Saturday 16th October 2021: Adayar to Cap Amazing Season in Champion Stakes

It’s Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday, when the jockeys’ and trainers’ titles will be decided.

There are matters to settle between equine rivals on the track too, and we have a selection in every race other than the Champion Fillies and Mares Stakes on what promises to be a fantastic day of action.

We begin however down under, where the Melbourne Cup odds are about to be shaken up again.

7.15 Caulfield (Caulfield Cup – Group 1 Handicap) – NONCONFORMIST

Incentivise has been all the rage at the top of the Melbourne Cup market, his long unbeaten run now including the Makybe Diva and Turnbull Stakes.

He’s been given a killer barrier for this AU$5 million race, but so have most of his chief rivals and so his short price is to be expected.

That said, at the weights he is very vulnerable over this mile-and-a-half trip. Craig Williams’ mount Nonconformist is given 8lbs here, is drawn four gates inside of the favourite, and showed absolute top level form last time when running Probabeel to a short head at Group 1 level over a mile-and-a-quarter.

He’s value to upset the favourite, Incentivise being next on the list ahead of Melbourne Cup contenders Young Werther and Delphi.

1.25 Ascot (British Champions Long Distance Cup – Group 2) – STRADIVARIUS

This race has proven once again to be quite difficult to handicap. Strad hasn’t always had the happiest time in this race, but he battled on stoutly behind his old rival Trueshan in Paris two weeks ago in conditions that these days suited the other horse much, much better.

Back over two miles and definitely on a sounder surface, he now looks good value to finish the season and perhaps even his career with one last big race success.

Hamish may improve further for this trip although that’s not guaranteed, while Trueshan can still be a threat even if he doesn’t get things all his own way, and Baron Samedi will need to take a step forward.

2.00 Ascot (British Champions Sprint Stakes – Group 1) – CREATIVE FORCE

There are plenty in with chances on the book here, but three horses did stand out.

2020 Gimcrack winner Minzaal made a very satisfactory return to action last time in the Rous Stakes, in which he was slowly away and perhaps found the five furlongs too sharp. Here he can take a leap forward and he promises overall to be a top-class sprinter so cannot be ignored.

Art Power has done it all before. An easy winner at the Curragh last time, Tim Easterby’s colt was a close-up fourth in this contest last year and looks primed for another big run.

He was also a close fourth to Starman in the July Cup, just a neck ahead of younger rival Creative Force who now gets the vote to prove he is the best of this bunch.

The faster six and quicker ground that day would’ve suited Art Power just a little better than Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old, who earlier this season routed a Listed field at Newbury before scoring from out wide in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He is progressive, already has some solid Group 1 form, but crucially has been described by his trainer as a horse who is only just learning to sprint and we could see it all come together this weekend.

3.10 Ascot (Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – Group 1) – PALACE PIER

This mile championship event promises to be one of the races of the season.

Lady Bowthorpe has chased Palace Pier home already and won the Group 1 Nassau, Mother Earth is a classic winner, Benbatl carries the Godolphin first colours, The Revenant is the defending champ and Alcohol Free is a rock-sold Group 1 winner. Still, none of them made the top three!

William Haggas’ Baaeed is a classy colt. He’s unbeaten and is now a Group 1 winner. He has faced some rather unsatisfactory opposition so far in truth however, has beaten a regressive El Drama and on a line through Order Of Australia still has some catching up to do with Palace Pier. He may also want a 1¼ miles.

The pedigree of Master Of The Seas in the Godolphin second colours doesn’t scream fast ground, so that’s a plus. He was a whisker away from beating Poetic Flare in the Guineas which is truly top-level form, and had his run interrupted when returning from injury behind Benbatl in the Joel Stakes on a day when they broke the track record at Newmarket.

In an ordinary year he’d be the selection, but none of this bunch have achieved what Palace Pier has and he’s far from done yet. He’s the best horse in this race, has reached the best form level several times over, and always runs as though he can pull out more if and when challenged close home. He should prove his class once again.

3.50 Ascot (Champion Stakes – Group 1) – ADAYAR

A brilliant renewal. Dubai Honour is on a roll but is in a little deep here, while defending champion Addeybb is another year older and may want it even softer than it is.

The likely favourite is Mishriff who was simply brilliant in the Juddmonte International in August. He peaked there and while this trip is his ideal, he really wants a flatter/faster mile-and-quarter and he has already been beaten by Adayar this season.

Adayar really is the big dog. He missed his prep for the Arc and ran too fresh, while the lack of pace also didn’t help. He shapes as though, even as a stunning Derby and King George winner, that he could be even better over this distance and given how big and strong he is, the three-year-old weight allowance could really play a factor too.

Al Aasy cannot be discounted over this trip either and he could yet spring something of a surprise, but Adayar is taken to round off a terrific season for himself, William Buick, Charlie Appleby and Godolphin in the best way.

4.30 Ascot (Balmoral Handicap – Class 2) – SUNRAY MAJOR

Aldaary loves this track, it should be soft enough for him and on breeding the step up to a mile should prove no barrier.

