We have a simply huge weekend of racing across Saturday and Sunday, with 16 Group or Grade 1’s being staged in England, France and the USA alone.
There are also some very important Grade 1 races in Australia on Saturday morning, races which can help shape the betting market for the upcoming Melbourne Cup, but we stick a little closer to home on this occasion.
Saturday
12.30 ParisLongchamp (Prix Chaudenay – Group 2) – MAX VEGA
This 1m7f race for three-year-olds gets Arc weekend under way, and it’ll be some slog for these young animals in the conditions.
There seems to be some confidence behind Alain De Royer-Dupre’s Valia, a Listed winner back in July. However, the bare form of that race and the fact that she’s been beaten fair and square twice since doesn’t entitle her to be any better thought of than Mykiss at a bigger price.
Better than both could be Max Vega for Ralph Beckett and Frankie Dettori. While he wasn’t particularly good at Kempton on the all-weather or in what was a very strange Derby at Epsom, he did look the part when beating Miss Yoda easily on soft ground in the Zetland last year, showing real staying qualities.
Max Vega also returned to form last time out when upped to 1m5½f in the Geoffrey Freer, finishing second to Hukum in the end and it seems he will be able to dictate things here.
2.45 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes – Group 1) – NAZEEF
There’s no doubt that on my private ratings this race is tight with 8 fillies and mares being within 6lbs of each other.
However, given the conditions and with a few other variables taken into consideration I’d be fairly confident that Billesdon Brook, Feliciana De Vega, Veracious, Champers Elysees, Peaceful and Half Light may just be a little way behind John Gosden’s pair of runners.
Of course, Terebellum and Nazeef have met before at Newmarket when the latter beat the former over on the July Course in the Falmouth Stakes. Having backed Nazeef her win was no shock to me, though Mr Gosden expressed his surprise that favourite Terebellum didn’t prove to be best.
Once more the Godolphin horse is ahead of the selection in the market, but Nazeef has an improving profile overall and it’s not up to us to say she’s finished getting better yet.
Even a similar effort to her battling Falmouth win, her third run in only 44 days and achieved on soft ground, for me would be good enough to get her in the frame once again at least so should she improve she could be a few pounds clear of the field.
3.25 ParisLongchamp (Prix Daniel Wildenstein – Group 2) – MAAMORA
While it’s a shame there aren’t more betting opportunities for us on Arc day itself, Longchamp’s Saturday card may have thrown another our way here with Maamora potentially overpriced.
Favourite is The Revenant and while his form is undoubtedly best, he’s been off for a year and there can be no guarantee at all he’ll be on his ‘A’ game – if there was, you’d feel he would be in a Group 1.
Shaman is decent as is Motamarris, however surprise Sandown Group 3 winner Maamora has been treated as a fluke which is very unfair.
Leading all the way in the Atalanta Stakes, the Crisfords’ filly battled on brilliantly to the line to beat Billesdon Brook and she looks the type to fight best in the soft ground here, with the chance to dictate the pace under Frankie perhaps being there again.
10.24 Keeneland (Breeders’ Futurity – Grade 1) – ESSENTIAL QUALITY
Godolphin are taking the same route with this two-year-old Essential Quality as they did last year with Maxfield, winner of this race and the one I strongly believed but for injury would have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Essential Quality recorded a similar speed figure to his main rivals when winning on debut at Churchill Downs, and considering that was over six furlongs and he is by Tapit, he is bound to perform way better over this extended one-mile trip.
He’s heading to the top alright, so with suitable race conditions and given the fact his morning line is 2/1 in the States and he is around 3/1 here, he is worth a bet. If he wins this, he’ll return to the course and distance in November for the Breeders’ Cup.
Saturday & Sunday Double
Preakness Stakes & Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Double – AUTHENTIC & ENABLE
The two most important races of the weekend are undoubtedly the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris on Sunday (3.05) and the final leg of this year’s Triple Crown in the States, the Preakness Stakes at 10.36PM on Saturday at Pimlico.
Having tipped up Authentic in the Kentucky Derby, it’s obvious I’ve always been a fan of this horse. He’s truly top class. Despite a hard race at Churchill Downs, he should prove too good again here with no Tiz The Law to push him, though I expect Ellis Park Derby winner Arc Collector to get to the top level too.
As for the Arc, the weather has meant the race is nowhere near as good as it could have been. This race has gone from a potentially vintage renewal to, in terms of standard, being no better than many European Group 1 races.
While the weather and the bigger field may well mean that star stayer Stradivarius can come into his own, he really shouldn’t beat stablemate Enable here for the erudite John Gosden.
True, this is not her best ground as we saw last year, but there’s no Waldgeist here, she is fitter and better prepared than twelve months ago and will appreciate a bit of a test herself.
These two selections are both at around the 5/4 mark so, while they are a little short, the confidence is there and at around the 4/1 mark they make a very good-looking win double bet in the two major races.
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