Friday 28th & Saturday 28th October 2022: Conquest the King at Newmarket

It’s Charlie Hall Chase weekend at Wetherby, with Bravemansgame fancied to win the big one although he is too short a price to do so.

With the jumps season getting into full swing now, Ascot also hosts the Bateaux London Gold Cup, but there are still plenty of betting opportunities on the Flat, especially at headquarters where we are betting across Friday and Saturday.

Friday 28th October 2022

1.30 Newmarket (Novice Stakes) – MAJESTIC PRIDE

This is a field full of mostly newcomers, so strong money for any runner should be noted.

Having handled heavy ground and 6½ furlongs well on debut, Physique is rightly well fancied to go one better, but the seven furlongs of the Rowley Mile is a different proposition to Newbury and that run was only seven days ago.

On breeding Burdett Road may fancy this first time up, but even more likely is Charlie Appleby’s Majestic Pride who can be backed to small stakes if there is encouragement and if a price of more than 3/1 holds.

He should relish this test and his trainer so consistently sends these types out to perform to a good level on debut. With William Buick in Australia, James Doyle is left to take over.

2.40 Newmarket (Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes – Listed Race) – MATILDA PICOTTE

At this stage of their respective careers, it’s impossible to know exactly what level these two-year-old fillies can reach before the end of the year.

Some don’t have form on rain-softened ground though, some don’t look comfortable on it and some aren’t bred for it either.

None of those things are true of the Irish-trained Matilda Picotte who for me has the best form and is fine in the conditions so is a sound bet to take this race, perhaps ahead of Diamond Vega.

3.35 Saint-Cloud (Prix Solitude – Listed Race) – GOLDEN LYRA

William Haggas is sending one horse over to France on Friday and in fact his Golden Lyra could be very good value to pinch the win.

Tres Queen, Daisy Maisy and Queen Trezy have all shown ability, but only to the level Golden Lyra showed on only her second run and seasonal debut at Newbury back in June. She was favourite for the Listed race won by Haskoy in August, and has been no doubt sent here to get the softer ground she craves. 

There is no available betting at the time of writing, though one forecast has her as a 9/2 shot while on another she is 10/1. I expect her to be shorter than that come the off.

3.50 Newmarket (Handicap) – ALLMANKIND

Running on the Flat for the first time since 2019 is the now Dan Skelton-trained Allmankind.

Based on all the information available, most notably how he has improved jumping, we can expect him to be at least 6lbs, maybe many more, ahead of the handicap mark of 86 he has been dropped to on the level. In fact, he reached 90 when running in the Dee Stakes for Michael Bell.

He will be staying on when others are running out of puff in this two-mile contest, while that potential for being well ahead of his mark is not something the others can boast, including second choice Novel Legend.

Saturday 29th October 2022

2.48 Newmarket (Nursery Handicap) – DARTMAN

In this nine-furlong nursery there are a number of seemingly reliable indicators which show is that Forceful Speed, Sir Laurance Graff, Shahbaz, Orchestra and Dawn Vega may be very close at the weights. The one who may yet prove to be the standout however is Dartman.

Brian Meehan’s runner was gelded before his debut and just maybe took his time to get going. After a pretty average debut, he put up a very reasonable performance when third behind Classic over ton the July Course on soft ground back in August.

That run would have earned him a mark in the early 80’s and he will have improved some since then. He gets in here off only 77 having been well beaten on the all-weather last, a run easy to forgive. Back on turf, he could prove to be well handicapped.

3.00 Wetherby (West Yorkshire Hurdle – Grade 2) – PROSCHEMA

Proschema was behind Indefatigable in this race last year but has a big weight turnaround now, while he also has age on his side in that battle.

He also had every chance of beating favourite Sporting John at Cheltenham last season before falling. He’s fit, improving and really should prove to be the best of this bunch.

3.23 Newmarket (Handicap) – KING OF CONQUEST

Godolphin’s six-year-old Ghaly (Saeed bin Suroor) may still be well handicapped, while back on softer ground a good run can be expected from Lawful Command.

The one who may, just may, have tons in hand however is Godolphin’s other runner, the Charlie Appleby-trained King Of Conquest.

After making a very nice debut last August he was sent off favourite to beat the likes of Zechariah and Westover. He wasn’t at his best in the end, finishing third, while things also went wrong in Dubai but he has now been gelded and waited with.

He’s ready to go again and no doubt a minimum target for him will be to reach triple figures, which he’s very capable of, so coming in off 88 is more than a little tempting.

3.58 Newmarket (Montrose Fillies’ Stakes – Listed Race) – DREAM OF LOVE

This could be another winner for the powerful Charlie Appleby yard courtesy of their Shamardal/Galileo cross Dream Of Love.

She made a very pleasing debut when winning here three weeks ago over seven furlongs, this extra 220 yards looking like being right up her street.