King Leonidas made a very encouraging reappearance in a race that ultimately suited proper middle-distance types, so given that he looks like a real miler we should see a big performance now.

The choice of Frankie Dettori however is Sunray Major and it’s easy to see why. His progress has been beautiful since coming back from injury, there is nothing wrong with race conditions for him and he simply looks too far ahead of the handicapper for the others to cope.

Friday 8th & Saturday 9th October 2021: Mullins to Burn to Victory in Cesarewitch

On a huge global weekend of action, we have tons of information once again. Inspiral should dominate the Fillies’ Mile on Friday while Native Trail deserves his spot as favourite in the Dewhurst.

Native Trail’s trainer Charlie Appleby also has Hafit, Goldspur and Coroebus in with top chances as he continues to dominate the juvenile ranks, while Moshaawer, Siskany and Marshall Plan are likely types in the Old Rowley Cup.

The best value however comes across Friday and Saturday with the selections below.

Friday 8th October 2021

1.50 Newmarket (Cornwallis Stakes – Group 3) – HIERARCHY

Hugo Palmer’s juvenile Hierarchy was only just touched off in the Mill Reef in a good time at Newbury over six furlongs on his last run. That day he had the likes of Dhabab in behind, who is in the Dewhurst, and this stiff five furlongs looks to be right up his street.

Oisin Murphy is the ideal man to have on board and the pair are backed ahead of Twilight Jet and Guilded.

2.25 Newmarket (Oh So Sharp Stakes – Group 3) – GOOD AMERICAN

You’re always taking a chance with a once-raced horse, but Ralph Beckett’s Good American looks like a proper type.

Her winning debut at Salisbury was an outstanding run, the second has won since, she is by American Pharoah and will appreciate the race conditions. Perfect News is next on the list, with Malavath behind her while Allayali on breeding may not appreciate this test.

3.00 Newmarket (Challenge Stakes – Group 2) – AL SUHAIL

Another high quality seven-furlong Group 2, and it really is about time we had a Group 1 race over this distance in Britain for three-year-olds and over.

Garrus is interesting going up in trip, Chindit is solid and D’bai put in a good performance last time. His stablemate and the choice of William Buick however is Al Suhail who was always thought of as a top-level horse.

He has Group 1 form, won very well at Haydock and didn’t like the softer going last time. He should have enough to take this for arguably the world’s in-form trainer Charlie Appleby.

3.50 York (Heritage Handicap) – FLEURMAN

Mahrajaan, trained by the excellent William Haggas, is on a four-timer here and is second-best on my list but may not like the ground too slow.

Ralph Beckett’s last-time-out winner Fleurman however does like these conditions and is on a sharp upward curve. He won over this 1¾-mile distance last time out very easily and looks to be some way ahead of the handicapper despite his latest 12lb rise.

4.40 Newmarket (Pride Stakes – Group 3) – SAYYIDA

The likes of Ville De Grace, Lilac Road, La Jaconde and Soft Whisper all have chances here in a competitive event, while Lights On would be near the top of the list had the ground been soft.

Charlie Appleby’s Sayyida however looks the best value. She has steadily improved on all seven of her starts so far, there is no reason to think that progression will stop, and the drop to a mile-and-a-quarter having only just been beaten at this level last time out would appear to be in the daughter of Dubawi’s favour.

10.45 Keeneland (Alcibiades Stakes – Grade 1) – MATAREYA

This is a “win and you’re in” race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, while it also provides points for next year’s Kentucky Oaks.

Based on speed ratings and the ability and/or form of the horses she beat easily on debut, Matareya is overpriced for this Grade 1 event. She can take this before heading off to Del Mar in November.

Saturday 9th October 2021

2.02 York (Rockingham Stakes – Listed Race) – CANONIZED

William Haggas’ Cheveley Park filly Canonized has tons of speed and has been very busy this season. She’s already run ten times in her juvenile season, even turning out twice in two days at Ayr, but she’s won three times and keeps improving for her racing.

She can burn this field off, with Gisburn next on the list ahead of Witch Hunter and Hellomydarlin.

3.35 Newmarket (Cesarewitch Handicap) – BURNING VICTORY

The second leg of the Autumn Double can once again go to Willie Mullins. Other than Saeed bin Suroor’s Live Your Dream, my shortlist was dominated by those trained at National Hunt yards with Whiskey Sour, M C Muldoon and especially Buzz showing up well.

Burning Victory however is lightly raced, has a lot more to come yet, and will have the assistance of William Buick up top.

4.25 York (Handicap) – MIDRARR

Initially I thought this race would be too competitive to be betting in; Eagle Court, Gumball and Benadalid all looking booked for big runs in the conditions.

Midrarr however has shown much better form either on genuinely soft ground, or on Wolverhampton’s tough Tapeta track and he could be significantly ahead of the assessors.

Ignoring his latest run on fast ground then, he has shown sharp improvement and will take another step forward for this first step up to two miles for William Haggas and Tom Marquand.

4.45 Newmarket (Darley Stakes – Group 3) – MOSTAHDAF

Seven-year-old Barney Roy could roll back the years with another solid Group performance, but we cannot ignore the significant potential still held by John & Thady Gosden’s Mostahdaf.

