Friday, 8 October 2021

Friday 8th & Saturday 9th October 2021: Mullins to Burn to Victory in Cesarewitch

On a huge global weekend of action, we have tons of information once again. Inspiral should dominate the Fillies’ Mile on Friday while Native Trail deserves his spot as favourite in the Dewhurst.

Native Trail’s trainer Charlie Appleby also has Hafit, Goldspur and Coroebus in with top chances as he continues to dominate the juvenile ranks, while Moshaawer, Siskany and Marshall Plan are likely types in the Old Rowley Cup.

The best value however comes across Friday and Saturday with the selections below.

Friday 8th October 2021

1.50 Newmarket (Cornwallis Stakes – Group 3) – HIERARCHY

Hugo Palmer’s juvenile Hierarchy was only just touched off in the Mill Reef in a good time at Newbury over six furlongs on his last run. That day he had the likes of Dhabab in behind, who is in the Dewhurst, and this stiff five furlongs looks to be right up his street.

Oisin Murphy is the ideal man to have on board and the pair are backed ahead of Twilight Jet and Guilded.

2.25 Newmarket (Oh So Sharp Stakes – Group 3) – GOOD AMERICAN

You’re always taking a chance with a once-raced horse, but Ralph Beckett’s Good American looks like a proper type.

Her winning debut at Salisbury was an outstanding run, the second has won since, she is by American Pharoah and will appreciate the race conditions. Perfect News is next on the list, with Malavath behind her while Allayali on breeding may not appreciate this test.

3.00 Newmarket (Challenge Stakes – Group 2) – AL SUHAIL

Another high quality seven-furlong Group 2, and it really is about time we had a Group 1 race over this distance in Britain for three-year-olds and over.

Garrus is interesting going up in trip, Chindit is solid and D’bai put in a good performance last time. His stablemate and the choice of William Buick however is Al Suhail who was always thought of as a top-level horse.

He has Group 1 form, won very well at Haydock and didn’t like the softer going last time. He should have enough to take this for arguably the world’s in-form trainer Charlie Appleby.

3.50 York (Heritage Handicap) – FLEURMAN

Mahrajaan, trained by the excellent William Haggas, is on a four-timer here and is second-best on my list but may not like the ground too slow.

Ralph Beckett’s last-time-out winner Fleurman however does like these conditions and is on a sharp upward curve. He won over this 1¾-mile distance last time out very easily and looks to be some way ahead of the handicapper despite his latest 12lb rise.

4.40 Newmarket (Pride Stakes – Group 3) – SAYYIDA

The likes of Ville De Grace, Lilac Road, La Jaconde and Soft Whisper all have chances here in a competitive event, while Lights On would be near the top of the list had the ground been soft.

Charlie Appleby’s Sayyida however looks the best value. She has steadily improved on all seven of her starts so far, there is no reason to think that progression will stop, and the drop to a mile-and-a-quarter having only just been beaten at this level last time out would appear to be in the daughter of Dubawi’s favour.

10.45 Keeneland (Alcibiades Stakes – Grade 1) – MATAREYA

This is a “win and you’re in” race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, while it also provides points for next year’s Kentucky Oaks.

Based on speed ratings and the ability and/or form of the horses she beat easily on debut, Matareya is overpriced for this Grade 1 event. She can take this before heading off to Del Mar in November.

Saturday 9th October 2021

2.02 York (Rockingham Stakes – Listed Race) – CANONIZED

William Haggas’ Cheveley Park filly Canonized has tons of speed and has been very busy this season. She’s already run ten times in her juvenile season, even turning out twice in two days at Ayr, but she’s won three times and keeps improving for her racing.

She can burn this field off, with Gisburn next on the list ahead of Witch Hunter and Hellomydarlin.

3.35 Newmarket (Cesarewitch Handicap) – BURNING VICTORY

The second leg of the Autumn Double can once again go to Willie Mullins. Other than Saeed bin Suroor’s Live Your Dream, my shortlist was dominated by those trained at National Hunt yards with Whiskey Sour, M C Muldoon and especially Buzz showing up well.

Burning Victory however is lightly raced, has a lot more to come yet, and will have the assistance of William Buick up top.

4.25 York (Handicap) – MIDRARR

Initially I thought this race would be too competitive to be betting in; Eagle Court, Gumball and Benadalid all looking booked for big runs in the conditions.

Midrarr however has shown much better form either on genuinely soft ground, or on Wolverhampton’s tough Tapeta track and he could be significantly ahead of the assessors.

Ignoring his latest run on fast ground then, he has shown sharp improvement and will take another step forward for this first step up to two miles for William Haggas and Tom Marquand.

4.45 Newmarket (Darley Stakes – Group 3) – MOSTAHDAF

Seven-year-old Barney Roy could roll back the years with another solid Group performance, but we cannot ignore the significant potential still held by John & Thady Gosden’s Mostahdaf.

Twice a Listed winner, he was a decent fancy for the St James’s Palace Stakes in June but having been badly hampered before losing all chance, he suffered his only career defeat so far at the very top level.

9.44 Keeneland (First Lady Stakes – Grade 1) – ALTHIQA

Charlie Appleby took Grade 1 races with Althiqa at both Belmont and Saratoga over the summer, and he can repeat the trick at Keeneland’s wonderful Fall meet. She’s 6 from 11 now, is getting better all the time and in all truth looks a few pounds better than Blowout, Viadera who is drawn wide, and Princess Grace.

10.46 Keeneland (Keeneland Turf Mile – Grade 1) – ORDER OF AUSTRALIA

Ivar won this race at a big price last year and is feared again, while former British-trained Space Traveller is also in with a chance from gate 4.

Aidan O’Brien’s Order Of Australia however looks made for this. He was a 40/1 winner over the course and distance in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last year and has recently got to within two lengths of both Baaeed and Palace Pier, the best two milers in Europe. The brilliant John Velazquez rides.

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