She looked a little green that day yet got the job done against some pretty decent yardsticks, reaching a level just a couple of pounds below Dermot Weld’s Keep In Touch and Clive Cox’s Conservationist with clearly more to come.

Friday 21st & Saturday 22nd October 2022: Gosden Colt to be Stoic in Futurity

Cheltenham begins its season with the Showcase Meeting on Friday, while Aintree hosts the Old Roan Chase on Sunday. There is still plenty of business to do on the Flat however on what is another Group 1 weekend.

The Vertem Futurity is the big race of the weekend, while it seems that John and Thady Gosden could be in for a very profitable time too.

Friday 21st October 2022

2.35 Newbury (Fillies’ Handicap) – KING’S JOY 

Any money for hat-trick seekers Misty Dancer and Miss Down Under is understandable, however the strongest of this bunch may well be the Gosdens’ King’s Joy.

The Kingman filly has been getting there slowly but surely, showing up well behind Grande Dame earlier in the season as well as at Ascot in the summer, but she reached a new level last time when behind Al Husn at Newmarket.

The ground should be fine for her and she may outclass Picual and the aforementioned last-time-out winners.

3.10 Newbury (Handicap) – FRANTASTIC

Could there be a quick Gosden, Dettori, Oppenheimer, topweight handicap double? I reckon there just might.

Frantastic looked very decent when winning at Newcastle last back end, handling the Tapeta very well and scooting away close home.

He was sent to the Classic Trial in the spring and in August over 1m2f at Newbury, he beat subsequent hurdle winner Admiralty House and the now 84-rated winner Cave Diver.

This 1m5½f trip should be ideal for Cracksman’s full brother and he may be able to stretch away from Tathbeet and Juan Bermudez.

4.05 Doncaster (Handicap) – ALMUHIT

An interesting race over the St Leger trip of 1m6½f, one in which the most likely winners are David Simcock’s four-year-old Traila and theGosdens’ Almuhit.

Their form is very similar and they are rated only 1lb apart, however Almuhit has a year on his rival and was slowly away last time on his first run after a gelding operation. He’ll be much straighter this time no doubt and has plenty more improvement to come over the trip.

4.38 Doncaster (Handicap) – FIRST OFFICER

Last October, a fine maiden at Newmarket was won by Al Mubhir, a winner for last Friday’s column. Beaten only 2¼ lengths that day on debut after a slow start was First Officer who was unfortunately campaigned almost exclusively on fast ground since.

Al Mubhir needed the rain last week and First Officer needed it when bolting up last time out on his first start for Jane Chapple-Hyam.

On private ratings, I made First Officer a 92 horse, while Al Mubhir is now officially rated 97. Either way, it seems First Officer’s current mark of 87 still underestimates his talents greatly and the son of Galileo should enjoy himself in this race.

Saturday 22nd October 2022

1.33 Saint-Cloud (Criterium de Saint-Cloud – Group 1) – ARREST 

Juddmonte are very keen on Arrest, as are John and Thady Gosden, and while the Vertem Futurity was under consideration for him this race is more winnable and they have another colt for the Doncaster race.

Arrest is a big baby and will have improved plenty from his last race, he has strong form and looks as though these conditions will be fine form him as the Frankel’s tend to stay very well.

1.50 Newbury (Horris Hill Stakes – Group 3) – STRIKING STAR

Charlie Appleby’s Striking Star won his maiden at Sandown last month very much despite the soft ground and not because of it. He was blocked in his run that day too and should have been a much more impressive winner visually.

Having been off for over five weeks he will have improved markedly as the yard’s juveniles do, and now the Dubawi/Shamardal cross can show his class and perhaps put himself in the Classic frame for next spring.

Ancestral Land, Grey’s Monument, Lord Of Biscay and Knight may all be very useful.

2.30 Doncaster (Handicap) – ISRAR

It was commented on these pages that the only horse who fit the bill of being that potential Group horse in the London Gold Cup back in May, the type that usually wins the race, was Israr.

He duly did win, and while it hasn’t gone exactly to plan for the John and Thady Gosden runner since, he remains a horse of some promise at this mile-and-a-half trip and he is taken to prove how well handicapped he truly is for the end of the season.

In behind there is more to come from Wandering Rocks no doubt, while Moktasaab remains solid as an each-way proposition.

3.35 Doncaster (Vertem Futurity – Group 1) – EPICTETUS

This could be yet another big race victory on what has turned out to be an important weekend for the Gosden yard.

This year, the Gosdens have had to watch on as Charlie Appleby and William Haggas have truly taken over in the training ranks, while their very public spat with Frankie Dettori was also a low point. Their Epictetus though is a proper Group 1 type and can take this.

On debut the Kingman colt beat Flying Honours by 4½ lengths and he is now rated 110. We knew he’d be a top challenger in the Autumn Stakes but plumped for Silver Knott, which was the correct call just about, and that horse can be another real top-notcher. He’s now rated 115 and is off to the Breeders’ Cup.