Twice a Listed winner, he was a decent fancy for the St James’s Palace Stakes in June but having been badly hampered before losing all chance, he suffered his only career defeat so far at the very top level.

9.44 Keeneland (First Lady Stakes – Grade 1) – ALTHIQA

Charlie Appleby took Grade 1 races with Althiqa at both Belmont and Saratoga over the summer, and he can repeat the trick at Keeneland’s wonderful Fall meet. She’s 6 from 11 now, is getting better all the time and in all truth looks a few pounds better than Blowout, Viadera who is drawn wide, and Princess Grace.

10.46 Keeneland (Keeneland Turf Mile – Grade 1) – ORDER OF AUSTRALIA

Ivar won this race at a big price last year and is feared again, while former British-trained Space Traveller is also in with a chance from gate 4.

Aidan O’Brien’s Order Of Australia however looks made for this. He was a 40/1 winner over the course and distance in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last year and has recently got to within two lengths of both Baaeed and Palace Pier, the best two milers in Europe. The brilliant John Velazquez rides.

Friday 1st, Saturday 2nd & Sunday 3rd October 2021: Adayar to Join List of All-Time Greats

When taking into account racing overseas as well as at home, this is one of the biggest weekends of the entire year.

The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris is backed up by a fantastic, Group 1-laden card over Saturday and Sunday, while Melbourne Cup favourite Incentivise is strangely second-favourite to win early doors on Saturday in the Turnbull Stakes.

Juvenile Jack Christopher may make his Breeders’ Cup case at Belmont, as may Maxfield, while the likes of Suesa, Space Blues and Stradivarius (ground permitting) all have winning chances in France.

We have to concentrate on those with an even bigger winning chance and/or those who are better value for money however, with this tidy bunch being spread over three great days of weekend action.

Friday 1st October 2021

3.05 Ascot (Noel Murless Stakes – Listed Race) – MANDOOB

Brian Meehan’s Shadwell runner Mandoob could yet be heading to the top. His form is solid, he’s only three runs into his career and he chased home Yibir last time out at Newmarket.

He would have had a good chance in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes on Saturday in which he was also engaged, however this 1¾-mile trip is better for him with the drop to Listed company being coincidental.

Scope is the obvious danger, though the consistent Chalk Stream and improver First Light can also get into the frame.

4.50 Ascot (Handicap) – SUNRAY MAJOR

The Gosden team have always thought a lot of this horse, enough anyway to keep the four-year-old son of Dubawi in training despite him managing only two runs in his life until two weeks ago.

On his belated return he blitzed his opposition at Chelmsford, putting up the sort of performance that makes him appear a horse capable of 105+ despite getting into this handicap off only 95.

He should be clear then, though if Top Secret handles rain-softened ground he too can go well.

Saturday 2nd October 2021

1.30 Ascot (October Stakes – Listed Race) – WITH THANKS

The rain may finally be arriving in time for William Haggas’ With Thanks to once again show her best form.

Only a four-year-old, we haven’t reached the bottom of this girl yet but she is already a wide-margin Group 3 winner on heavy ground with any easing of conditions going in her favour. Her jockey Tom Marquand is the best on show of those in with a chance, Highfield Princess and Bounce The Blues being next on the list.

1.45 Newmarket (Fillies’ Handicap) – PRINCESS NADIA

Despite this mile-and-a-quarter fillies’ handicap being an open affair, 5/1 the field at the time of writing, it was still very surprising to see Princess Nadia being quoted at double-figure prices when they first went up.

The Gosden runner has rock-solid form with the likes of Mandoob and Brunnera, may appreciate which way the ground is going and will relish being on the Rowley Mile for the very first time.

She’s too big a price for a horse with a fine chance, with Swoon and Evident Beauty being among a clutch of fillies capable of mounting a challenge.

2.05 Ascot (Rous Stakes – Listed Race) – MINZAAL

A terrific juvenile last season seemingly heading to the top, Minzaal’s form is over six furlongs and he was indeed entered over that distance in the Bengough Stakes later on this card.

In fact, he is the type to get quicker over time and on this track on his first start for over a year, five furlongs will far enough for him to go.

True, Hurricane Ivor, Dakota Gold and the likes provide stern and match-fit opposition, but on class alone he’s the best in this field so assuming natural improvement cancels out the potential for needing the run slightly, he too is simply overpriced on the early betting shows and is worth a small bet.

2.40 Ascot (Cumberland Lodge Stakes – Group 3) – QUICKTHORN

Hukum will be all the rage again, but he has a penalty and seems to have flattened out albeit at a very good level.

Ilaraab can carry on his improvement and looks up to this grade, as does Doncaster handicap winner Title who ran so well at Ascot. Alignak too is no mug, but the one to be on could be Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn.

A winner on the soft at the royal meeting in June, the four-year-old has since run second in the Ebor and put up a big show when taking a useful conditions race at Salisbury. He’s going the right way for certain and looks the value in this contest.

2.55 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes – Group 1) – SAFFRON BEACH

It’s easy to see why Falmouth Stakes winner Snow Lantern is being well backed for this, while 1000 Guineas heroine Mother Earth is another obvious candidate.

