Friday 16th & Saturday 17th December 2022 - Harrovian to Teach Them a Lesson

The all-weather Flat races often provide us with plenty of good betting opportunities on these pages. 

So, while it is a shame the weather is claiming the big National Hunt meetings at the moment, it doesn’t stop us getting stuck into the bookies once again this weekend.

Friday 16th December 2022

2.35 Southwell (Handicap) – SO GRATEFUL

On paper, this five-furlong Class 4 sprint is a close one with a number of horses in with each-way shouts.

It’ll be interesting to see whether Stone Of Destiny can improve on his second start for his new trainer, Lad Roca Del Fuego, Twilight Madness, Pockley, Double Dealing and Bang On The Bell are all solid enough too.

Of a little more interest is three-year-old Murbih at a big price. He won on the Tapeta two outings ago and can yet improve, with a line being confidently drawn through his last run.

Even more likely to improve though is Michael and David Easterby’s four-year-old So Grateful. His performances at Southwell, Newcastle and Wolverhampton offer plenty of encouragement with this switch back down to five furlongs a definite positive.

3.45 Southwell (Handicap) – MAKETH BELIEVETH

Over the 2-mile, 2½-furlong trip on Tapeta this race will take some getting but the increase in race distance also brings about improvement from many horses. I hope that’s the case with Maketh Believeth.

The favourite here is very likely to be Roger Teal’s Blazeon Five. He is progressive now and is looking for a hat-trick, but this is a very different test to his recent races.

Shadowfax is interesting as a lightly-raced three-year-old trained by Mick Appleby, but Galileo’s progeny doesn’t do as well as many expect on Tapeta and he may be better off at Kempton. Flint Hill is very reliable and is improving slowly over time, while there is nothing wrong with conditions either.

Maketh Believeth has the most interesting profile. A Tapeta winner and a four-year-old with lots more to give, he is now with Amy Murphy who has booked Luke Morris for the ride. The big step up to the extended 2m2f trip is a major positive in my eyes and he looks good value.

6.45 Kempton (Maiden Fillies’ Stakes) – SAPPHIRE SEAS

A look at the trainers involved and the owners’ colours being worn in this race makes you think more of a Group contest. In fact, this is simply one-mile, two-year-old fillies’ maiden but there may be some very nice types lurking in the field.

Newcomers Albany (Ralph Beckett/Kirsten Rausing) and Free Lovin’ (John & Thady Gosden/Helena Springfield) could be anything, while the experience shown by Alice Knyvet (Harry & Roger Charlton/Juddmonte) and Scenic (Ed Walker/David Ward doesn’t set the bar overly high.

Godolphin also have two fillies in the race, with the Fastnet Rock filly Magical Skies ridden by Cieren Fallon. He wears the blue cap, but William Buick has chosen Charlie Appleby’s other horse Sapphire Seas.

A Frankel/Street Cry cross, Sapphire Seas is the best-bred filly in the race and represents very powerful connections who do so well in this type of race.

7.15 Kempton (Handicap) – UNFORGOTTEN

This is a good handicap, a 0-90 over the mile. Simon & Ed Crisford’s Court Of Session remains of interest in such races, ridden this time by Harry Burns who claims 3lbs, while again we see a multiple entry from Godolphin.

Noble Order is the supposed first string. Trained by Charlie Appleby, he did well at Kempton last winter but was a disappointing 4/7 favourite on his return after a long break here last month.

He should come on for that run, but Godolphin’s John & Thady Gosden-trained Unforgotten looks even more tempting after his own enforced break.

Although it was the Tapeta he won impressively on when last seen, Unforgotten has very sound Polytrack form and there is lots of evidence in his form to suggest he comes back on a lenient mark.

Saturday 17th December 2022

12.40 Lingfield (Novice Stakes) – GOLDEN SPEECH  

There are some very interesting newcomers in this line-up.

Andrew Balding trains Siyouni colt Swordofhonor, while Ziryab is a Kingman/Galileo cross representing John & Thady Gosden and Juddmonte.

Godolphin’s Golden Speech however cannot be ignored with the hope that money for any of the newbies would force a decent price for him.

After an inauspicious start in June, this son of Dubawi ran two very solid races indeed on the turf. He separated 93-rated One Nation and 99-rated Stormbuster first, before following home subsequent Group 3 winner and Dewhurst third Nostrum, beating home the now 114-rated Arrest.