That’s the level Epictetus can now achieve, if not more, and his yard must be full of confidence. He does have Auguste Rodin to beat who is second-favourite for the 2000 Guineas and the Derby, but beat him he can.

4.15 Newbury (Handicap) – NATURAL WORLD

While Magisterial could yet be up to much better things and we know the quality of the likes of Mujtaba, Natural World remains of major interest.

Back in the spring he beat stablemate Ottoman Fleet and Lion on debut, two horses now rated 109. He was sent straight to the Derby Trial at Lingfield after that but most likely wants this softer ground and has needed time to truly come to himself. He may now be well handicapped and overpriced.

Friday 7th & Saturday 8th October 2022: Naval to Power to Dewhurst Success

You might want to call this the start of the jumps season proper, Chepstow hosting some excellent National Hunt events over the weekend.

We are far from done with the Flat however, with Newmarket’s Future Champions Weekend taking precedence here.

We may be about to see a substandard Fillies’ Mile, at least in behind Commissioning who could be the real deal, while Flying Honours should be too good in the Zetland but is not a backable price.

Friday 7th October 2022

1.50 Newmarket (Cornwallis Stakes – Group 3) – CRISPY CAT

Clearpoint can be forgiven his latest run, while there could be a major return to form for the filly Maylandsea at a nice price.

Keith Dalgleish’s Prince Of Pillo is a strong favourite after his demolition job at Ayr, but going up the Rowley Mile hill it would be no surprise to see unlucky Norfolk Stakes third Crispy Cat come out on top.

The son of Ardad should perhaps have won that day and he’s had very valid excuses in three runs since. His experience could play a big part in this race and the excellent Ryan Moore takes the ride.

4.10 Newmarket (Old Rowley Cup – Heritage Handicap) – FIRST RULER 

Based on current rate of progression Simply Sondheim, who is on an incredible seven-timer, can run well but a lot depends on how he handles faster ground.

Educator will have been put right by his second last week for the King and, based on what he achieved in the spring ahead of the likes of London Gold Cup winner Israr, he should be right in the mix now. Stablemate La Yakel can go well again, but on this ground may have it to do against old rival First Ruler.

First Ruler is the clear standout of Charlie Appleby’s four with Wild Crusade, Al Nafir and Cosmic Desert all admittedly solid, and on faster ground can continue his progress.

5.50 Newmarket (Pride Stakes – Group 3) – CREATIVE FLAIR

Godolphin’s Creative Flair runs her last race in the one and a quarter-mile Pride Stakes. Not only will her team have prepared her a send-off to remember, but this has been her long-term target all year anyway.

Trainer Charlie Appleby said she was basically “punch drunk” having had to chase a suicidal early pace on firm ground in America back in July. She’s much better than that.

On balance, there may not be that much between Ville De Grace and three-year-olds Peripatetic and Shaara who can all challenge for places.

10.16 Keeneland (Alcibiades Stakes – Grade 1) – RAGING SEA

The excellent Chad Brown scratched his once-raced filly Raging Sea from her previous Grade 1 appointment and rerouted her here.

A sloppy, quick track was not thought to be ideal but going over an extended mile at Keeneland looks ideal for the ‘Win and You’re In’ race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on November 4. This is only her second run, but she’s well drawn, has lots of talent and may stay on best of all.

Saturday 8th October 2022

2.25 Newmarket (Autumn Stakes – Group 3) – SILVER KNOTT

A most fascinating juvenile race and a high class one for sure. Exoplanet could be a big improver as a debut winner for Roger Varian while Holloway Boy has experience at a good level.

The Gosdens’ Epictetus was impressive when winning his sole race to date, though I don’t know why he has been off since then. He is the obvious danger, but he may not be good enough to beat the talented improving Silver Knott.

The easy Solario winner got stuck in the mud when losing out at Doncaster last time, but has otherwise been exemplary and can add this race to his CV before perhaps heading to the Breeders’ Cup.

3.00 Newmarket (Dewhurst Stakes – Group 1) – NAVAL POWER

Ante-post favourite Sakheer had to pull out after scoping dirty on Friday morning but while I love the horse, for what it’s worth I don’t think he’d have won it over seven furlongs.

Juddmonte have a strong hand here with Chaldean and especially Nostrum who now assumes favouritism.

Incredibly, Sir Michael Stoute hasn’t won the Dewhurst since 1986 but Nostrum gives him a terrific chance now after a most taking debut win, as well as his classy yet hard-fought Tattersalls Stakes win over this track and trip.

In Naval Power however, Godolphin and Charlie Appleby may have yet another Dewhurst star. Their 2019 and 2021 winners Pinatubo and Native Trail were obvious two-year-old types, whereas this horse according to the trainer has always looked like a three-year-old.