The Guineas form is still crucial here though, with my focus being on Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Saffron Beach. She has bullet-proof form against some of the best in the business, is improving all the time (possibly past her old rivals) and recorded a comfortable Group 3 win last time.

The form of that success at Sandown has been franked in no uncertain terms, the booking of big-race jockey and title-chaser William Buick being the last important piece of this puzzle to have been slotted in.

4.00 Longchamp (Prix Dollar – Group 2) – MEGALLAN

Given the plethora of Group 1 action, the mile-and-a-quarter Prix Dollar may just slip under the radar a little.

Dubai Honour, Magny Cours, Saiydabad and Patrick Sarsfield can all go well, but Megallan cannot be ignored for John and Thady Gosden.

Second to Yibir and fourth to One Ruler as a juvenile, he has done nothing but improve at three. He landed the Burradon Stakes in good style at Newcastle, chased home Hurricane Lane in the Dante and won a Group 3 last time out. He has plenty of steel and can see this field off under Frankie Dettori.

Sunday 3rd October 2021

3.05 Longchamp (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – Group 1) – ADAYAR

Europe’s premier middle-distance race can have a new hero. Looking to follow in the hoofprints of the likes of Sea The Stars, Sinndar and Golden Horn is Derby winner Adayar and he simply looks the best horse in the race.

Very few horses can take down the Derby and the King George, even fewer go on to land this famous treble, but Charlie Appleby’s son of Frankel has every single attribute needed and can surely shine on his date with destiny.

A good pointer is the choice of William Buick to ride this horse. Hurricane Lane, third to Adayar at Epsom, has gone on to land the Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris and the St Leger no less. He too would be making history if winning the final Classic of the season as well as the Arc, but despite an enforced break his stablemate is the one.

Adayar missed an intended prep race at Longchamp due to a small issue, but he’s been in full work for three weeks and the team are very confident.

Challenging him for favouritism is the mare Tarnawa. A multiple Group 1 winner including over this course and distance, she was carried across the track by St Mark’s Basilica when beaten narrowly by the top colt in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, all that at a distance short of her best.

She is solid for sure, as is runaway Oaks winner Snowfall, but they will all have to reach a new level to get to Adayar who can make history.

We may even see a Godolphin 1-2 here, with Chrono Genesis, Alenquer and Love also considered for places.

3.50 Longchamp (Prix de l’Opera – Group 1) – ZEYAADAH

A small bet can be justified on Zeyaadah here at the likely double-figure prices.

A Listed winner as a juvenile and an unlucky loser in the Cheshire Oaks, Zeyaadah has shown great speed to win a Group 3 at Newcastle and was only just denied by Lady Bowthorpe in the Nassau on softer ground.

One could argue she has the best form in this race, with Burgarita, Palmas and Audarya also challenging for place money.

Friday 24th & Saturday 25th September 2021: Admiral to Take Command in Cambridgeshire

It’s a Group 1 weekend at headquarters as the stars of the juvenile sprinting divisions strut their stuff in the Cheveley Park and Middle Park Stakes.

2000 Guineas runner-up Master Of The Seas also makes his long-anticipated return to the track in the Joel Stakes taking on Benbatl, but none of these races offer us a value bet.

Plenty of others do however, beginning on Friday on the Rowley Mile.

Friday 24th September 2021

1.50 Newmarket (Rosemary Stakes – Listed Race) – WEDDING DANCE

The two Sheikh Ahmed runners Fooraat and Maamora both have solid form chances here, the former perhaps even being sent off as favourite.

There’s little to separate a number of horses in this field in fact, so in a race in which arguably so many are much of a muchness broadly speaking, a chance can be taken on the returning Wedding Dance.

Charlie Appleby has his powerful string in simply superb form. Sent off 100/30 on debut, not too much was expected of Wedding Dance on her juvenile debut and she duly ran just OK in fourth. Much better was to come though.

She improved in lumps last season, securing an easy win second time out before just being denied in Group 3 company at Deauville. On a line through her French rivals and given the trajectory she was on; she is the only filly in the line-up capable of truly reaching a new level with Group 1’s not out of the question eventually.

2.25 Newmarket (Princess Royal Stakes – Group 3) – PENNYMOOR

In this competitive Group 3 event over a mile-and-a-half we can afford to keep stakes to a minimum and take a chance on one at a nice price. The horse in question is Pennymoor, another Godolphin runner this time trained by John and Thady Gosden.

Given her rate of improvement before her recent York disappointment, she’d be a shoo-in now off a mark of 95 in a handicap. It’s interesting therefore that her trainers send her into Group company instead and she’s definitely capable.

She was denied a clear run last time, but before that demolished her novice field at Kempton by more than nine lengths. Quicker turf than she’s run on before should bring the best out of her on breeding, so at double-figure prices he’s worth a dabble.

3.00 Newmarket (Rockfel Stakes – Group 2) – GIRL ON FILM

Strictly on form the once-raced Girl On Film has it all to do in this bona fide 1000 Guineas trial. For a Group 2 however, it’s not the strongest and some may not appreciate the conditions so with plenty expected of her by the Gunthers and trainer Ralph Beckett, Girl On Film is taken to score.