Officially, Golden Speech is rated 90 but he is most likely a 100+ horse now. He’s had a rest and been gelded and, in all truth, should be running a race that the newcomers can’t quite match up to yet.

3.00 Lingfield (Winter Oaks Trial Fillies’ Handicap) – SEA TSARINA 

This is a decent quality, tight fillies’ handicap over the mile and a quarter.

Sweet Fantasy, Tequilamockingbird, Tahasun and Queen Of Ipanema, who is looking for a six-timer for George Boughey and William Buick, are all strong on paper.

There is a lot more to come however from William Haggas’s very well-bred Sea Tsarina and she could be the one to claim the prize.

3.33 Lingfield (Quebec Stakes – Listed Race) – HARROVIAN 

A good race, one that provides an early trial for the Winter Derby apart from anything else.

In it we get to see the progressive three-year-old filly Makinmedoit who will be interesting in the market, as well as likely favourite Algiers who didn’t leave anything on the track when going for it over course and distance five weeks ago.

The Gosdens run a pair of popular six-year-olds too. I love Forest Of Dean but a fear his time is up at this level, though Harrovian ran well last time and will take a step forward. If he does, then he has a big shot at beating the market leader.

William Buick has been booked to ride the gelding who was beaten narrowly by Pyledriver last November over course and distance, as well being as a four-time winner on the turf.

Friday 9th & Saturday 10th December 2022 - Jet to Fly to Victory at Doncaster

For jumps fans it’s all about Cheltenham’s International Meeting this weekend.

The December Gold Cup and the International Hurdle are featured, while Doncaster proves some very good National Hunt back-up on Saturday.

There are some good opportunities on the Flat also, with another busy betting weekend beginning early on Friday as we head somewhat randomly to Bahrain.

Friday 9th December 2022

11.20 Bahrain (Al Muharraq Cup Handicap) – BOX TO BOX

With nothing of major interest away from Cheltenham in the jumps realm on Friday, attentions turn to the card over in Bahrain.

This 1¼-mile handicap on the turf is a decent one, certainly it’s competitive, but is full of horses who should have peaked or are confirmed to be past their best in all truth.

What’s The Story, Commonsensical, Lucander, Inigo Jones and Marie’s Diamond are all British-based horses looking to grab the £36,000 winning prize pot, but three-year-old Box To Box is the only improver who looks like he will relish the conditions.

Harry Davies rides for Hugo Palmer and it’s a big chance for this fine young jockey to get some winning international experience.

11.50 Bahrain (Al Manama Cup Handicap) – NOMADIC EMPIRE

There’s another £36,000 prize for the winner of this five-furlong sprint handicap.

While David O’Meara’s Nomadic Empire isn’t expected to reach his career highs at this stage of his career, maybe not even perhaps quite his seasonal ones, he does have enough on quicker ground at these weights to suggest he’s well in.

King Of Stars, Get It, Digital and Soldier’s Minute can make an impact most likely, though some of the contenders aren’t drawn particularly well which dampens enthusiasm a wee bit.

Saturday 10th December 2022

12.55 Doncaster (December Novices’ Chase – Grade 2) – JET PLANE

An interesting race, and as a Grade 2 you’d expect the quality to be bang on.

Mahler Mission has some questions to answer over fences but obviously has talent, Bellatrixsa gets a very handy weight allowance and Gentleman At Arms will be well fancied despite his form figures.

The one I like best however is Dan Skelton’s Jet Plane. Unlike his main rivals, he’s gone and done it over fences meaning we’re looking at real ability and not potential.

His win at Hereford recently was very easy and he has so much more than that to give, while he also stays the full trip and won’t mind the potentially quicker underfoot conditions.

1.30 Doncaster (Summit Juvenile Hurdle – Listed Race) – SCRIPWRITER 

On the face of it this juvenile race comes down to two horses – Milton Harris’s Scriptwriter and Joseph O’Brien’s Nusret.

The Irish colt won nicely on his hurdling debut and the form looks good too. He also gets a handy 5lbs from his main rival but he is set to be rather short in the betting.

Scriptwriter has also won easily not once but twice, drifting across the track last time a little and being winning better than the margin at the line suggested.

Milton Harris’s horse was also the better Flat horse by some way, so considering we know he can jump being two from two over hurdles, that Flat ability can go a long way making him the value selection.

2.19 Newcastle (Novice Stakes) – NAZYMBEK

In a one-mile novice race at Newcastle these days, there may always be a potential future star lurking.

