Friday 4 March 2022

Saturday 5th March 2022: A Hypothetical Saturday Wager

Those interested in all forms of the game are in for a busy one on Saturday.

We’re racing all around the world from before dawn until well into the night, as Group/Grade 1 action is hosted in the USA, Dubai and Australia on the flat.

The highlights of the jumps action closer to home are Kelso’s huge day which includes the £100,000 Morebattle Hurdle featuring Metier, Buveur D’Air et al as well as the Premier Chase, Doncaster which hosts the Grimthorpe Chase and of course Newbury too.

We bet right across the world from 5.20AM right up to 10.42PM, beginning down under with a major Group 1 event.

5.20 Flemington (Australian Guineas – Group 1) – PROFONDO 

Both the Randwick Guineas and the Australian Guineas are run on Saturday morning. Godolphin’s Anamoe is a heavy favourite for the former, and it’s his form with Hitotsu which makes Ciaron Maher & David Eustace’s colt a warm order for this $1 million Flemington event.

Hitotsu won the Victoria Derby over 1¼ miles around here in late October and really appears to need that sort of trip, indeed he is fancied to go on to the Melbourne Cup in November.

Better suited to this mile however may well be impressive Spring Champion Stakes winner Profondo. He is lightly raced, appears to have been a few pounds better than Hitotsu at a similar career stage, has tons of improvement in him and can make light of a wide draw by keeping out of trouble there before sweeping past.

1.32 Kelso (Premier Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 2) – RICHMOND LAKE

It’s a marked shift going from a mile race in Australia to this soft ground hurdle at Kelso, but the event is absolute quality.

Alan King sends North Lodge and he is very well fancied, indeed the five-year-old is 2-2 having won a Grade 2 at Cheltenham.

That was on good ground however, while old rival Richmond Lake is definitely suited to this surface. He has a big weight turnaround now and only found Jonbon too good for him last time on the track.

Donald McCain and Brian Hughes are a feared duo and they can score once again.

1.55 Meydan (Al Maktoum Challenge R3 – Group 1) – HYPOTHETICAL 

Off to Dubai this time for round three of the Al Maktoum Challenge. In truth, this is a very weak Group 1 but that just makes it all the more winnable for last year’s runner-up Hypothetical.

Hypothetical is strong in the context of this race; he is getting better on the dirt while his conqueror from last year Salute The Soldier is arguably going the other way.

He is drawn wide, but he looks like the top dog in this race and Mikael Barzalona’s mount can book his ticket for the Dubai World Cup in three weeks’ time.

3.30 Meydan (Jebel Hatta – Group 1) – ZAKOUSKI 

At the prices, we can take a small chance on Godolphin’s six-year-old Zakouski.

It’s well known that there is very close form between several of these runners. Lord Glitters can go well yet again, though some quite understandably fancy Barney Roy to get upsides or even turn the tables on him.

William Buick however has chosen Zakouski over Barney Roy and I reckon he’s got it right. He’s had his pipe-opener for the season when finishing just 1¾ lengths behind Lord Glitters three weeks ago and he should be at his best now.

3.37 Newbury (Handicap Hurdle) – DORKING BOY

This is a competitive 2½-mile handicap hurdle at first glance, but there’s plenty to like about the rock-solid Dorking Boy.

Tom Lacey’s gelding is more consistent than progressive, but it’s how his speed figures read on very soft ground that catches the eye and it could be that he just handles these conditions much better than the rest.

In terms of his out-and-out form, he was a winner two outings back and then found only one well-handicapped horse too good last time. He remains on the same official mark himself, Stan Sheppard rides.

4.19 Lingfield (Spring Cup – Listed Race) – CANONIZED

Much like with Zakouski, there is nothing certain about Canonized’s chances but we can afford to take a chance on her.

She is a very tough, consistent filly. William Haggas’ runner was given no fewer than 12 runs as a juvenile, taking them all in her stride and winning four times. She has scored at Group 3 level and at Listed level in the Rockingham.

She kicked off her season at Newcastle just ten days ago and was soundly beaten by El Caballo who reopposes today. However, her speed figures are nothing special for a sprinter and it appears it has been guts and class that have got her home in the past rather than out-and-out speed.

With that in mind, this quick surface and a seventh furlong for the first time should be right up her street. It would be no surprise to see her have more left in the tank having been allowed to bowl along at a slower pace, potentially allowing her to turn around the form with El Caballo and confirm it with Witch Hunter from the Rockingham.

9.40 Gulfstream Park (Gulfstream Park Mile – Grade 2) – NY TRAFFIC

It’s a big Grade 1 day over in Santa Anita but we concentrate on Florida, firstly with this Grade 2 mile event.

Speaker’s Corner is undoubtedly well fancied for Bill Mott, but the classy NY Traffic can get back to his best and land this $200,000 race.

Saffie Joseph’s five-year-old had close form in the past with the likes of Maxfield and Authentic, but won’t need to reach that level to win this. He warmed up by landing a six-furlong event very easily last time and is primed for a big run now under the excellent Irad Ortiz Jr.

10.42 Gulfstream Park (Fountain of Youth Stakes – Grade 2) – EMMANUEL 

We’re on the Kentucky Derby trail now with both this event and the Florida Derby often providing very strong contenders for Churchill Downs.

Simplification is the morning line favourite in the States, though I note that the first British-based bookies to offer odds favoured Emmanuel and that could be smart.

Two from two now, Todd Pletcher’s More Than Ready colt somewhat toyed with his opposition last time and has clocked some impressive figures. He can win this, then go onto the Florida Derby before taking a crack at the Run for the Roses. In Due Time and Rattle N Roll can also go well.

No comments:

Post a Comment