his not inconsiderable talent as a juvenile.

We do also have to consider though that had he won at Royal Ascot in the Chesham which was expected by many (ground very much not to his liking), then he’d already have been prepped for a Group 2 somewhere by now and he should have more than enough class to win this. Cachet, Mr McCann and Angel Bleu can fight out the places.

1.50 Ascot (Princess Margaret Stakes – Group 3) – DESERT DREAMER

Having attempted to pre-empt the rates of improvement likely shown by these fillies, along with their various speed ratings, it seems this time that siding with experience could prove fruitful.

Already having her sixth start, Desert Dreamer looks like the one with her solid Listed and Group form making her stand out. Nazanin, Delmona, Nymphadora and System can all run well to varying degrees.

3.00 Ascot (International Stakes – Class 2 Handicap) – MATTHEW FLINDERS

This hugely competitive seven-furlong handicap has attracted 22 runners, so the familiar split on the straight course may occur here with the high numbers very likely favoured.

That leaves Shadwell looking vulnerable despite fielding three runners in the top four or five in the betting. Motakhayyel will have to pull out a Group 1 performance off this weight, while Aldaary and Danyah are potentially badly drawn.

Oisin Murphy has been booked for Matthew Flinders here who is getting quicker as time goes on and now looks the perfect type for this race. Dance Fever and Acquitted also deserve big mentions.

3.35 Ascot (King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes – Group 1) – ADAYAR 

Despite some defections this is a proper Group 1, as the King George always should be. This hasn’t always been the clash of the generations that we want, but with awesome 2020 Oaks winner Love and this year’s good Derby winner Adayar at the head of things, it certainly will be this time.

Beginning with Adayar; he was indeed a high-quality Derby winner for Charlie Appleby and he’s been left alone to recover while third-placed Hurricane Lane has gone on to win two Group 1 races.

It can’t be underestimated how important it is for the industry to at last have another Derby winner score in this race. Despite a lack of three-year-old participants in recent times, history has shown us that when a top-class one shows up, they invariably win.

Adayar has won despite softer ground in the past rather than because of it, he stays very well, has lots of class and is obviously still getting better. This isn’t a race for good mile-and-a-quarter horses who might stay, it’ll be a battle to the line and this fellow possesses the ability and the stamina to get the job done.

Love is a brilliant mare. She’s very similar in ability to Found, also by Galileo, who went 2nd (13/8f), 2nd (9/2), 2nd (4/1) and 2nd (5/2) at Ascot, never pulling out her very best there. Over 1m4f on good or faster ground she ran 9th (18/1), 1st (4/1), 2nd (2/1f) and 3rd (11/4), again never being at her very best. Even more closely related is Magical, again similar in ability and never quite at her best in these conditions.

Love for her part stayed brilliantly in last year’s Oaks and was a brave winner over 1m2f around Ascot at the royal meeting, but she may not quite get to the genuine superstar level that three-time winner Enable did which makes her vulnerable at short odds against a good Derby winner.

Mishriff is very consistent and genuine Group 1 class, but in running to his usual standard he should be third-best here. Wonderful Tonight is a lovely filly heading to the Arc but needs rain, while Lone Eagle has form with Hurricane Lane but is in against real good horses now and may just not cope.

4.30 Newcastle (Handicap – Class 3) – MOSHAAWER

Hasty Sailor is no mug and Brian Ellison (Cormier) loves to win at Newcastle. This is a good race with two well-handicapped horses in it however, meaning it’s a result to keep an eye on for the future.

Second Slip won on Northumberland Plate Day and still has something in hand, but Moshaawer could be different gravy and can be backed as long as he’s offered at a decent price.

The Frankel colt has won his last two easily after finishing third on debut behind the now 95-rated Scope and Derby runner-up Mojo Star. Roger Varian’s runner may be heading to Group races before long, but runs here off a mark of just 93.

Friday 16th & Saturday 17th July 2021: Free Wind Our Aphrodite Goddess

We have a ton of information once again for this weekend. Irish Oaks Day takes place at the Curragh, while the Weatherbys Super Sprint is the biggie in England with Chipotle looking to strike again.

We’ve gone elsewhere looking for value however, with a massive ten selections beginning at Newbury on Friday: 

Friday 16th July 2021

2.45 Newbury (Fillies’ Handicap) – GOLDEN BUGLE

A pretty competitive 1m5f+ fillies’ handicap, one in which we can expect more from Michael Bell’s Horsefly with champion jockey’s title chaser Oisin Murphy on board.

Secret Shadow is no mug and Maytal may well improve, however the one to be on could be Golden Bugle for the very familiar connections of the Gosdens, Golden Horn (sire), Anthony Oppenheimer and Frankie Dettori.

