A big weekend of flat action starts for us on Friday at Newmarket with two value punts in Group races.
Friday 9th October 2020
3.00 Newmarket (Challenge Stakes – Group 2) – ZAKOUSKI
It’s a busy Group One day at Newmarket, and while we resist the temptation to bet in the Fillies’ Mile, there is a value punt to be had in this Group 2 event.
Favourite Khaloosy is not as good as his rating suggests for me, Daahyeh is returning from a break and Happy Power may want just a slightly faster event.
Glorious Journey returned to form last time for Charlie Appleby and ranks very high on the list, but William Buick rides Zakouski instead and he is fancied to carry on the sharp improvement he was showing in Dubai early in the year.
Having beaten Headman on debut and won a Group 2 at Meydan on only his fourth start, it’s clear this is a horse who is expected to win Group 1’s eventually so if he handles the ground, he is a big price.
4.45 Newmarket (Pride Stakes – Group 3) – FRANCONIA
On paper this is a very competitive fillies and mares’ race, with Magic Lily being no mug and the likes of Anna Nerium and Angel Power still capable at this level.
Franconia however was a genuine classic contender earlier in the season and should return to form now. John Gosden’s filly was a good winner of the Abingdon on only her second start before winning at York, though even in scoring that performance and her defeat in the Yorkshire Oaks perhaps showed a dislike for that course and/or quicker ground.
This will be more the test she needs, she’s capable of a Group One win making this look almost a drop in class, and over the straight 1m2f being drawn 13 of 14 is a good thing with the stalls on the near side.
Saturday 10th October 2020
1.45 Newmarket (Zetland Stakes – Group 3) – KYPRIOS
makes Kyprios the one to be on. Aidan O’Brien’s colt has already reached for me a similar level to his rivals, most of which are more experienced, and he did so on heavy ground over an extended mile.
Given that, plus his being by Galileo, he should stay on best of all with Lone Eagle perhaps proving to be best of the rest. Recovery Run, Fabilis and Mystery Angel are all in contention.
2.20 Newmarket (Autumn Stakes – Group 3) – DHAHABI
The likely favourite here is Aidan O’Brien’s Van Gogh, however I feel he’s been overestimated somewhat.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Maximal could prove to be very useful yet and rates highly, while fellow Derby entry Megallan could outrun his odds for John Gosden now he gets different conditions.
It may yet come down to the Godolphin pair however, though this time we ignore William Buick’s choice One Ruler.
Rated 102, One Ruler is an obvious choice for Buick and he has already beaten Maximal before. He’s an improver for sure, but he was pretty much beaten fair and square in Listed company last time out and there’s no guarantee this test will suit.
Charlie Appleby’s other horse, Dhahabi, is more fascinating. An extremely expensive purchase, he has already run to a very similar level as his chief rivals after just two runs, with his breeding (Frankel x Fleche D’Or) suggesting he’ll see this out very well under James Doyle.
2.55 Newmarket (Dewhurst Stakes – Group 1) – ALKUMAIT
Britain’s premier juvenile event was taken in the last two years by exceptional two-year-olds Too Darn Hot and Pinatubo, though it’s a race that often catches out the one’s we believe to be top of the tree.
That could well be the case in the prevailing conditions for Joseph O’Brien’s Thunder Moon, though he is of course very good, while fellow Irish entrants Cadillac and Wembley can go just as well.
Richard Hannon has been very, very bullish about his unbeaten Champagne Stakes winner Chindit after some apparently exceptional homework of late.
While he is obviously good, he looks as though he has been best for a test of pace while this change of venue and ground will test his stamina a little. It must also be said that had things worked out a little differently at Doncaster, he may well not have beaten Albasheer.
Albasheer reopposes and has plenty of improvement in him, however he has been quite rightly passed over by Jim Crowley in favour of Alkumait and he rates the best value bet in the race.
Improving in lumps, Alkumait put his debut fourth behind him when impressing in a maiden at Goodwood before landing the Mill Reef last time in great fashion for this column at 8/1.
He needs to prove his stamina here, but he is a lot like fellow Showcasing colt Mohaather, also trained by Marcus Tregoning, who got the mile really well this year as a three-year-old and it remains possible we could be seeing the emergence of a real star.
4.50 Newmarket (Darley Stakes – Group 3) – DARAIN
Based on the conditions, which plenty of the main contenders have not necessarily excelled in, it could be down to the two exciting three-year-olds to fight this out.
The likes of Epic Hero, Marie’s Diamond, Posted and Dream Castle are of course all capable, however in Highest Ground and Darain there may be two later-maturing three-year-olds who can yet win at the top level next season.
Highest Ground, trained by Sit Michael Stoute, was the gamble of the race in the delayed Dante Stakes at York, though a lot of that was about reputation. If it was about form, then beating the then highly regarded Waldkonig doesn’t look so hot now and he was ultimately beaten fair and square at York too.
John Gosden’s Darain cost a fortune and won in the style of a very good horse on debut at Newbury in July. Things were a little too easy for him next time when winning at HQ, while it’s clear that the trip was no good for him when he was beaten in the Great Voltigeur. This should be ideal and he is expected to prove how good he can be.
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