In this race there has already been solid form shown by Wonder Legend, James Ferguson’s runner being a Sea The Stars who should appreciate the Tapeta test, and especially by the Crisford’s Itricacy who was second on a similar surface on debut at Wolverhampton.

He sets a tough standard for the others to aim at that’s for sure, but Nazymek really stands out on paper and if opening up at a reasonable price may be worth taking a chance on.

This colt is by Kingman out of a Galileo mare. Beautifully bred, he is in the Derby next June while he and jockey Jack Mitchell have been sent here alone by Roger Varian who appears to think he can make a big debut.

4.00 Newcastle (Nursery Handicap) – CARIAD ANGEL

In this six-furlong nursery the majority of the market is likely to be taken up by Pocket The Packet.

Already a course and distance winner twice over, George Boughey’s gelding has won another pair of races in the past couple of weeks, including on December 7th at Lingfield.

His trainer does this quite a lot, but it doesn’t always result in the horses holding their form every time. He’s been consistent but not hugely progressive, so at these weights he could be vulnerable.

With that in mind I really like the improvement shown on this surface by Karl Burke’s Cariad Angel. Second to a William Haggas horse last time here, he can better that now and looks fairly well in under top jock Danny Tudhope.

4.50 Wolverhampton (Handicap) – ABBEY HEIGHTS

George Boughey runs another busy horse here, this time Pocket The Profit. Newcastle winner Vespasian is interesting back on Tapeta after a gelding operation, while Ahlawi did well to score last time and is another to consider.

Based on form, speed and potential, the one to side with looks to be Daniel & Claire Kubler’s Abbey Heights, ridden by Luke Morris.

They have the right man on board if things get tight here, but all in all there appears to be enough in the Dark Angel gelding’s profile to think he can back up his course and distance win in November.

Unlike many sprint handicappers, including a couple of his main rivals here today, he has been given enough time to recover and go again which is also an advantage.

5.20 Wolverhampton (Fillies’ Novice Stakes) – TARJAMAH 

This is a novice race for the two-year-old fillies and there are potentially one or two nice ones in it for the future.

Tarjamah is the best of them, at least potentially, this beautifully bred Shadwell filly representing the powerful John & Thady Gosden yard who we know of course are so good with their better fillies.

She has targets to aim at set by Nakano and Marie Laveau which probably mean a debut run in the early to mid-80’s is required, something she is more than likely fully capable of which means she rates a bet at anything above 5/2.

Friday 2nd & Saturday 3rd December 2022: Find the Way at Chepstow

It’s Tingle Creek weekend at Sandown, the Surrey track hosting a Grade 2 race on Friday and two Grade 1’s on Saturday.

The big betting race is at Aintree, the £150,000 Becher Chase being well supported while there are also good cards at Wetherby and Chepstow, the latter staging the Welsh Grand National Trial.

There’s impressive prize money offer on the Flat at Newcastle on Friday and at Wolverhampton on Saturday, but we begin out betting weekend at Exeter on Friday.

Friday 2nd December 2022

1.25 Exeter (Novices’ Handicap Hurdle) – HORN CAPE

This is a trappy race on the face of it, with an obvious favourite in the hat-trick seeking topweight Blenkinsopp.

We know that JP McManus and Nicky Henderson will have expected much more from their Horn Cape though and it’s likely we’ll see a big improvement from him.

He was pulled up on his first hurdle start, lost two places on the run-in on his second and then lost second last time on the run-in at Kempton. His form isn’t great, but if you look close enough it’s getting significantly better with each run and so he may be good value in the market in a generally weak race off a mark of only 103.

2.20 Sandown (Winter Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 2) – MAXIMILIAN 

On known evidence, not that there’s a whole lot of it admittedly, it could be close between Henry’s Friend, Man At Work and Henri The Second here.

With luck though they’ll only be fighting for minor honours as Maximilian looks to be clear of them and can score over once hurdles again.

Donald McCain’s six-year-old is arguably a little stronger than his rivals and his form beats theres so far, while this is the main reason top jock Brian Hughes is making the trip south.

2.55 Sandown (Handicap Chase) – CORRIGEEN ROCK

A number of these are going the wrong way by the look of it, so while Corrigeen Rock didn’t with a lot to spare last time, he and solid topweight Heartbreak Kid may have an advantage.

Lucinda Russell’s Corrigeen Rock is only a five-year-old and has had enough time to recover from his winning mission at Kelso, so he can continue his progression and score again.

Heartbreak Kid is next, while Rose Sea Has at least boasts consistent speed which bodes well for this race.

