Ebor Festival Day Four: Flames to burn up on the Knavesmire

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Following our 9-1 winner yesterday, Tippin' Jimmy returns with his verdict on Saturday's action at York.

York

1:55 - Mustashry (3/1) , Make Time (13/2) ew

Stepping up from handicap company to Group Three is never an easy thing to do, but I do think this rapidly improving Sir Michael Stoute horse will take it in his stride. He carried top weight to glory at Chelmsford and was visually very impressive winning on the all-weather. This is much harder, but he will like the ground, is continually getting better and can be a big danger.

David Menuisier's Make Time is another horse I have plenty of time for. He was a possible Guineas horse before a set-back and should go well following his Goodwood second last time out.

2:25 - The Grand Visir (12/1) , Secret Advisor (9/1) ew

William Haggas and Daniel Tudhope team up with The Grand Visir, a promising son of Frankel. He ran very well in a strong handicap at Newbury, but always looked like this longer trip would suit. He won when last seen, and seems to be improving well. If he can continue his progression he will be competitive here.

Secret Advisor sets a strong standard on the form of his Queen's Vase third. Charlie Appleby's three-year-old was disappointing at Goodwood last time out, but should benefit from the return to this trip.

3:00 - Nebo (5/1)

Charlie Hills' Nebo could finally get his head in front after some promising efforts at this level. His runner-up efforts at Newmarket and Goodwood set a high standard, and although on differing ground he goes on anything. He is improving, and deserves to win a pattern contest.

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Dubka won four races on the trot last season, and is our big fancy for the Ebor

3:35 - Dubka (12/1)

It has been no less than 21 years since Sir Michael Stoute has won the Ebor, and he is very strongly represented with Dubka. She showed how much better she was over this longer trip when a close second at Group Three level, beaten by a neck by a very good mare in Endless Time. That form sets a very high standard, and she is weighted well.

4:10 - Out In The Flames (8/1)

Richard Hannon's two-year-old is on a revival mission in what looks a competitive listed contest on the Knavesmire. Her Royal Ascot third works out very strong, but her last two runs have been a tad disappointing. She needs more but she has got talent, and if she brings her very best to York she could have a say.

4:40 - UAE Prince (10/3) , Brorocco (14/1) ew

I was frustrated to see this horse lose at Glorious Goodwood, as it ran on so quickly just found more traffic than a commuter on the M25 at rush hour. Today he can certainly make amends for that fourth place efforts. He will like the conditions, and the handicapper hasn't moved his mark since that effort. He can go close here. 

I keep banging on about Brorocco, and I think he's got a big win in him soon. He is running well without winning at the moment, and he chased home a good horse in Godolphin's Game Starter last time out. His mark of 89 is very handy.

5:15 - Copper Knight (8/1) , Pennsylvania Dutch (9/1) ew

Copper Knight is a lovely front-running horse, who I think may just see them all off today. He carries top weight but has gone down a 1lb for his decent fourth place effort at Ascot last time out. This looks a good race, on a flat track with good ground. Adam McNamara is a talented jockey, and he can ride him close to winning.

I spoke to William Haggas about Pennsylvania Dutch before his Leicester run, and he was always quite confident with the horse. He finished a creditable third that day, beaten by two horses that connections expected to run well. A drop to five is an unknown, but may bring out the best in him. He's certainly a horse with a future, and can be dangerous on this weight.

Best of the rest

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Count Octave puts his classic credentials on the line at Goodwood this afternoon

3:15 Newmarket - Black Bolt (10/1)

Richard Hannon had a nice 10/1 winner tipped by us last week, Black Bolt may follow that pattern. He was an encouraging winner at Kempton in November, but was very disappointing at Newbury last time out. He should be better for the run, and could run well in this good handicap.

3:55 Goodwood - Count Octave (11/4)

I am a big fan of this horse and I think he could even be a big contender for next month's St Leger. He's still progressing and was last seen finishing a very close second at Royal Ascot. This is a step down in grade, and he should go well against this field. 

4:15 Chester - Sun Lover (4/1)

A big win is only a matter of time for Roger Varian's Sun Lover. He has finished second on both starts this season, and remains unchanged by the handicapper for his narrow defeat at Doncaster last time out. He'll sit behind the leaders so Chester should suit him.

4:25 Newmarket - Gifted Master (9/2)

Another of my antepost selections is Gifted Master, so today is a bit of a big day! He was a very encouraging winner of a conditions race last time out, and his trainer thinks he is a top horse. If he is going to compete in those top races, then he should go close. I fully expect him to do so.

5:10 Windsor - Lamya (11/8)

My NAP of the day is Lamya in the opening race at Windsor. He is nicely bred, and reports from home are very encouraging. He finished sixth on his debut, and will come on a lot from that run. A horse with a future, he should be up to winning this maiden.

7:40 Windsor - Love Conquers (15/8)

This horse has been pulled-out on a few occasions, but today he should finally run. I like this horse, he is bred well and ran very strongly at Newbury last time out. He didn't lose by very much, and I would expect him to come out on top in this weak contest.

My Saturday Lucky 15 (Lamya/Love Conquers/ Sun Lover/ Black Bolt)