Being unbeaten so far in four has felt like a bonus to his team and he has never been asked for too much. Apparently, he is ready to put it all together now and a usually circumspect and modest Appleby reckons that nothing will get him off the bridle easily.

He can emulate his sire Teofilo at this stage, but will hopefully go on to have a fine Classic career too. As Appleby says; he will not be wanting for stamina when they hit the rising ground.

4.25 York (Handicap) – WHITEHAVEN

We went for Hughie Morrison’s Whitehaven last week, though he was taken out before racing began. He’s back this week over two miles at a very fair track in York, one that should see the four-year-old return to his best which is something he’s been doing gradually since the summer.

Atacama Desert is an obvious danger, improving all the time, while the likes of Duke Of Verona, Praiano, Carrigillihy and It’s Good To Laugh will all have backers.

5.20 Newmarket (Darley Stakes – Group 3) – ROYAL FLEET

Royal Fleet won ever so easily last time and is still a work in progress. His form to date entitles him to go close anyway, but unlike a number of others in this race we expect him to now run a new career best.

His team already have an eye on a big-money race in Bahrain for him, one for which this event gives him automatic entry so he will be prepped to perfection to get the job done.

Alflaila is classy but may lack the turn of foot Royal Fleet has, while Cadillac, Ottoman Fleet and Finest Sound can all show up well.

10.14 Keeneland (Breeders’ Futurity – Grade 1) – LOGGINS 

This top-notch two-year-old race has been very good in recent times, producing such horses as Essential Quality. The added dimension this year is that, while being a ‘Win and You’re In’ for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, it is also run over the very same course and distance.

This year’s renewal is a belter with 16 lining up. Forte is at the top of the market while Lost Ark, Carmel Road and Newgate are all to be watched, but the standout for me is the once-raced Loggins.

Brax Cox’s colt won on debut by a yawning 8½ lengths at Churchill Downs over six and a half furlongs. He is by Ghostzapper, a proper Grade I stallion whose progeny always do better as they get older, he’s well drawn and he looks the potential class in the race.

Friday 30th September, Saturday 1st & Sunday 2nd October 2022: Mostah Not a Daft Bet

After some fantastic success last week, particularly on Friday, we’re back with another very busy few betting days which is to be expected given that it’s Arc weekend in Paris.

There are some interesting novices running at Newmarket so you should keep an eye on those, but these are the horses providing us with some good wagering value across Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Friday 30th September 2022

2.35 Ascot (Handicap) – WHITEHAVEN

Hughie Morrison is brilliant with stayers and his Whitehaven is ideal for this two-mile handicap.

The 83-rated five-year-old is getting back to his best now, a best that would see him be too strong for this field. Morrison has also booked champion-elect William Buick, a smart move.

3.45 Ascot (Noel Murless Stakes – Listed Race) – SECRET STATE

Initially targeted at the St Leger, rock solid 1m4f performer Secret State is still getting better and should improve further for running over the Leger trip. Giavellotto and El Habeeb have done well in the Classics, while Lionel may have improved for a change of scenery having switched to the Gosdens.

4.20 Ascot (Handicap) – SILENT SPEECH

A rare three-year-old-only sprint for this time of year. Silent Speech was looking like turning into a classy type before having to go to equine hospital earlier in the year in Dubai.

His lay-off is a good thing, and Charlie Appleby doesn’t bring them back until they are ready. He can prove to be very well handicapped now and can run up the stands side rail.

4.55 Ascot (Classified Stakes) – YANTARNI

Yantarni really should have won last week at Newmarket, his defeat being a big surprise. He should do much better here and can turn over the likes of Bullace, Rhythm N Rock and Persian Royal.

Saturday 1st October 2022

1.31 Newmarket (Fillies’ Handicap) – CRYSTAL ESTRELLA

Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Estrella was improving rapidly when last seen. She can be even better now, but even on past form on a line through others such as Hexameter, who runs later on the card, she could be very well in here against Al Husn and I’ll Be There.

2.25 Ascot (Cumberland Lodge Stakes – Group 3) – HIGH DEFINITION

It feels like we’ve known former Derby candidate High Definition forever. He’s had excuses lately and wouldn’t be sent alone to Ascot by Aidan O’Brien unless he feels his time has come again.

He has shown Group 1 form this season and it’s easy to forget he’s just a four-year-old colt. He is certainly not finished.

2.42 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes – Group 1) – LAUREL 

This is a top-quality race, no doubt.

Saffron Beach is brilliant. She’s capable of more than what I’ve rated her, but she’s had some tough races including on soft ground three weeks ago and I’m willing to take her on.

Homeless Songs looks the best of these based one outstanding Irish 1000 Guineas performance, but that run is very different to her other five outings and so I still don’t know whether to take it literally.

Laurel is more interesting. She was cruising while waiting for a gap on her debut and slammed the opposition. She could have achieved a mark of around 110 on which would have been extraordinary.

