When taking into account racing overseas as well as at home, this is one of the biggest weekends of the entire year.
The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris is backed up by a fantastic, Group 1-laden card over Saturday and Sunday, while Melbourne Cup favourite Incentivise is strangely second-favourite to win early doors on Saturday in the Turnbull Stakes.
Juvenile Jack Christopher may make his Breeders’ Cup case at Belmont, as may Maxfield, while the likes of Suesa, Space Blues and Stradivarius (ground permitting) all have winning chances in France.
We have to concentrate on those with an even bigger winning chance and/or those who are better value for money however, with this tidy bunch being spread over three great days of weekend action.
Friday 1st October 2021
3.05 Ascot (Noel Murless Stakes – Listed Race) – MANDOOB
Brian Meehan’s Shadwell runner Mandoob could yet be heading to the top. His form is solid, he’s only three runs into his career and he chased home Yibir last time out at Newmarket.
He would have had a good chance in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes on Saturday in which he was also engaged, however this 1¾-mile trip is better for him with the drop to Listed company being coincidental.
Scope is the obvious danger, though the consistent Chalk Stream and improver First Light can also get into the frame.
4.50 Ascot (Handicap) – SUNRAY MAJOR
The Gosden team have always thought a lot of this horse, enough anyway to keep the four-year-old son of Dubawi in training despite him managing only two runs in his life until two weeks ago.
On his belated return he blitzed his opposition at Chelmsford, putting up the sort of performance that makes him appear a horse capable of 105+ despite getting into this handicap off only 95.
He should be clear then, though if Top Secret handles rain-softened ground he too can go well.
Saturday 2nd October 2021
1.30 Ascot (October Stakes – Listed Race) – WITH THANKS
The rain may finally be arriving in time for William Haggas’ With Thanks to once again show her best form.
Only a four-year-old, we haven’t reached the bottom of this girl yet but she is already a wide-margin Group 3 winner on heavy ground with any easing of conditions going in her favour. Her jockey Tom Marquand is the best on show of those in with a chance, Highfield Princess and Bounce The Blues being next on the list.
1.45 Newmarket (Fillies’ Handicap) – PRINCESS NADIA
Despite this mile-and-a-quarter fillies’ handicap being an open affair, 5/1 the field at the time of writing, it was still very surprising to see Princess Nadia being quoted at double-figure prices when they first went up.
The Gosden runner has rock-solid form with the likes of Mandoob and Brunnera, may appreciate which way the ground is going and will relish being on the Rowley Mile for the very first time.
She’s too big a price for a horse with a fine chance, with Swoon and Evident Beauty being among a clutch of fillies capable of mounting a challenge.
2.05 Ascot (Rous Stakes – Listed Race) – MINZAAL
A terrific juvenile last season seemingly heading to the top, Minzaal’s form is over six furlongs and he was indeed entered over that distance in the Bengough Stakes later on this card.
In fact, he is the type to get quicker over time and on this track on his first start for over a year, five furlongs will far enough for him to go.
True, Hurricane Ivor, Dakota Gold and the likes provide stern and match-fit opposition, but on class alone he’s the best in this field so assuming natural improvement cancels out the potential for needing the run slightly, he too is simply overpriced on the early betting shows and is worth a small bet.
2.40 Ascot (Cumberland Lodge Stakes – Group 3) – QUICKTHORN
Hukum will be all the rage again, but he has a penalty and seems to have flattened out albeit at a very good level.
Ilaraab can carry on his improvement and looks up to this grade, as does Doncaster handicap winner Title who ran so well at Ascot. Alignak too is no mug, but the one to be on could be Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn.
A winner on the soft at the royal meeting in June, the four-year-old has since run second in the Ebor and put up a big show when taking a useful conditions race at Salisbury. He’s going the right way for certain and looks the value in this contest.
2.55 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes – Group 1) – SAFFRON BEACH
It’s easy to see why Falmouth Stakes winner Snow Lantern is being well backed for this, while 1000 Guineas heroine Mother Earth is another obvious candidate.
The Guineas form is still crucial here though, with my focus being on Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Saffron Beach. She has bullet-proof form against some of the best in the business, is improving all the time (possibly past her old rivals) and recorded a comfortable Group 3 win last time.
The form of that success at Sandown has been franked in no uncertain terms, the booking of big-race jockey and title-chaser William Buick being the last important piece of this puzzle to have been slotted in.
4.00 Longchamp (Prix Dollar – Group 2) – MEGALLAN
Given the plethora of Group 1 action, the mile-and-a-quarter Prix Dollar may just slip under the radar a little.
Dubai Honour, Magny Cours, Saiydabad and Patrick Sarsfield can all go well, but Megallan cannot be ignored for John and Thady Gosden.
Second to Yibir and fourth to One Ruler as a juvenile, he has done nothing but improve at three. He landed the Burradon Stakes in good style at Newcastle, chased home Hurricane Lane in the Dante and won a Group 3 last time out. He has plenty of steel and can see this field off under Frankie Dettori.
Sunday 3rd October 2021
3.05 Longchamp (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – Group 1) – ADAYAR
Europe’s premier middle-distance race can have a new hero. Looking to follow in the hoofprints of the likes of Sea The Stars, Sinndar and Golden Horn is Derby winner Adayar and he simply looks the best horse in the race.
Very few horses can take down the Derby and the King George, even fewer go on to land this famous treble, but Charlie Appleby’s son of Frankel has every single attribute needed and can surely shine on his date with destiny.
A good pointer is the choice of William Buick to ride this horse. Hurricane Lane, third to Adayar at Epsom, has gone on to land the Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris and the St Leger no less. He too would be making history if winning the final Classic of the season as well as the Arc, but despite an enforced break his stablemate is the one.
Adayar missed an intended prep race at Longchamp due to a small issue, but he’s been in full work for three weeks and the team are very confident.
Challenging him for favouritism is the mare Tarnawa. A multiple Group 1 winner including over this course and distance, she was carried across the track by St Mark’s Basilica when beaten narrowly by the top colt in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, all that at a distance short of her best.
She is solid for sure, as is runaway Oaks winner Snowfall, but they will all have to reach a new level to get to Adayar who can make history.
We may even see a Godolphin 1-2 here, with Chrono Genesis, Alenquer and Love also considered for places.
3.50 Longchamp (Prix de l’Opera – Group 1) – ZEYAADAH
A small bet can be justified on Zeyaadah here at the likely double-figure prices.
A Listed winner as a juvenile and an unlucky loser in the Cheshire Oaks, Zeyaadah has shown great speed to win a Group 3 at Newcastle and was only just denied by Lady Bowthorpe in the Nassau on softer ground.
One could argue she has the best form in this race, with Burgarita, Palmas and Audarya also challenging for place money.
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