It’s a huge weekend for jumping action as Cheltenham hosts the Racing Post Gold Cup on day two of the International meeting. But the better bets may come elsewhere as we head off to Doncaster, Newcastle and even Hong Kong in search of profit.
Saturday 11th December 2021
11.50 Doncaster (Novices’ Hurdle) – TOP OF THE BILL
We have an early start on Saturday morning as Doncaster’s opener provides our first betting opportunity of the weekend in the 2m3½f Novices’ Hurdle.
After winning under champion-elect Brian Hughes last time out, Gredin will be well fancied again for the same rider although his penalty makes him vulnerable.
Nicky Henderson’s Westwood Ryder is bound to be backed too, but the solid one in the line-up is Top Of The Bill for the Nigel Twiston-Davies camp and he gets our vote.
He made a solid enough start to hurdling at Lingfield when fourth of six in November and he’s better than that. He could prove to be good value, with Ask The Doc also considered.
2.05 Doncaster (Handicap Hurdle) – TAKE IT EASY
Staying at sunny Donny for the extended two-mile handicap hurdle, I very much like the look of Pam Sly’s runner Take It Easy.
Since March his form figures have been 311212 and it seems we haven’t seen the best of him yet. He was a little disappointing when a beaten favourite last time out at Huntingdon, but before that at Wetherby he was impressive in beating Tommy’s Oscar and natural improvement from that race to now would see him comfortably ahead of his handicap mark.
Tommy’s Oscar challenges once again and is next best on my list, while Sonigino is fancied for Paul Nicholls and Bryony Frost who looks close on the numbers with Lucky One and Geromino in what is a competitive enough heat.
2.20 Newcastle (Conditions Stakes) – COLTRANE
Newcastle’s all-weather card is largely unremarkable but for a couple of events that need to be watched.
Some good novices line up over a mile with one or two possessing the potential for decent things next year, while this two-mile conditions race is worth £10,000 to the winner and is a qualifier for the £1 million All-Weather Championships Finals day at Easter back at Gosforth Park.
Rainbow Dreamer has the form in the bag to land this race and we’d never doubt Alan King, but the horse isn’t really getting any better and could be vulnerable to an improver.
The one I like best of all at the odds is Andrew Balding’s Coltrane. Having won the Melrose last year, it was always obvious he had talent and despite some problems he is bang in form now after a staying-on second at Kempton last month.
He’ll have kicked on from that and will appreciate the more demanding nature of this track, making him on balance the most likely winner. Island Brave and Northumberland Plate hero Nicholas T are also obvious candidates.
2.40 Doncaster (Summit Juvenile Hurdle – Grade 2) – MAGISTRATO
While the Triumph Hurdle trial over at Cheltenham is just a Class 2 affair this weekend, the Summit featuring similar types is a quality Grade 2 race and it may be one for the Nicholls/Frost team.
Their Magistrato ran to a good level in France behind Porticello and won nicely on his British debut at Chepstow in October. He wasn’t at his best last time out at Cheltenham, but that has only served to make him a backable price in this contest and we should look to take advantage.
Given that he’s getting weight from the talented Too Friendly and from Knight Salute too, he looks a solid bet in this one at what will hopefully be 3/1 and over.
3.42 Deauville (Prix Luthier – Listed Race) – INTUITIVE
Unfortunately, there are no prices listed at all at the time of writing for this Listed race in France, but Intuitive is stuck up on the proviso that he is handed reasonable odds when the market eventually opens up.
There are two Godolphin runners in the eleven-strong field and British representation coming from not just our horse, but also David O’Meara’s Azano.
It’s competitive and the selection, trained by Simon and Ed Crisford, is drawn a little wider than ideal but he is the best horse in this race, loves the surface, is fit and in form and should be good enough to take them all down.
Sunday 12th December 2021
6.00 Sha Tin (Hong Kong Vase – Group 1) – PYLEDRIVER
There are four Group 1 races on Sha Tin’s massive card early on Sunday morning UK time, with the mile-and-a-half Hong Kong Vase being our first port of call.
Japanese trained runner Glory Vase may well be a strong favourite and there’s little doubt that the six-year-old has some top-class form.
Aidan O’Brien’s Mogul is also in the line-up, but really at this precise moment in their careers they may just not be up to the level of Coronation Cup winner Pyledriver who should be backed to score for William Muir and Chris Grassick.
A Great Voltigeur winner as well as a Coronation Cup scorer, Pyledriver is top level and was given a lovely pipe-opener when he landed a Listed race at Lingfield four weeks away giving away 7lbs to some nice types.
He’ll be in tip-top conditions for this event, will love the conditions and in fact this very race has been his long-term target for some time.
8.30 Sha Tin (Hong Kong Cup – Group 1) – DUBAI HONOUR
William Haggas is a simply brilliant trainer, so when he takes an improving type all the way to Asia for a race, even one worth £1.6 million to the winner, we have to sit up and take notice.
His Dubai Honour has had a wonderful 2021. Fourth in the Britannia before winning a valuable handicap at Newmarket, he reached new heights when being thrown straight into and landing a Group 2 at Deauville while he finished the domestic season with an impressive second in the Champion Stakes.
This mile-and-a-quarter is perfect for him and the feeling is that he’s been running well despite soft ground rather than because of it. If that’s the case, he can reach a new level here.
Loves Only You, Lei Papale and familiar faces Mac Swiney and Bolshoi Ballet are his main rivals.
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