She did barely a piece of work last time. Natural progression takes her to the sort of level I expect Saffron Beach and Homeless Songs to be at in a race she has been supplemented for.

3.25 ParisLongchamp (Prix du Cadran – Group 1) – QUICKTHORN

Kyprios is of course very good and he’s consistent, but he’s not improving in lumps so we basically know where we stand with him.

Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn wasn’t far behind that level as far back as April and has kept getting better all year. He utterly demolished his Lonsdale Cup field in August, beating among others Coltrane by 14 lengths who came out next time and won the Doncaster Cup.

He handles the ground, will love the trip and has a great chance.

3.36 Ascot (Challenge Cup – Heritage Handicap) – SILENT FILM

I’ve punted Silent Film a couple of times based on two excellent runs in the Middle East. He is now most certainly getting to his best form, in fact I had a nibble on him last time at 40/1 when he very nearly beat Fresh over course and distance.

He can beat that horse now, a runner who is of course favourite for this very event.

4.00 ParisLongchamp (Prix Dollar – Group 2) – ANMAAT

Anmaat is quality. There is plenty about him, especially in his pedigree, to suggest that the runaway Rose of Lancaster winner will handle soft ground. I thought in fact he’d be in a Group 1 by now.

West Wind Blows can come on again, while Addeybb has been a star who eventually gets his ground but is understandably regressing now at eight years old.

Sunday 2nd October 2022

3.05 ParisLongchamp (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – Group 1) – MOSTAHDAF 

It’s been said that this isn’t the strongest Arc of recent times, and that’s probably true in as much as there aren’t two or three obvious superstars coming together. It is still mightily competitive; the field being made up of crack Group 1 types.

There’s €5m up for grabs here and some strange decisions have been made. Watering the track knowing fine well there was rain hitting a track that sits over the River Seine sounds nuts. Suddenly dropping Verry Elleegant to a strangely low rating, basically ruling her out, seems silly too. Who knows the reasons.

I’m not at all as concerned about the draw in this race as some are. Check variously rated horses at different odds from low, middle and high stalls in recent times and you’ll see why.

With all that said, I’m going for the type of bet that either makes you look silly or a handicapping genius. At around 50/1, I can afford to take a chance anyway.

The horse in question is John & Thady Gosden’s Mostahdaf. Ever since he won on debut at Newcastle, he looked a potential star. He’s definitely top class, I’ve thought that for a long time, and his performance when slamming Dubai Honour in the September Stakes last time has gone under the radar.

There’s plenty more to come form him, he will handle this ground and the mile and a half is perfect. He is way overpriced.

Of the proven Group 1 types, last year’s winner Torquator Tasso is probably the strongest in the likely conditions, while Alpinista is rock solid and has handled softer ground well before.

The Irish Champion Stakes form concerning favourite Luxembourg, Onesto and Vadeni is solid, but that was a hard race for all three and it makes them vulnerable. Aidan O’Brien has also expressed his concerns regarding the ground for Luxembourg.

Westover is classy and has excellent form, but I’m unsure of the ground for him too. The owners have talked of their keeping him fresh as the ‘Workforce method’ but despite being good, he is no Workforce.

Japanese runner Titleholder may just struggle on the surface you would think.

Friday 23rd & Saturday 24th September 2022: Magic to Cause Major Middle Park Mischief

Thursday’s action has truly whetted the appetite for the remainder of Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire meeting, with Friday and Saturday providing some stunning action.

The Rowley Mile is our main focus on a very busy betting weekend, with the big handicap and the Royal Lodge being admittedly fascinating watching briefs only.

Friday 23rd September 2022 

1.50 Newmarket (Rosemary Stakes – Listed Race) – ZANBAQ

The trainers, jockeys and colours in this one-mile Listed contest are all very familiar, but in truth this isn’t the strongest race of its type.

Juddmonte pair Whitebeam and Crenelle are hard to separate, while Crystal Caprice and the overpriced Thundershower join them in a similar quality bracket.

The standout is Zanbaq for Roger Varian and Shadwell. She was fancied for the Guineas at one point, put in a terrific handicap run at Royal Ascot and has everything required to outpace and/or outclass this field.

2.05 Haydock (Handicap) – VINTAGE CHOICE 

Skipping up to Haydock for a moment, we have a chance to back what just might be a handicap blot.

This is a wide-open race on the betting book, but one of Croupier, Foden or Moon Watch it seems will have to take a big jump forward to stand out. Vintage Choice however has already shown enough for me and only needs natural improvement from his second at Wolverhampton in April.

He was favourite here when last seen but was beaten after being gelded. Before that she showed good form and good speed on the Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton which may yet prove to be important in the context of this race.

William Haggas sends only this horse to Haydock and jockey Adam Farragher is on hand for a couple of rides. He hasn’t been riding any winners in the last couple of weeks, but he has five from 40 this year and still claims a handy 5lbs.

