It’s another mixed bag this week as Sandown hosts its all-important Imperial Cup card over the jumps, while there’s a Listed race and the Lincoln Trial on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton.
We begin there, though opportunities await in Surrey.
2.05 Wolverhampton (Lincoln Trial Handicap) – HAFEET ALAIN
It’s not certain how well the eventual winner of the Lincoln Trial will go in the big race itself at Doncaster in two weeks’ time, but in its own right this extended mile event can present a good betting opportunity.
In some ways the race revolves around a horse we’ve successfully backed before. La Tihaty, trained by Roger Varian, has been on the drift this week but still presents a huge danger given that he is a fast-improving four-year-old from a top yard who is now unbeaten in four.
It remains to be seen how he goes on this surface having done his winning so far at Lingfield, Chelmsford and Kempton, though he did it nicely last time when beating Misty Grey who is favourite for the Listed race on the card.
His main rival is six-year-old Hafeet Alain and he represents good value. Also an improver, Ed Walker’s gelding was just a length behind La Tihaty at Kempton in January and ran very well at Wolverhampton before that.
He’s now 7lbs better off with that horse and was a comfortable winner last time out. Richard Kingscote rides.
3.00 Sandown (Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race – Listed Race) – EABHA GRACE
Though most of his concentration quite rightly goes on Cheltenham at this point, Willie Mullins sends a mare over to Sandown for this event and she should not go overlooked at the odds.
Though poor last time out in a Grade 2, Eabha Grace was excellent on her bumper debut before that and there is clearly a lot more to come from her.
Based on how well she won at Thurles and assuming natural improvement from December to now, she’s at least at the same level at these weights as Flirtatious, Mullenbeg and Lucia if not better and so rates as a bet.
Mullenbeg and four-year-old Lucia have been the ones for money, but they do look a little short in the market now.
3.31 Lingfield (Handicap) – TADREEB
Over at Lingfield, it’ll be very interesting to see how shortie King Of Time gets on in the novice stakes over a mile for Charlie Appleby, with Will Buick back from Dubai to take the ride. We concentrate betting-wise on the 3.31 however, a Class 2 handicap over seven furlongs.
Bowman is the rank outsider here, but all of the other four are challenging to be market leader with Papa Stour, Stone Soldier and Intuitive all clearly capable.
Michael Attwater’s Tadreeb however has a nicer profile. The only four-year-old of the main quartet, he is improving as he should be at this age and comes into the race as a last-time-out winner over course and distance.
Since moving from Mark Johnston’s yard Tadreeb has run a good fourth at 100/1 before winning at 18/1 and his progression is easy to see. At these weights, another step forward should see him home and that looks pretty likely.
3.35 Sandown (Novices’ Handicap Chase – Listed Race) – DANNY KIRWAN
In this small but high-quality Listed handicap chase over 2½ miles, the speed that Danny Kirwan is capable of in between fences could prove absolutely crucial on the drying Sandown ground.
Each of Danny Kirwan’s three chase runs to date have provided encouragement and for various reasons. On the numbers, his debut second to Annual Invictus at Cheltenham is his best run and gives him a chance here anyway before improvement is considered.
Second time out he was soundly beaten at Kempton but was clocking some speed figures that mark him out as being above his rivals here. Last time he beat nothing, but did it very easily indeed in a race that will have put him spot-on for this contest. Paul Nicholls’ runner is the one for us then under Harry Cobden.
The main dangers would appear to be Scene Not Herd who is on a four-timer here, and Colin Tizzard’s last-time-out winner Killer Kane.
7.30 Kempton (Conditions Stakes) – EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS
Kempton’s evening meeting has among other things a Fast Track Qualifier for All Weather Championships Finals Day on April 15.
There will over £1 million in prize money at Newcastle on Good Friday between AWC Finals Day races and the Burradon Stakes, and one that can book a ticket to the jamboree is Earlofthecotswolds.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ eight-year-old has former Sagaro Stakes winner Nayef Road to beat. The Sagaro in question, it mustn’t be forgotten, was staged on the all-weather at Newcastle in 2020.
Nayef Road is rated 109 but hasn’t been at that level for a little while. He also has to give 3lbs to Earlofthecotswolds and that could prove to be decisive on the night.
Rated 139 over hurdles, Earlofthecotswolds has finished 2nd, 3rd and 1st on the all-weather so far and is getting better on these surfaces. His form behind Sleeping Lion gives him a chance here, while he also won very, very easily last time and can reach new heights now under Liam Keniry.
10.23 Tampa Bay Downs (Tampa Bay Derby – Grade 2) – CLASSIC CAUSEWAY
We’re back on the Kentucky Derby trail on Saturday night and it’s the turn of the Tampa Bay Derby to try to produce a real Derby contender.
There are 50 points offered to the winner of this race, a number that would most likely guarantee the victor a place at Churchill Downs on May 7.
While all horses can be forgiven a bad run now and then, should no disasters befall Classic Causeway then he should make short work of this field.
The likely second favourite Major General doesn’t look good enough just yet, while the third horse in the market Shipsational was comfortably beaten by Classic Causeway last time.
This will be the last chance we get to see a Giant’s Causeway offspring at this sort of level and he has a major chance in the Derby. He’s a 16/1 and 20/1 chance for the Derby here, but shorter in the States where he is quite well fancied.
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