There is Grade 1 hurdle and fiercely competitive handicap chase action this week, all ably supported by a Listed race card on the Flat at Lingfield.
Most eyes are on Ascot over the weekend which is where we start on Friday, a couple of young up-and-coming types having taken my eye.
Friday 17th December 2021
1.45 Ascot (Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase) - RED ROOKIE
It would be no surprise if, in this two-mile novices’ race, Emma Lavelle’s six-year-old Red Rookie had near halved in price to usurp Brave Seasca as favourite by Saturday afternoon.
The son of Black Sam Bellamy was handed just two bumpers and three hurdle races in his earlier career, winning three times, always running with credit and improving all the while.
On his first chase race he took an even bigger step up the ladder and still has even more to offer yet. Having not jumped the penultimate fence too well at Chepstow he ran on very well and was only just denied, that form looking good in the context of this race.
Brave Seasca and One True King appear to be best of the rest.
3.30 Ascot (Championship National Hunt Flat Race - Listed Race) - HENRI THE SECOND
In the bumper that closes Friday’s card at Ascot, unless there is some very serious improvement from Authorised Speed, we can concentrate on three runners in Henri The Second, Top Dog and Hugos New Horse.
Top Dog has run second on both bumper starts to date and should improve again now. Emma Lavelle’s runner clearly has talent, but has put a lot into those runner-up efforts in big fields meaning it’s very plausible that we know his level.
There is more potential perhaps in Paul Nicholls’ Hugos New Horse. A winner first time up at Worcester, he can perhaps prove to be better then Top Dog now or in time, though may have to give best to his stablemate this time.
That horse is Henri The Second, another first time out winner for Nicholls. In this case, he won at Chepstow not only by over eight lengths but also very comfortably. He looks the best of this bunch and is worth a bet.
Saturday 18th December 2021
1.25 Lingfield (Handicap) - MOHAREB
Disappointingly, only four runners have been declared for this Class 2, six-furlong handicap but that doesn’t stop us finding a handy bet.
Assuming that these sprinters all want to go a decent pace and ensure the event isn’t overly tactical, then there’s plenty of value in Mick Appleby’s Mohareb.
Looking out of form lately at a glance, Mohareb’s handicap mark is back to a very usable one. A closer look however reveals that the surface matters so much to him.
His last four runs on Tapeta have seen him run 6679, though at Lingfield he has won and finished second during the same period. He can prove to have too much at these weights for Fizzy Feet and Soldier’s Minute for a crack all-weather team.
2.00 Lingfield (Quebec Stakes - Listed Race) - GARDEN PARADISE
Felix ran very well just in behind Pyledriver and Harrovian in a course and distance event at this level recently, and so deserves his place as favourite. He was rather dragged along by two quality runners though and won’t necessarily improve from it.
Sir Michael Stoute’s old favourite Regal Reality still has some ability and could roll back the years with a big performance, while United Front is another with talent and rates as a big danger. The one I like however is Garden Paradise.
On a hat-trick now for the James Tate team, the four-year-old daughter of Night Of Thunder is improving in absolute lumps now and it’s interesting that she has scored over 1m6f and 1m4f reverently. Now going over 1m2f, she can use her speed even more and can win once again under Luke Morris.
2.25 Ascot (Long Walk Hurdle - Grade 1) - THYME HILL
The Long Walk should go a long way to deciding the staying hurdle pecking order for this season, and it could go to a horse which has always looked capable of reaching the very top.
Once described as the best novice around and then later winning the Liverpool Hurdle, Thyme Hill is a Grade 1 scorer and a quality animal and should be better than this bunch.
Buzz is the likely favourite for Nicky Henderson, but he along with Champ and Thomas Darby should really be left fighting for places behind Philip Hobbs’ star.
Paisley Park was a great champion but doesn’t look up to it anymore, while Ronald Pump also needs to jump up a level.
2.35 Lingfield (Handicap) - DEAL A DOLLAR
Another Class 2 race at Lingfield, one in which Pivoine, Protected Guest and Midnights Legacy are all very close on the books and can run well. The standout however is Deal A Dollar and he gets the vote.
David Simcock’s runner has been off since last summer but if he’s ready to go then he can prove to be well handicapped. The trip and the Lingfield surface should suit him and it may just be that he proves to be good value on his comeback appearance.
3.00 Ascot (Silver Cup Handicap Chase - Listed Race) - GRAND SANCY
One noticeable thing about this excellent three-mile handicap chase is that many of the runners have already shown us their best form.
With that in mind, it could prove profitable to seek out that one younger runner with potential and the standout in that category is Grand Sancy.
Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old already has the form in the book to put it up to the likes of Belami Des Pictons, Cloth Cap, Jerrysback and Regal Encore at the weights, meaning the likelihood of more progress makes him a cracking bet.
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