4.10 Newcastle (Novice Stakes) – MACHO MANIA

Newcastle’s nine-race card boasts over £100,000 in prize money on Friday night. Assuming a reasonable price is offered, Hugo Palmer’s Macho Mania is the one in the second division of this six-furlong novice race.

Heartlander may go well on debut, Deepdale ran well here on debut and De Bruyne may appreciate this. Macho Mania’s debut was decent at Kempton however, natural progression would see him go close and his sire’s progeny have gone OK on Tapeta and on dirt.

4.45 Newcastle (Handicap) – SPIRIT OF NGURU

Cieren Fallon makes the trip up to Gosforth Park for his and William Haggas’s one and only runner on the card.

Their Spirit of Nguru has strong Polytrack form and soft ground form on the turf, is a three-year-old and an overall improver and should go very well on this surface.

Raatea, based on his summer win here, could be well off at the weights, Bass Player has made some eye-catching runs and Documenting is sold but not progressive as a nine-year-old.

5.45 Newcastle (Conditions Stakes) – LOGO HUNTER

This five-furlong sprint is a £30,000 contest and a qualifier for the £1 million All Weather Championships Finals Day next April.

Art Power is a standout name. His Curragh form is pretty much Group 1 standard, but he rarely runs to that level, we can’t know exactly what level he’ll run to here and he is penalised 5lbs.

I wanted to back Logo Hunter at Lingfield last time but he had travel problems. He should love this race, is nicely drawn and Seamie Heffernan even flies over to take the ride.

Saturday 3rd December 2022

12.55 Aintree (Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle – Listed Race) – ISALINE DE CHANDOU 

As usual there are a number of French recruits in this race, but the contest may go to one still trained there in the shape of Isaline De Chandou.

Brian Hughes has been booked to ride the filly; one whose French form is better than others in this contest. Yes, she’s penalised, but on a line through some of the horses she’s beaten she could handle that penalty and more.

1.37 Chepstow (Welsh Grand National Trial – Handicap Chase) – WAYFINDER

Four stood out against the field in what is usually an important staying handicap chase. But Secret Investor has been off 650 days and never was at his best on softer ground, while both Secret Reprieve and Elegant Escape are regressing.

Wayfinder on the other hand is going the right way, stays well and has been in the first two on 6 of 9 chase starts. While some horses don’t handle Chepstow, this fellow loves it and can add another win on his favourite course for Rebecca Curtis.

2.20 Sandown (Handicap Hurdle) – LOVE ENVOI

Although beaten when last seen, Dawn Run winner Love Envoi remains very progressive overall and can handle topweight in this race to see off the likes of Playful Saint, Hermes Boy and Homme Public.

Jonathan Burke is on board for trainer Harry Fry.

3.15 Aintree (Handicap Hurdle) – WALKING ON AIR

Nicky Henderson’s Walking On Air is another horse I wanted to back recently, this time when he was pulled out due to ‘good’ ground (no shock) at Newbury last month.

He hasn’t raced for a while and was pulled up on his second hurdles start, but was extremely impressive before that and in fact we have no idea where his ceiling is. What we do know, is that it is some way above the rating of 132 he has here.

Harbour Lake and Langer Dan were next on the list.

7.20 Wolverhampton (Handicap) – BASE NOTE

This is a decent mile and a half handicap on the Tapeta.

King Of The South keeps getting the job done on this surface but never by much and he’s up another 2lbs in the handicap. Pirate King is better on Polytrack but does have William Buick on board, while Outbox is a start but I fear he’s being a little flogged now.

Three-year-old runner Base Note however is an easy course and distance winner around here, will appreciate the return to Tapeta and may be well clear of his handicap mark on it.

Friday 25th & Saturday 26th November 2022: Prosch to Bosh Them

This Saturday sees the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle take place at Newcastle, part of the hurdling Triple Crown and now featuring the exciting Constitution Hill.

He is long odds on for this and, as a word of caution; just about all modern winners of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle who have remained over the smaller objects go backwards after winning that race. At least on the numbers and at least at first.

If he does that, the door could be open for Epatante who has done it all before including at Newcastle.

In any event, we begin our betting weekend on Friday at Newbury.

Friday 25th November 2022 

1.20 Newbury (Novices’ Hurdle) – RUSSIAN RULER

The official going description at Newbury is ‘good’ for Friday’s racing. Nobody has told Nicky Henderson that, clearly, as he still intends to run Russian Ruler among others.