2.25 Newmarket (Princess Royal Stakes – Group 3) – ETERNAL PEARL 

A good race over the mile and a half. Sea Silk Road beat Eternal Pearl earlier in the year and now gets 3lbs, making her the clear favourite. It was a narrow win however and she had slightly more experience than her then very immature rival.

Eternal Pearl has got her head right now and was rather impressive last time in France. She will appreciate the quicker ground and can use her turn of foot to put this race to bed.

3.00 Newmarket (Rockfel Stakes – Group 2) – COMMISSIONING 

The Rockfel is getting a bit of stick for not being a strong Group 2, but the Gosdens’ Commissioning is a classy once-raced Kingman filly who could be Group 1 class. She may return in two weeks for the Fillies’ Mile.

Olivia Maralda, Rage Of Bamby, Rich, Eximius and Dance In The Grass can all make a mark.

3.35 Newmarket (Joel Stakes – Group 2) – POTAPOVA 

The Joel is always a strong race. Tempus is classy but faces different conditions, Pogo can run similarly to last year’s Joel but in a better renewal, while Oscula is admirable but this may be a step too far.

I’ve always been a fan of Mutasaabeq and see him as a 115 horse, but an on-song Potapova getting 3lbs could be too good. She hasn’t always been consistent, but she’s shown numerous times she could be top class and is still improving.

4.45 Newmarket (Godolphin Stakes – Listed Race) – SISKANY 

A competitive Listed race. Passion And Glory is consistent, Candleford is dangerous if returning to his strong handicap form and Without A Fight would have a good chance against all bar the selection if it weren’t for his penalty.

Siskany could just be different class. He was back from a long break when a beaten favourite last weekend, but he badly needed that and it’s more than a little interesting that Charlie Appleby runs him again so quickly.

6.15 Newcastle (Maiden Stakes) – STAND STRONG 

There’s been lots of talk in racing about poor prize money and bad scheduling. This race should be so much better and I’m not sure where the blame lies after only seven were declared for this unusually valuable £50,000 maiden.

Trainers may get the blame again for not going for the money they’ve been asking for, but this race being scheduled during the Cambridgeshire meeting is daft as there are more important things happening in the back yards of Haggas, Gosden, Appleby and the likes. Saeed bin Suroor is sharp though and may have the winner.

I’m backing the progeny of Cracksman and this is one of them. They tend to improve plenty from their first run and Stand Strong was best of the newcomers when third at Salisbury in July.

He was around 15lbs behind Marbaan that day, the subsequent Group 2 winner rated 109. Poetic Union was a further 10lbs worse and is now rated 91 having contested two Group 3’s. That’s strong form, he’ll get better and he will appreciate Newcastle’s stiff mile.

Saturday 24th September 2022

2.25 Newmarket (Cheveley Park Stakes – Group 1) – TRILLIUM 

Swingalong was excellent at York but needs to go on again, while No Nay Never’s daughter Meditate is the one for money for the Ballydoyle operation.

The other No Nay Never, Trillium for Richard Hannon, may be the one to be on though. She has tip-top form and may have been even better when beating Nunthorpe second The Platinum Queen last time but for soft ground. She may be the best of this bunch.

3.00 Newmarket (Middle Park Stakes – Group 1) – MISCHIEF MAGIC

The other six-furlong Group 1 for juveniles is the Middle Park and it could provide yet another top-level success for Charlie Appleby.

His Mischief Magic has been underestimated for me, with the focus going on Marshman and Blackbeard. They are both good, but our horse is improving fast and looks well capable of improving past this bunch. Appleby knows where he stands with Marshman too on a line through Noble Style.

Persian Force is solid and Zoology is also interesting in his second start.

5.25 Newmarket (Handicap) – NOBLE DYNASTY 

Noble Dynasty is four, a heavy improver, and will love coming down to seven furlongs on the Rowley Mile. He is the handicap pick for certain, with good runs perhaps coming from Alrehb, The Attorney and Zainalarab.

5.40 Chester (Fillies’ Handicap) – QABILAH

Qabilah is a winner but she has always promised more. She will be very fit now having had to chase Shaara last time who has since followed up in good company, with the selection being much better than a 77 filly. 

Friday 16th & Saturday 17th September 2022: Have a Sense of Power at Newmarket

There are some potentially important juvenile races to kick off Friday at Newbury, while there are a couple of Listed events and the Bronze Cup at Ayr.

On Saturday we witness Ayr Gold Cup day and there are some good races to back it up, while Newmarket, Newbury and North America back up that action admirably.

Friday 16th September 2022

2.53 Newbury (Nursery Handicap) – THE PARENT

Richard Hannon and Ryan Moore team up with The Parent, a horse who went from second favourite to favourite in the time I wrote this piece!