Majestic Glory, Oscula and Jumbly are all solid contenders too, but there was a lot to like about the daughter of Dabirsim’s debut and now with big race jockey Frankie Dettori on board she can fly.

3.45 Haydock (Handicap) – BANDINELLI

With Charlie Appleby’s first and second choice jockeys at Newmarket, it falls to none other than Derby winner Adam Kirby to ride Bandinelli and he could well be a nice priced winner.

Previously, many of us in the industry believed that Dubawi’s progeny got faster as they progressed, however we’ve learned now that they simply get better no matter what their speciality is and that can include staying as proven by the likes of Kemari and Yibir.

With that in mind, this step up to 1¾ miles looks ideal for recent mile-and-a-half winner Bandinelli. That success at Newmarket was achieved on his first run after a gelding operation, the three-year-old no doubt much better and fitter now. Moliwood is next best.

4.10 Newmarket (Godolphin Stakes – Listed Race) – STAR SAFARI

This is another very close and competitive event on paper, but it’s yet another the Appleby and Godolphin team will believe they can win.

Their Star Safari has plenty going for him. Despite being mature and tough as a five-year-old, he still has plenty more to offer having had only ten starts.

Of those 10 runs he’s won four, including at Group 3 level, but he escapes a penalty and should relish this 1½-mile trip on quick going. Alignak, Highland Chief, Fox Tal, Without A Fight and John Leeper can all battle for places.

Saturday 25th September 2021

1.50 Newmarket (Royal Lodge Stakes – Group 2) – COROEBUS

The top three in the market for this race all have Group 1 Vertem Futurity entries and all three are capable, as is Aidan O’Brien’s Howth who is also in the Doncaster showpiece.

Masekela may go off market leader, but mostly due to his form with Native Trail. He won a Listed race last time, but may not be of the class of Coroebus who may keep the Godolphin juggernaut going with a big juvenile win.

The Dubawi colt made a lovely winning debut from Saga over on the July Course and can now kick on up the levels.

2.40 Haydock (Handicap) – ROYAL CRUSADE

The usual types are in this five-furlong dash; Mondammej, Copper Knight and Jawwaal all remaining capable at this level along with Premier Power.

The interesting one however is Royal Crusade for the Boys in Blue. He’s been mostly disappointing for the past year, but is a proven Group horse. With 5lb claimer Adam Farragher now riding confidently, his claim is a genuine one which means Royal Crusade is running off an effective mark of just 98 despite being rated 110 previously.

Now he’s been gelded, he can get back to something like his old form and if he does then his price will look ridiculous.

3.40 Newmarket (Cambridgeshire Handicap) – IRISH ADMIRAL

The big betting race of the day, and one of the biggest of the season, is the Cambridgeshire.

Despite often being called a ‘nine-furlong sprint’ owing to the flat-out nature of the event, it’s so often won by a horse who stays a mile-and-a-quarter and/or is by a sire who saw out a mile as a three-year-old or stayed further when older.

The draw is a factor too, so if 15 isn’t too low then this could finally be Irish Admiral’s big day. A winner last time, he still hasn’t got to the levels Sheikh Ahmed and William Haggas thought he would but he’s now in top form and can kick on.

Anmaat is next on the list, ahead of Spirit Dancer and Chichester.

Friday 17th September, Saturday 18th & Sunday 19th September 2021: Huge International Weekend

It’s a very, very busy betting weekend this week. Spread across three days and two continents, we have 13 tips on horses who are all value for what they have achieved and/or can achieve, so spread your stakes out accordingly.

Friday 17th September 2021 

2.10 Ayr (Harry Rosebery Stakes – Listed Race) – PROJECT DANTE

On the second day of Ayr’s fabulous Gold Cup meeting, this Listed juvenile sprint gives us our first betting opportunity in the shape of Bryan Smart’s Project Dante.

Well named, he was a good winner at York first time up where I backed him to score and he’s since run a very good third in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot.

He’s rock-solid, can improve further, and has the speed to see off Canonized, who’s also entered in a Group 3 on Saturday, as well as Geocentric and Peggy Sioux.

2.45 Ayr (Arran Scottish Sprint Fillies’ Stakes – Listed Race) – WHITE LAVENDER

Immediately after the juveniles it’s the turn of the sprinting fillies. There’s little to choose on my book between Operatic, Blackberry, Tweet Tweet and Keep Busy at the weights, but the Irish-trained White Lavender stands out.

A winner on debut, White Lavender showed great speed to run on for second in a 15-runner Listed race last time out and any further improvement in that department would see her burn this field off under Gary Carroll.

2.55 Newbury (Conditions Stakes) – KING OF CONQUEST

There’s been plenty of talk about Ralph Beckett’s Westover in the build-up to this conditions event, but even more impressive on debut was Godolphin’s King Of Conquest and the Vertem Futurity entry can take another step up the ladder here under the title-chasing William Buick.

Conditions should be ideal for the Lope De Vega/Teofilo cross and the mile trip should be perfect for him now. Westover is indeed next on the list, ahead of Bolthole and Zechariah.