A Doncaster maiden winner last time out, she most likely wants this trip now and previously chased the useful Sayyida home. She looks to be well above her rather anaemic-looking mark of 79 and should have some weight in hand. 

3.20 Newbury (Rose Bowl Stakes – Listed Race) – ORAZIO

A decent Listed contest for the juveniles, one in which as a punter you are tasked with choosing between sheer promise and proven ability.

It’s true that Caturra, Bond Chairman and Bosh have now had some experience and have already achieved good levels of form, however the debut win three weeks ago of Orazio was taking and he could prove to be the best of these.

An easy winner at Windsor, this Caravaggio colt now has Frankie on board for Charlie Hills and he undoubtedly clocked the best debut in this field, so the usual improvement from that to a Class 1 race would see him home.

4.10 Haydock (Conditions Stakes) – MUTASAABEQ

A major fancy for the 2000 Guineas at the start of May, Mutasaabeq hasn’t become a bad horse overnight. After his disappointment in the Jersey Stakes however it seems Charlie Hills wants to kind of start again but that shouldn’t be taken as a negative.

At Ascot he was drawn way out on the wrong side and hated the ground. Before the Guineas, he clocked a great time in similar conditions to this in a small field and it may be that he just runs them ragged here as he did there at Newmarket. Many will be backing Baradar which may help us as regards the price on Mutasaabeq.

4.42 Haydock (Maiden Stakes) – MONHAMMER

We’ve backed Monhammer before with no success to be fair, but he’s one of those big improving types who makes a mug of you when you stop supporting him!

After a bad debut in which nothing went right, he came to himself last time over this course and distance when finishing second and plenty more is expected now. Nine Tails and Marie Antoinette are the two dangers.

6.45 Newmarket (Handicap) – MAGICAL LAND

At the time of writing at least, it seems we are most keen on the outsider of this four-runner field. It is a close betting heat to be fair, with little to chose between Zagato, Dickens and Il Bandito.

Charlie Appleby’s Magical Land however is the standout. Despite now being rated 4lbs lower than his peak, he has improved nicely overall in six career starts. He was gelded before his run at Haydock two weeks ago and may have just needed the run.

Based on normal improvement, and what was expected last time considering he was favourite, he should have enough now to take it to this small field under William Buick.

Saturday 17th July 2021

1.50 Newbury (Steventon Stakes – Listed Race) – DERAB

This is a very competitive affair, at least on paper. Blue Cap may have wanted more rain, Real World may have been flattered by his performance in the Royal Hunt Cup to a degree while Felix and Solid Stone should run to around about their handicap marks.

That leaves a great opportunity for John & Thady Gosden’s Derab who could be a level above. A very easy winner at Newmarket in May, he was tried at Group 1 level last time but hated the going and the style of the race and so can still prove to be too good for Listed level.

2.55 Newmarket (Handicap) – IRISH ADMIRAL

Always looking like a potential Group horse, Irish Admiral has flattered to deceive a little in England so far but hasn’t had the ideal conditions.

He has them now for sure, so while Rifleman (faller) and Stunning Beauty (pulled-up after being trapped in the stalls) have scores to settle and can improve, Irish Admiral really does look the one off a mark of just 95. Finest Sound was next on the list.

3.00 Newbury (Hackwood Stakes – Group 3) – ROYAL CRUSADE

Though King’s Lynn’s form is solid and last year’s winner Tabdeed prepared well at Newcastle last time, we can afford to take a chance on Royal Crusdade at a price in this six-furlong contest.

Always held in high regard by Charlie Appleby, Royal Crusade hasn’t hit the heights yet but he ran well in Dubai back in March, he’s only four years old and he is having only his ninth career run which means we have not seen the best of him yet.

3.30 Newmarket (Aphrodite Stakes – Listed Race) – FREE WIND

Don’t be put off by the official ratings here, as had this been a handicap, I’d be telling you that Free Wind had got away with it off a mark of 92.

She’s way better than that, maybe a stone better, with John Gosden noted for not throwing them into to these Listed and Group races unless they are ready which I think Free Wind is. She can score here, with Abstinence, Golden Pass, Oriental Mystique and Talbeyah all very close.

11.16 Saratoga (Diana Stakes – Grade 1) – SUMMER ROMANCE

Charlie Appleby landed a 1-2 in the Just A Game Stakes at Belmont on Derby Day with Althiqa and Summer Romance, now he’s looking to repeat the trick with the same two fillies in this Grade 1.

There was less than a length between them last time over the mile, Althiqa coming out on top, but with a difference in the stalls, a furlong more to cover and a 4lb weight turnaround this could be Summer Romance’s day with Harvey’s Lil Goil and Lemista also fancied for places.