In this novices’ hurdle the early favourite is Stay Away Fay. He won a point-to-point and has been sent to Paul Nicholls, but there’s very little to go on and what we have got doesn’t entitle him to be market leader.

That pushes Russian Ruler’s price out and he is the clear pick of those with experience over hurdles, so rates a bet on the grounds of value.

He is a winner and he was improving fast last season, being sent into Grade 2 company at one stage, and now he’s back after a break he may be tough to beat.

1.55 Newbury (Berkshire Novices’ Chase – Grade 2) – CAMPROND

When only glancing at this race you would, like many punters and the bookmakers, come to the conclusion that Stage Star is well clear and is not worth opposing. A closer look however reveals something a little different.

Paul Nicholls’ runner did win well on his chasing debut, beating West Cork by 13 lengths and he can go on from that too.

The level we expect him to reach is something around the 150-mark, which doesn’t make him unbeatable where rival Camprond is concerned.

Rated 147 over hurdles, he was second-favourite behind McFabulous on his chase debut, who won and is leaving his own 153 rating behind. He unshipped his rider at the first however. That’s not ideal, but he’s priced accordingly and it’s easy to see him getting to that 150 level or above, while his hurdle form also gives hope to him having superior pace around this track on good ground.

2.30 Newbury (Handicap Chase) – THE WIDOW MAKER

Market-wise this is a very tight handicap chase indeed and that’s something that also plays out in a lot of the numbers. Standing tall at the top of the rankings however for me is The Widow Maker and it may well be that he’s the outsider of the field.

The eight-year-old has a nice light weight to carry and is certainly better than his current handicap mark. Joe Tizzard’s horse wasn’t great on his seasonal debut, but that’s nothing to worry about at this stage.

At least he’s race fit now and before that he’d won at Exeter and finished third of six in a Grade 1 at Aintree no less. He has also shown the speed to win on good ground over two miles.

He gets the nod over Paint The Dream, Killer Clown, Caribean Boy and Beakstown though it is close in behind.

3.05 Newbury (Long Distance Hurdle – Grade 2) – PROSCHEMA 

This race could go a long way towards sorting out the pack in what looks like an open Stayers’ Hurdle race this season.

Champ is obviously quality and is second on my list, though I feel he is going ever so slightly backwards and at nearly eleven years old and making his seasonal debut, it may well be he really feels this.

Public horse Paisley Park is simply wonderful but is highly unlikely to reach his former heights on this ground, while a better bet for the forecast is perhaps Dashel Drasher.

Last year’s winner Thomas Darby is another to consider, but he was put in his place by Proschema in the West Yorkshire Hurdle last time and he shouldn’t be turning that form around.

I’ve always been a big believer in Proschema as a hurdler, and as a staying one he’s found his calling. He’s improving fast, has all the attributes needed for this event and can now announce himself as a real Stayers’ Hurdle contender with another Grade 2 win.

Saturday 27th November 2022

1.35 Newcastle (Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase) – SHANTOU LUCKY

A tight race, one that may take some getting if Newcastle do produce the proper jump racing ground that they’ve promised all week.

This is a three-miler for the novices’, one in which the Irish trained Shantou Lucky has travelled a good way to take part and he’s the best of them for me.

Based on his second at Perth behind Ubetya, allied with what was a sharp rate of progression at the time over fences, he could be pretty well handicapped in this sphere so gets the vote.

3.05 Newbury (Coral Gold Cup – Premier Handicap Chase) – REMASTERED

As always, the race formerly known as the Hennessy has attracted a very strong, very tight and very competitive field. There are all sorts of horses we could mention, but the focus should be on Remastered for betting purposes.

David Pipe’s nine-year-old, who is at a perfect stage of his career to take this on, ran in a hurdle race last year before falling when well placed to challenge in this race.

He was more impressive this time around in his hurdle prep, is a better animal now, and is very well in at the weights so can be backed at reasonable odds. Lord Accord, Le Milos and Threeunderthrufive were next on the list.

3.25 Newcastle (Rehearsal Handicap Chase – Premier Handicap) – INTO OVERDRIVE 

Representing last year’s form are Aye Right and Dingo Dollar, both horses also being race fit and in form.

Much of the talk will be about Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival winner L’Homme Presse, who missed his last engagement and comes here for better ground.

We’ve already seen Bravemansgame win the Charlie Hall and Protektorat win the Betfair, now it’s this fella’s chance to make a mark on the Cheltenham Gold Cup market.