3.30 Newbury (Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes – Listed Race) – AL SUHAIL

This is a good quality seven-furlong race despite being at Listed level, and it’s one that Al Suhail can take down.

Charlie Appleby’s runner has always been held in very high regard, he still has Group 2 and Group 1 entries, had an excellent prep for this when winning at Haydock and previously chased home Tilsit in a Group 2 who very nearly went on to land a Group 1 of his own.

Silent Escape cannot be ignored at the weights, D’bai is solid, while Ace Aussie, Albasheer and Baradar may all get competitive at some stage.

Saturday 18th September 2021

2.15 Newbury (World Trophy Stakes – Group 3) – KHAADEM

Last weekend’s Portland Handicap winner Hurricane Ivor is in the field and he may be up to the job, but on paper the half-furlong drop back in trip as well as the prospect of faster ground aren’t in his favour.

King’s Lynn is another who may need just a tad further, while Tis Marvellous will challenge the selection for favouritism.

That selection however is Khaadem who is now showing signs of getting back to his best. When dropped to five furlongs last time he was in his element and an even better performance is in the offing here.

3.25 Newbury (Handicap) – KING LEONIDAS

Top horses no longer need a run after a long break to show their best, and no training yard is more adept at getting such types ready than that of the Gosdens.

Their King Leonidas has 2020 form with several horses that would lead me to believe he could be several pounds well in, and at the early prices quoted we can afford to take a chance on that being the case.

Aramaic is the main danger ahead of Mo’assess.

3.40 Ayr (Ayr Gold Cup – Heritage Handicap) – POPMASTER

In the big betting handicap of the weekend there is a strong hand held by Starman trainer Ed Walker. He trains likely market leader Great Ambassador, but even more appealing is his improving three-year-old Popmaster.

The way in which he won a decent race with the minimum of fuss at Ascot last time suggested he has plenty more to give, he’s officially 2lbs well in and will have the assistance of Hollie Doyle in the saddle. Big chance.

3.50 Newmarket (Fillies’ Handicap) – SAMMARR

Roger Varian’s filly Sammarr hasn’t been seen for over 200 days but that shouldn’t put anyone off. Having made a good winning debut at the end of 2019 there was plenty expected of her before she suffered a setback.

Given natural improvement she should be way better than her mark of 87 now, with another good pointer being that had she not been in the field, I’d have had Tarroob a few pounds clear of the rest and yet it’s Sammarr who carries the owner’s first colours.

4.00 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes – Group 2) – DHABAB

I backed Dhabab for the Coventry Stakes and thought he was very unlucky in running that day. That gives him some top form, while it was the seven furlongs that got him beaten in the Superlative Stakes in July.

The winner that day was Native Trail, now the highest rated juvenile around, and this track and trip should be perfect for the Gosden horse. Gis A Sub, Gubbass and Fearby are all capable of places.

10.14 Belmont Park (Jockey Club Oaks – Invitational Stakes) – CREATIVE FLAIR

Charlie Appleby is sweeping all before him and he has at least five chances of big wins in North American over the weekend.

I’m staying away from the Canadian International, but in this $700,000 race Creative Flair is value. Now drawn alongside her old rival Higher Truth rather than out wide, she can gain revenge on her after the pair finished second and third in the Saratoga Oaks last month.

10.45 Belmont Park (Jockey Club Derby – Invitational Stakes) – YIBIR

Straight after comes the $1 million Jockey Club Derby and it’s one in which Yibir can make his presence felt.

Aidan O’Brien’s Bolshoi Ballet came into the season with a big reputation, but his form over here didn’t match up to it while his Grade 1 win at Belmont over the summer equally didn’t set hearts racing.

Yibir has achieved more in the Sandown Classic Trial and especially in winning the Great Voltigeur at York and gets the vote again.

Sunday 19th September 2021 

10.06 Woodbine (Natalma Stakes – Grade 1) – WILD BEAUTY

Charlie Appleby has won this before and now sends Sweet Solera runner-up Wild Beauty to represent the yard. This one will be tough, but she has the ability and crucially is good value against the home team.

10.39 Woodbine (Summer Stakes – Grade 1) – ALBAHR 

Albahr is already right up with the best of the home runners on speed figures, he’s thought of as a Group 1 horse and can take what is seen as a key trial for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in November in which we may see the son of Dubawi again. Frankie Dettori rides.

Saturday 11th & Sunday 12th September 2021: On the Power Trail to Group 1 Wins

This truly is a huge weekend of action. There are Group 1’s in England, France and Ireland including the St Leger at Doncaster while the major trials for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe also take place in Paris.

Hurricane Lane should win the final classic of the season if he’s at his best over the trip although Mojo Star is a danger, while a small but select field take part in the Irish Champion Stakes in which it could be close in the conditions between Poetic Flare and St Mark’s Basilica with Tarnawa in there to add spice.

We go a different way for betting purposes though, beginning with top betting race the Portland Handicap on the St Leger card.

Saturday 11th September 2021 

1.45 Doncaster (Portland Handicap) – BOUNDLESS POWER

This brilliantly competitive 5½-furlong sprint handicap may suit a younger, improving type and there are two of that ilk to concentrate on.

