Friday, 18 November 2022

Saturday 19th November 2022: Pro to Give It a Go in Betfair Chase

Constitution Hill makes his comeback this weekend in the Coral Hurdle which will be a fascinating watch, but watch is all we should do at the odds given.

Other Cheltenham hopefuls are also running, including returning heroes A Plus Tard and Edwardstone, with Haydock and Ascot sharing Saturday’s limelight.

As a sidenote; watch out for the betting and subsequent performances of Tagabawa and Isle Of Jura on Saturday evening at Wolverhampton, two New Approach colts making their debuts for Charlie Appleby.

12.10 Haydock (Newton Novices’ Hurdle – Listed Race) – SIZING POTTSIE

With Paul Nicholls in such rare form his Tahmuras may take centre stage in the betting, at least we hope he will. Harry Cobden’s ride won easily last time for sure, but his form isn’t exactly head and shoulders above.

Twinjets is interesting as is Snake Roll, but Sizing Potties is the most interesting runner in the field.

As an eight-year-old he has more experience than the others and he’s back in this sphere (and country) having gone chasing with Jessica Harrington.

On his return he was a very easy winner at Ayr which should have primed him to get back to his best form, a level that would be too good for the others if he can achieve it.

1.10 Lingfield (Fillies’ Handicap) – KIRILENKO

The bulk of this field is very hard to separate; Queen Of Burgundy, Granary Queen, Victoria Grove, Lady Eros, Night Battle and Thebeautifulgame all being in with place chances.

The standout is most definitely Kirilenko however, who appears to have been rather leniently treated by the handicapper.

As well as having a mark we think is a little light, Sir Michael Stoute’s filly has superior speed to the others, is well draw and has handled both quick turf and a Polytrack surface well. One last thing in her favour is the booking William Buick who flies straight back from Bahrain on Friday.

1.30 Ascot (Mares’ Handicap Hurdle) – TERRESITA

Four of the six runners in this field are relatively close together on form, something that is reflected in the overnight odds.

Coquelicot, Victoria’s Peak, Glimpse Of Gala and Terresita will all be on bet slips in a race that will knock out many a placepot coupon.

The mare that just sticks her head above the parapet however is Terresita. Aidan Coleman rides for Lucy Wadham on a mare who’s won three from seven on varying ground and who has the capacity to remain ahead of the handicapper.

2.05 Ascot (1965 Chase – Grade 2) – HITMAN

This race often proves to be very informative with chases of varying distances in the spring in mind; Wayward Lad, Red Marauder, Albertas Run, Master Minded, Al Ferof, Politologue and Cyrname having all won it.

This time around, we have a long odds-on favourite in the shape of L’Homme Presse and he has been very impressive to date.

His biggest rival is Paul Nicholls’ Hitman who is better than what he’s shown so far, and at the weights is about on a par with L’Homme Presse in these conditions.

The crucial factor is speed and I reckon he has more of it than L’Homme Presse, something that will be crucial in this race.

Hitman is entered at Haydock as well and that was to be his first preference, however there is a strong chance he will be rerouted here due to the weather and that could be a smart move.

2.25 Haydock (Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle – Premier Handicap) – COMPLETE UNKNOWN

This fourteen-runner handicap field is a close one at first glance, just as you’d expect for one of the bigger betting races of the month.

Both Wholestone and Good Risk It All are high on the list after their race at Carlisle late last month, while Brinkley can also go well. Most of the money has been for Might I who also has a place chance.

The one to be on at the odds however is Complete Unknown. Paul Nicholls is in great form and his terrific season can continue in this valuable race.

Complete Unknown has low mileage and is improving. He is ready to head back up to this three-mile trip, but the most crucial point is that he has shown the most toe in genuinely soft ground which will count for a lot with the forecast the way it is.

3.00 Haydock (Betfair Chase – Grade 1) – PROTEKTORAT

Backing anything in this field against last year’s winner and Gold Cup hero A Plus Tard requires Henry De Bromhead’s star to underperform.

That remains entirely possible however and he is still long odds-on at the time of writing, creating opportunities elsewhere.

It was thought during the week that he may not run if the ground gets too soft and the rain has in fact arrived. His performance may yet still be good enough, but it’s likely to be some way behind his Gold Cup winning level which opens the door for Protektorat who should love underfoot conditions.

3.15 Ascot (Hurst Park Handicap Chase) – THYME HILL

Thyme Hill is properly on track in his chasing career now after winning a good race over course and distance three weeks ago.

He won that with more authority than the distance suggests, his overall profile being sufficiently upward in its trajectory for punters to be able to go in with confidence again.

His main rival is probably Boothill, though Thyme Hill has more speed, while Third Time Lucki, So Scottish and Arkle winner Edwardstone were all considered too.

3.35 Haydock (Handicap Chase) – FONTAINE COLLONGES

At around 5/1 at the time of writing, Venetia Williams’ seven-year-old Fontaine Collonges looks good value in these tough conditions to continue what was some sharp progression and win her seasonal debut.

She’s been off the track a while but should be OK to go now, she gets through this sort of ground very well and there’s lots in her profile to suggest she is very well handicapped.

She can get the better of Houston Texas who is another moving up the ranks, while in behind Lord Du Mesnil and JP McManus’s Easysland and Musical Slave may be battling on.

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