It’s that time again! With (most of) the Christmas festivities out of the way, Kempton leads the way in hosting a huge Boxing Day/St Stephen’s Day programme with the King George VI Chase the highlight as always.
There is Grade 1 action over the jumps on both sides of the Irish Sea, while Wolverhampton almost slips under the radar with a quality Flat card on the all-weather.
We have seven quality bets which will hopefully boost those betting banks before Monday’s Welsh Grand National at Chepstow, starting at Kempton Park:
1.20 Kempton (Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase) – DANNY KIRWAN
Nicky Henderson’s Bothwell Bridge is the likely favourite here after winning easily last time at Sandown, however he’s gone up 5lbs since and could be vulnerable to one whose chase debut can be seriously upgraded and who has been well backed this week.
The horse in question is Danny Kirwan of Paul Nicholls’ yard. He didn’t jump the best around Cheltenham last time, often right-handed in fact, and blundered at a crucial time before fighting on for second place.
At 133 he’s well handicapped even on that form, but given that it should have been a whole lot better and he will have improved since, he looks better off at the weights than his main rival. Mister Coffey was also on the shortlist.
2.10 Wetherby (Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase – Grade 3) – EMPIRE STEEL
Among all the hubbub of two major race days at Kempton, the excellent Rowland Meyrick Chase often goes a little more overlooked than it should.
This year’s three-mile battle looks like a cracker and in Empire Steel we may get some terrific betting value. Trained by the consistently underrated Sandy Thomson in Berwickshire, the seven-year-old had a nice start to the season when second at Haydock recently.
Based on his chase debut win last October, definitely his slamming of Protektorat in February and of course natural progression, he could be a good deal better than his 141 rating and these racing conditions should bring the best out of him.
Silver Hallmark is high on the list too while Windsor Avenue, Good Boy Bobby, Debece and Cloudy Glen all look capable of challenging for places.
2.17 Fontwell (Handicap Hurdle) – ROYAUME UNI
Although the price may now not be the biggest after the race cut up slightly, Royaume Uni looks the best of these and can be backed.
Gary Moore’s four-year-old has generally stayed in good form this calendar year and is reaching a new level now, while the yard certainly knows how to win around here. Smurphy Enki at a potentially big price and the better-fancied Pyramid Place are perhaps best of the rest.
2.30 Kempton (Christmas Hurdle – Grade 1) – NOT SO SLEEPY
There have been shocks and perceived shocks in this event in the past and it could happen again. Epatante, an excellent mare and former Champion Hurdle winner, is set to go off odds-on here but that looks very skinny.
To my mind she performed no better and no worse than expected at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth in which she dead-heated with Hughie Morrison’s Not So Sleepy.
They meet again on the same weight terms and given that Not So Sleepy’s form appears to be still climbing, it seems daft for him to be three or four times the price of Epatante in the market.
As well as winning his share of the Fighting Fifth four weeks ago, he previously skipped away at Ascot to beat Buzz so it’s more than possible that going right-handed, even on a flatter track, could be up his street.
Tritonic is very interesting having been allowed to turn out quickly after his Grade 3 success last weekend, while Soaring Glory could also be in the mix.
2.40 Limerick (Faugheen Novice Chase – Grade 1) – VANILLIER
Now that Beacon Edge, Cape Gentleman and Ferny Hollow are out of this race it comes down to Gabynako, Lifetime Ambition and Vaniller most likely in what is an intriguing Grade 1 contest.
To me it’s a little strange that Gabynako is slated to be favourite. It seems that Lifetime Ambition reached a similar level last time from one fewer chase outing, while Vanillier could have even more improvement in him and ultimately gets the nod.
Gavin Cromwell’s grey was impressive last time at Punchestown on just his second chase start, scoring by 26 lengths with any amount in hand. We don’t know his ceiling yet but even natural improvement from that race to this is probably makes him the most likely winner.
3.00 Wolverhampton (Conditions Stakes) – LORD OF THE LODGE
There are some quality performers turning out at Wolverhampton and some represent good betting value too. in this Class 2 six-furlong event, Lord Of The Lodge is the one to be on for Karl Burke.
About to turn five and really reaching his peak, the Dandy Man colt has done his best work over seven furlongs so far but won on the Tapeta at Newcastle last time in the style of a horse who may have appreciated the shorter trip having just held on.
That was on the straight course at Gosforth Park, so flying round the bends here over six could bring out a little more and with that he has an advantage over Ejtilaab, Soldier’s Minute, Exalted Angel and Judicial who were all considered too.
3.05 Kempton (King George VI Chase – Grade 1) – MINELLA INDO
This is the big one. While the King George often gives major clues for the upcoming Gold Cup at Cheltenham, this time it could be the current Gold Cup champ who doubles-up in the shape of Minella Indo.
When assessing quality performers Clan Des Obeaux, Asterion Forlonge, Chantry House and the ever-popular Frodon, it became clear Henry De Bromhead’s star does have his work cut out but it also seems that he could afford to be a few pounds below his Festival best and still win this race.
That may or may not turn out to how he performs, but either way he is right in the front rank of contenders here and yet sits behind Clan Des Obeaux in the early betting markets which makes him pretty good value considering he has achieved more than anything else in the field and may still have better days to come. Rachael Blackmore rides.
4.10 Wolverhampton (Handicap) – CLAP YOUR HANDS
Another Class 2 race here, one in which the early prices about Clap Your Hands are simply too big. David Simcock’s runner hasn’t been seen on the track for some 18 months but training techniques being such as they are these days, that doesn’t put me off at the odds.
He was still improving when last seen racing regularly, albeit over longer trips than this 1¼ miles, but his best form was at Wolverhampton, he has the speed for this and may be doing his best work late anyway. Power Of States, Dark Pine and Alexander James can all challenge.
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