Roger Teal, who won this two years ago with Oxted, fields Whenthedealisdone who fits the profile really well, but the race may yet go the way of Boundless Power for the Mick Appleby yard instead.

Since being gelded and switching from Ireland to England, Boundless Power has done really well but hasn’t been asked for his very best effort yet I would feel. He was blocked repeatedly in his run last time at Windsor when finishing a close fourth and can now produce a career best at juicy odds.

There are also a number of consistent and classy sprinters to look out for in this field, not least Jawwaal, Mondammej and last year’s winner Stone Of Destiny who may be creeping back to a workable handicap mark.

2.10 Leopardstown (Boomerang Mile – Group 2) – FEV ROVER

Another great value bet if nothing else is Richard Fahey’s Fev Rover in the Group 2 Boomerang Mile on Leopardstown’s Irish Champion Stakes card.

Thunder Moon is solid, Maker Of Kings too while the admirable and classy MacSwiney will of course be a danger once again.

The latter-named really does appear to be ground dependent however, while Fev Rover has the form in the book to do some real damage at a big price.

The filly was a Listed and Group 2 winner last year before going off favourite for a Group 1. To back that up, she was a close third in the 1000 Guineas this season before apparently hating the heavy ground in two subsequent runs.

To put her form into context; she was a genuine 1¼-length third to Mother Earth in the Guineas who is a short-priced favourite for a Group 1 on this same card, making her price look a little silly for this race.

3.00 Doncaster (Park Stakes – Group 2) – LANEQASH

The Park Stakes is yet another strong Group 2 over seven furlongs – isn’t it about time in Britain we had at least one Group 1 over this trip for those who are no longer juveniles?

In any event, the race itself should be a belter. Glorious Journey is rock-solid yet again and rates as the main danger to the selection, while the pick’s fellow Shadwell-owned Danyah can also make the frame.

Laneqash however should prove to be the class act. I always thought from his juvenile days he was a Group 1 winner in the making, and expected him before a setback to be either a classic contender or one for the Commonwealth Cup.

Instead, he’s here at an intermediate distance. Over the same trip, he was an excellent staying-on second to Sacred in the Hungerford Stakes after ten months off and assuming the race has sharpened him up rather than bounced him back, he should be too good on this occasion.

5.10 Doncaster (Handicap) – IRISH ADMIRAL

In an unusually strong one-mile handicap to finish a card there are a number of horses to keep an eye on not just for today, but for the near future too.

Cruyff Turn is one, Dance Fever is another, but the two that stand out for me are Godolphin’s Royal Fleet and Sheikh Ahmed’s Irish Admiral.

Three-year-old Royal Fleet heads the market overnight. Charlie Appleby’s runner won his first three races before being turned over last time and is clearly heading in the right direction.

Off a mark of 100 he’s still potentially well handicapped, but he may find it hard to fend off Irish Admiral now they appear to have found the key to the ex-Irish trained runner.

William Haggas sent this four-year-old to York at the start of the season following a successful stable debut, but despite travelling easily the best in the field a couple from home his run faded out late on over the mile-and-a-quarter.

Learning all the time how to ride him and over which trip, he failed a number of times but was very good at Redcar last time and so despite a small rise in the weights another win is very much on the cards soon and hopefully in this race.

Sunday 12th September 2021 

2.55 Curragh (Flying Five Stakes – Group 1) – WINTER POWER

By my reckoning the market may well have called this race right going into the weekend.

Dragon Symbol is a classy and tough young sprinter whose rating of 115 looks just about right, while ahead of him in the betting is last year’s winner and Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint champ Glass Slippers who can go well once again.

Topping the lot however is recent Nunthorpe Stakes heroine Winter Power and really there is no reason she should not be able to put her best foot forward one more time.

Having won three of her four races this season – or every time she’s run at York – some will say she is course dependent but that’s not true.

This flying filly has also won at Newmarket, Ayr and Redcar with the Curragh holding no fears for her. A repeat of her Nunthorpe and Westow Stakes performances in particular should see her home here for another Group 1 victory.

4.05 Curragh (National Stakes – Group 1) – NATIVE TRAIL

Point Lonsdale of Aidan O’Brien’s yard is not only a short-priced favourite for this race, but he also dominates the early markets for both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby next year and that’s not something to be taken lightly at all.

He’s very good, there’s little doubt about that, and if he wins again here that’s fair enough and he can be called a real juvenile star for sure.

That being said, this race looks sharper than ideal on paper for him and so the step forward many expect may not necessarily be forthcoming.

Native Trail on the other hand really needs this, with Charlie Appleby having done so well in this event with Quorto, Pinatubo and Master Of The Seas in the last three years.

The good looking Superlative Stakes winner is taken to improve enough to trouble the favourite here for Godolphin and true big-race jockey William Buick, with Ebro River no forlorn hope either for fellow raiders Hugo Palmer and James Doyle.

Saturday 4th & Sunday 5th September 2021: Time to Get Creative in Sprint Cup

It’s Sprint Cup Day on Saturday, with top-notch July Cup winner Starman looking to confirm his Champion Sprinter title following his successes at York and Newmarket.