He is solid in most areas, won last time in spite of the soft ground rather than because of it, has form with Highbank and Stormbuster (who both run in the next), as well as with One Nation and Sir Laurence Graff across three different races, all of which reads well.

He could prove to be the best of this bunch, with market rival Surely Not’s prowess perhaps exaggerated by an unlucky defeat last time.

4.03 Newbury (Dubai Duty Free Cup – Listed Race) – SACRED

This is high class for a Listed race, a knock-on effect you’d say of some racing being lost last weekend.

Sacred was ready to go last week, she is the best of this bunch and gets 5lbs as opposed to Jumby who gives away seven.

Saleymm is likely to have improved past old rival Shine So Bright and Tacarib Bay would be good enough for an ordinary renewal if not for this one, but Sacred ticks the most boxes.

Saturday 17th September 2022

1.40 Newbury (Legacy Cup Stakes – Group 3) – KEMARI 

This is no longer the Arc Trial, but given the relative weakness of the big one at Longchamp this year a very good winner of this may yet put their hat into the ring.

Godolphin have three here, two of them Charlie Appleby’s. It’s hard to know the first choice, with Buick away in North America and James Doyle out.

The odds suggest Siskany is their main hope, however Kemari has in my opinion achieved more despite official ratings and he has the speed to cope with this 1m3f trip. He’s also closer to proper race fitness.

2.41 Newmarket (Handicap) – SENSE OF POWER

There are much bigger and better things happening in the racing world than this seven-furlong Class 4 handicap, however on my private ratings Sense Of Power comes out well clear, more so than any other selection.

He has form with the right types, has been gelded, and would be a short price if it weren’t for his progression stalling on the all-weather last time.

Back on turf he can run to a mark of around 95-100 under Harry Davies, making his official rating of 85 look daft.

2.50 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes – Group 2) – SAKHEER

The Mill Reef was in danger of looking like a very poor affair and while we’ve seen deeper renewals, Roger Varian’s Sakheer does at least look quality and he can win it.

Sakheer is around 7/1 for next week’s Group 1 Middle Park Stakes and, while I’m not sure a double will be attempted, he definitely has the speed and class to take this for the St Leger winning connections.

3.25 Newbury (Handicap) – OTTOMAN FLEET 

Similar to the Legacy Cup, Charlie Appleby’s two may have been priced up all wrong and again it’s the outsider of the pair I like.

Warren Point is very much on the up and isn’t a surprising favourite, however he is of a similar ability to stablemate Ottoman Fleet who has had one race fewer and who could improve past him. To add to that, he’s 3lbs lower in the handicap as well.

Their form ties in with Special Envoy who is a danger, along with Hamaki.

3.40 Ayr (Ayr Gold Cup – Heritage Handicap) – KHANJAR

We’ve seen plenty of grand old sprinters double-up in big races and last year’s Ayr Gold Cup winner Bielsa still rates highly on my book.

I can’t say he’s betting better though, with similar comments applying to the likes of Commanche Falls, Escobar and Gulliver, so they are all vulnerable to the improving three-year-old Khanjar who can prove to be the best handicapped horse in the race for William Haggas.

9.22 Woodbine (Summer Stakes – Grade 1) – MYSTERIOUS NIGHT

Albahr won this $500,000 race last year for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin and the team may well win it again.

The winner won his place in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf but was withdrawn at the start, though the team won it anyway with Modern Games, and now Mysterious Night can book his place in the gates at Keeneland on November 4. 

There is little to choose between Appraise, Philip My Dear and Stayhonor Goodside in behind.

10.35 Woodbine (Woodbine Mile – Grade 1) – MODERN GAMES

The $1million Woodbine Mile is a great opportunity for Breeders’ Cup winner, French Guineas winner and Sussex runner-up Modern Games to score under Will Buick.

He will love the fast conditions here, is genuinely top class, and is looking to get into the Breeders’ Cup Mile in November.

Ivar is the big danger, while Finest Sound may go well at a price.

10.45 Belmont at the Big A (Jockey Club Derby – Grade 3) – NATIONS PRIDE

No sooner will the Woodbine Mile be over, the Jockey Club Invitational starts.

To avoid confusion; there is work being done at Belmont and so this race is run at Aqueduct as ‘Belmont at the Big A’.

A $1million event, Yibir won this race last year en route to the scoring in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. For the same connections, Nations Pride is looking to do the same in a race that was ungraded last year, now carries Grade 3 status, and is on its way to becoming a Grade 1.

I’ve no idea of prices at the time of writing, however it’s 1-1 now between Nations Pride and Classic Causeway and I’m hoping that keeps the betting competitive. On his first American jaunt this horse got a bad ride from Frankie Dettori and a much better one next time in victory by William Buick.

As long as Frankie has learned something, he should beat his old foe for the second time.

Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th September 2022: Enter the Dragon in Flying Five

After the awful news of the Queen’s passing filtered through on Thursday evening, the decision was taken to cancel racing in Britain on Friday and Saturday.

Many within the sport as well as the vast majority of punters shared the view that, at least from the outside looking in, we think the Queen would have wanted her favourite sport to continue.

Sunday then brings a quick regathering, Doncaster putting on a nine-race card which includes the best of the action due on Friday and Saturday, including the last Classic of the season, the St Leger.

We also still get to see the Irish Champion Stakes, Flying Childers, Doncaster Cup, Champagne Stakes and Arc Trials Day over in France, though we have no bet in these races. Here’s our revised weekend betting line-up:

Saturday 10th September 2022 

1.30 Leopardstown (Ingabelle Stakes – Listed Race) – ZARINSK

With more rain having fallen at Leopardstown turning the going soft, I think there is more of a chance that a hopefully more mature Zarinsk can win for the first time since her debut in May.

Ger Lyons’ Juddmonte filly is the most experienced of the leading lights and, but for stumbling badly and missing starts, could have already climbed through the levels and been racing in Group 1’s by now.

She hasn’t run for 51 days and should have been worked on, meaning she can make her experience count against Easy, Kayhana and Library. Colin Keane rides.

4.55 Leopardstown (Matron Stakes – Group 1) – LIGHTS ON (each-way) 

This is a very high-quality fillies’ Group 1 over the mile.

With the rain having hit, Sir Michael Stoute’s Lights On could relish the conditions at Leopardstown and put in one of her fleeting big-hitting performances. In fact, she’s capable of better than what we’ve seen so far.

Though improvement is expected, we can’t forget that she started this season by beating Mutasaabeq and Alcohol Free on unsuitable ground before being sent to the Queen Anne.

She didn’t perform at Ascot, but she could easily have gone for the Group 2 fillies’ race instead which shows what the team think about her.

She has Christophe Soumillon on board for this race which could be a great move, and while she may or may not cause a shock up against Homeless Songs and Saffron Beach, I reckon she’s better in the conditions than Tenebrism and so at around 25/1 she’s worth an each-way bet for sure.

Sunday 11th September 2022

2.10 Doncaster (Portland Handicap) – DUSKY LORD 

The Portland is always a fascinating race – a unique 5½-furlong sprint which can be won from more or less anywhere across the track.

Burning Cash was of interest along with Lord Riddiford, but at huge odds Roger Varian’s four-year-old Dusky Lord is the one backed to scoot up the stands rail and claim the prize.

2.25 Curragh (Flying Five Stakes – Group 1) – DRAGON SYMBOL 

Dragon Symbol seems to have been around forever. We must remember of course that he hasn’t, and horses like him improve for time and not just for racing. Despite his vast experience then he is still not at his best but will be soon.

Dragon Symbol warmed up for the Nunthorpe Stakes with an easy soft-ground win at Hamilton and I expected him to go quite close.

As it turns out, he was out the back early on and had to fight his way into the race. He stayed on very well into fifth place and did well in the circumstances.

Highfield Princess (1st), Platinum Queen (2nd) and Khaadem (4th) were all prominent and were suited by how the race was run. Emaraaty Ana had to come from a bad place and has subsequently run a stormer in the Sprint Cup, Dragon Symbol hopefully being the next to prove that the Nunthorpe wasn’t run to suit.

Highfield Princess is excellent but arguably not as good on this ground, while Flotus is capable of more. Romantic Proposal, Mooniesta and Ladies Church can all go well, but the one most likely to show a turn of foot on slower ground is the Varian horse who gets the nod.

3.20 Doncaster (Park Stakes – Group 2) – SACRED

We really need a Group 1 race in this country over seven furlongs, this being one of many Group 2’s to attract a strong field.

The Park Stakes is high quality, close and competitive at first glance, but Sacred is getting to her best again and her turn of foot could be decisive.

Garrus can handle the trip and has recent form behind Highfield Princess and Minzaal, while Al Suhail has been there and done that at this level. Double Or Bubble and Kinross are also not far down the list.

3.55 Doncaster (St Leger – Group 1) – NEW LONDON

In the final Classic of the season the team of Godolphin, Charlie Appleby and William Buick may be set to repeat their success of twelve months ago with Hurricane Lane, this time via their New London.

It’s been a strange week for Appleby. Having lost 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus, he saw 2021 Derby winner Adayar return to the track in style on Thursday and now he may win another Classic.

New London was initially on the Derby trail himself earlier in the season and he is strong in so many areas. If this had been a better Leger then I’d be worried, but if New London’s price creeps above even-money he could be worth a bet.

In behind, the main challengers are Eldar Eldarov who won at Royal Ascot and will improve plenty, as well as Hoo Ya Mal who was second in the Derby. The filly Haskoy, tipped on this column, was a good winner at York last time and has been supplemented by Juddmonte – she is the other realistic danger.