This Saturday sees the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle take place at Newcastle, part of the hurdling Triple Crown and now featuring the exciting Constitution Hill.
He is long odds on for this and, as a word of caution; just about all modern winners of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle who have remained over the smaller objects go backwards after winning that race. At least on the numbers and at least at first.
If he does that, the door could be open for Epatante who has done it all before including at Newcastle.
In any event, we begin our betting weekend on Friday at Newbury.
Friday 25th November 2022
1.20 Newbury (Novices’ Hurdle) – RUSSIAN RULER
The official going description at Newbury is ‘good’ for Friday’s racing. Nobody has told Nicky Henderson that, clearly, as he still intends to run Russian Ruler among others.
In this novices’ hurdle the early favourite is Stay Away Fay. He won a point-to-point and has been sent to Paul Nicholls, but there’s very little to go on and what we have got doesn’t entitle him to be market leader.
That pushes Russian Ruler’s price out and he is the clear pick of those with experience over hurdles, so rates a bet on the grounds of value.
He is a winner and he was improving fast last season, being sent into Grade 2 company at one stage, and now he’s back after a break he may be tough to beat.
1.55 Newbury (Berkshire Novices’ Chase – Grade 2) – CAMPROND
When only glancing at this race you would, like many punters and the bookmakers, come to the conclusion that Stage Star is well clear and is not worth opposing. A closer look however reveals something a little different.
Paul Nicholls’ runner did win well on his chasing debut, beating West Cork by 13 lengths and he can go on from that too.
The level we expect him to reach is something around the 150-mark, which doesn’t make him unbeatable where rival Camprond is concerned.
Rated 147 over hurdles, he was second-favourite behind McFabulous on his chase debut, who won and is leaving his own 153 rating behind. He unshipped his rider at the first however. That’s not ideal, but he’s priced accordingly and it’s easy to see him getting to that 150 level or above, while his hurdle form also gives hope to him having superior pace around this track on good ground.
2.30 Newbury (Handicap Chase) – THE WIDOW MAKER
Market-wise this is a very tight handicap chase indeed and that’s something that also plays out in a lot of the numbers. Standing tall at the top of the rankings however for me is The Widow Maker and it may well be that he’s the outsider of the field.
The eight-year-old has a nice light weight to carry and is certainly better than his current handicap mark. Joe Tizzard’s horse wasn’t great on his seasonal debut, but that’s nothing to worry about at this stage.
At least he’s race fit now and before that he’d won at Exeter and finished third of six in a Grade 1 at Aintree no less. He has also shown the speed to win on good ground over two miles.
He gets the nod over Paint The Dream, Killer Clown, Caribean Boy and Beakstown though it is close in behind.
3.05 Newbury (Long Distance Hurdle – Grade 2) – PROSCHEMA
This race could go a long way towards sorting out the pack in what looks like an open Stayers’ Hurdle race this season.
Champ is obviously quality and is second on my list, though I feel he is going ever so slightly backwards and at nearly eleven years old and making his seasonal debut, it may well be he really feels this.
Public horse Paisley Park is simply wonderful but is highly unlikely to reach his former heights on this ground, while a better bet for the forecast is perhaps Dashel Drasher.
Last year’s winner Thomas Darby is another to consider, but he was put in his place by Proschema in the West Yorkshire Hurdle last time and he shouldn’t be turning that form around.
I’ve always been a big believer in Proschema as a hurdler, and as a staying one he’s found his calling. He’s improving fast, has all the attributes needed for this event and can now announce himself as a real Stayers’ Hurdle contender with another Grade 2 win.
Saturday 27th November 2022
1.35 Newcastle (Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase) – SHANTOU LUCKY
A tight race, one that may take some getting if Newcastle do produce the proper jump racing ground that they’ve promised all week.
This is a three-miler for the novices’, one in which the Irish trained Shantou Lucky has travelled a good way to take part and he’s the best of them for me.
Based on his second at Perth behind Ubetya, allied with what was a sharp rate of progression at the time over fences, he could be pretty well handicapped in this sphere so gets the vote.
3.05 Newbury (Coral Gold Cup – Premier Handicap Chase) – REMASTERED
As always, the race formerly known as the Hennessy has attracted a very strong, very tight and very competitive field. There are all sorts of horses we could mention, but the focus should be on Remastered for betting purposes.
David Pipe’s nine-year-old, who is at a perfect stage of his career to take this on, ran in a hurdle race last year before falling when well placed to challenge in this race.
He was more impressive this time around in his hurdle prep, is a better animal now, and is very well in at the weights so can be backed at reasonable odds. Lord Accord, Le Milos and Threeunderthrufive were next on the list.
3.25 Newcastle (Rehearsal Handicap Chase – Premier Handicap) – INTO OVERDRIVE
Representing last year’s form are Aye Right and Dingo Dollar, both horses also being race fit and in form.
Much of the talk will be about Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival winner L’Homme Presse, who missed his last engagement and comes here for better ground.
We’ve already seen Bravemansgame win the Charlie Hall and Protektorat win the Betfair, now it’s this fella’s chance to make a mark on the Cheltenham Gold Cup market.
At the weights however, I reckon Mark Walford’s Into Overdrive could be the one. The big improver in the race, the seven-year-old stays well and has won his last four chases. He may still be ahead of the handicapper.
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