On Sunday the very classy Baaeed looks to land his first Group 1 over in France, while around Britain there is some excellent support action across both codes.

We’re off to Haydock first, backing a potentially very classy juvenile to do the business at Listed level.

Saturday 4th September 2021

1.15 Haydock (Ascendant Stakes - Listed Race) - HAFIT

Charlie Appleby, who if he hadn’t before has this season proved exactly why the now world-leading Godolphin operation retains him as their no.1 trainer, has another winning chance here.

So too does William Buick, the rider along with Oisin Murphy who probably have pulled clear from the rest as a duo, with Haafit the young colt set to have him in the winners’ enclosure again.

Haafit made an excellent winning debut on the July Course over seven furlongs last month. He saw the trip out very well up the hill that day, the runner-up has won since and it’s clear there is plenty more to come from him over this distance.

The 2.1 million-guinea purchase by Dubawi should be all the rage near race time in the ring too.

Power Of Beauty looks a strong enough rival, but he chased home the very good Albahr last time of Appleby and Godolphin’s, meaning the Boys in Blue have a very good line on the form and therefore of what’s expected from their runner.

2.20 Haydock (Handicap) - VALLEY FORGE

This is a smallish but high-quality 1m6f handicap for the three-year-olds, one in which likely market leader Valley Forge holds an outstanding winning chance.

Valley Forge, trained by the excellent Andrew Balding for George Strawbridge, is now on a hat-trick after a third, a second, a good win at Ffos Las and an excellent success in the Melrose Handicap over this trip at York.

He’s on a roll alright, remains lightly raced and clearly progressive with undoubtedly at least one more race of this nature in him before the end of the season.

Up against him the chief rivals appear to be Praiano, who is likely to be supported on the day, and Vino Victrix who has a solid form chance but it could be another good day for the reliable and talented David Probert in the saddle.

3.10 Ascot (Lavazza Stakes Handicap) - ALFAADHEL

The upper end of the betting market for this valuable and attractive 1m4f handicap is a very solid one indeed.

Wahraan has won two of his last three for Sir Michael Stoute, Chalk Stream is on a hat-trick for the Queen and William Haggas, and Alfaadhel is another dual winner in 2021 for Roger Varian and Shadwell.

Preference here is for the latter named of that trio. Alfaadhel took the eye when winning his novice race at Chester back in May, and he has gone on to do well since.

He was a good winner at Lingfield on the all-weather, while last time out he was a fine staying-on second at Glorious Goodwood.

The style of both his Chester victory and latest run over a mile and a quarter suggest this trip is fine for him, in fact more improvement could well be forthcoming from a young horse who has certainly not reached his ceiling yet.

Wahraan is naturally respected, while not only Chalk Stream but the solid Irish Legend can also mount major challenges up the straight.

3.30 Haydock (Sprint Cup - Group 1) - CREATIVE FORCE

The betting market for the huge Group 1, six-furlong sprint really revolves around Starman.

Ed Walker’s four-year-old was admittedly very, very good in winning the July Cup at Newmarket and wants the ground reasonably quick, but at these odds he can be taken on.

A touch unlucky in behind Starman at HQ was Creative Force for the all-star Godolphin, Appleby and Buick team. An improving sprinter-cum-seven-furlong type, Creative Force won the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot in June from a better-fancied stablemate despite the very soft ground and being held rather wide out on the wing.

Only a three-year-old with five wins from 8, the son of Dubawi is getting there all the time and is good value to put it up to the favourite.

Starman remains the main danger after his tough and classy wins in the Duke of York Stakes and July Cup, while Charlie Hills’ Garrus is no forlorn hope at a big price after a fine win recently in a French Group 3.

3.45 Ascot (Handicap) - BAASHIR

This is a high quality seven-furlong race, but it’s one in which the upper end of the market is made up by those in form, yet arguably handicapped just about up to their best.

What makes the selection interesting, Baashir, is that he’s a four-year-old, is lightly raced, is back over his favoured trip and ground and is clearly still improving overall.

I say overall as he has one of those ‘in and out’ sort of profiles. He tends to run to his best, then perform under-par, before running to his best once again next time out.

That’s not the reason for the selection of course, but I’d be more than happy for the pattern to continue now as I’m sure would Charlie Hills, Dane O’Neill and Shadwell.

Up against him Top Secret, Via Serendipity and Documenting are all interesting to varying degrees but will hopefully be playing for places.

Sunday 5th September 2021

4.50 York (Handicap) - DUTY OF CARE

I fancied only one horse on Sunday, and hopefully it’s worth the wait in this decent 1m2f handicap on the Knavesmire. 

Duty Of Care is the one, a rather nice three-year-old son of Kingman for Juddmonte and Sir Michael Stoute who has Richard Kingscote up top.

He won with more in hand than the bare result would suggest at Pontefract last time on the track, and looks sure to give a lot more now with the extra pace a better race and more runners so often brings.

As for rivals; Moktasaab and Pivoine demand obvious respect and are given as the main dangers.