At the weights however, I reckon Mark Walford’s Into Overdrive could be the one. The big improver in the race, the seven-year-old stays well and has won his last four chases. He may still be ahead of the handicapper.

Saturday 19th November 2022: Pro to Give It a Go in Betfair Chase

Constitution Hill makes his comeback this weekend in the Coral Hurdle which will be a fascinating watch, but watch is all we should do at the odds given.

Other Cheltenham hopefuls are also running, including returning heroes A Plus Tard and Edwardstone, with Haydock and Ascot sharing Saturday’s limelight.

As a sidenote; watch out for the betting and subsequent performances of Tagabawa and Isle Of Jura on Saturday evening at Wolverhampton, two New Approach colts making their debuts for Charlie Appleby.

12.10 Haydock (Newton Novices’ Hurdle – Listed Race) – SIZING POTTSIE

With Paul Nicholls in such rare form his Tahmuras may take centre stage in the betting, at least we hope he will. Harry Cobden’s ride won easily last time for sure, but his form isn’t exactly head and shoulders above.

Twinjets is interesting as is Snake Roll, but Sizing Potties is the most interesting runner in the field.

As an eight-year-old he has more experience than the others and he’s back in this sphere (and country) having gone chasing with Jessica Harrington.

On his return he was a very easy winner at Ayr which should have primed him to get back to his best form, a level that would be too good for the others if he can achieve it.

1.10 Lingfield (Fillies’ Handicap) – KIRILENKO

The bulk of this field is very hard to separate; Queen Of Burgundy, Granary Queen, Victoria Grove, Lady Eros, Night Battle and Thebeautifulgame all being in with place chances.

The standout is most definitely Kirilenko however, who appears to have been rather leniently treated by the handicapper.

As well as having a mark we think is a little light, Sir Michael Stoute’s filly has superior speed to the others, is well draw and has handled both quick turf and a Polytrack surface well. One last thing in her favour is the booking William Buick who flies straight back from Bahrain on Friday.

1.30 Ascot (Mares’ Handicap Hurdle) – TERRESITA

Four of the six runners in this field are relatively close together on form, something that is reflected in the overnight odds.

Coquelicot, Victoria’s Peak, Glimpse Of Gala and Terresita will all be on bet slips in a race that will knock out many a placepot coupon.

The mare that just sticks her head above the parapet however is Terresita. Aidan Coleman rides for Lucy Wadham on a mare who’s won three from seven on varying ground and who has the capacity to remain ahead of the handicapper.

2.05 Ascot (1965 Chase – Grade 2) – HITMAN

This race often proves to be very informative with chases of varying distances in the spring in mind; Wayward Lad, Red Marauder, Albertas Run, Master Minded, Al Ferof, Politologue and Cyrname having all won it.

This time around, we have a long odds-on favourite in the shape of L’Homme Presse and he has been very impressive to date.

His biggest rival is Paul Nicholls’ Hitman who is better than what he’s shown so far, and at the weights is about on a par with L’Homme Presse in these conditions.

The crucial factor is speed and I reckon he has more of it than L’Homme Presse, something that will be crucial in this race.

Hitman is entered at Haydock as well and that was to be his first preference, however there is a strong chance he will be rerouted here due to the weather and that could be a smart move.

2.25 Haydock (Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle – Premier Handicap) – COMPLETE UNKNOWN

This fourteen-runner handicap field is a close one at first glance, just as you’d expect for one of the bigger betting races of the month.

Both Wholestone and Good Risk It All are high on the list after their race at Carlisle late last month, while Brinkley can also go well. Most of the money has been for Might I who also has a place chance.

The one to be on at the odds however is Complete Unknown. Paul Nicholls is in great form and his terrific season can continue in this valuable race.

Complete Unknown has low mileage and is improving. He is ready to head back up to this three-mile trip, but the most crucial point is that he has shown the most toe in genuinely soft ground which will count for a lot with the forecast the way it is.

3.00 Haydock (Betfair Chase – Grade 1) – PROTEKTORAT

Backing anything in this field against last year’s winner and Gold Cup hero A Plus Tard requires Henry De Bromhead’s star to underperform.

That remains entirely possible however and he is still long odds-on at the time of writing, creating opportunities elsewhere.

It was thought during the week that he may not run if the ground gets too soft and the rain has in fact arrived. His performance may yet still be good enough, but it’s likely to be some way behind his Gold Cup winning level which opens the door for Protektorat who should love underfoot conditions.

3.15 Ascot (Hurst Park Handicap Chase) – THYME HILL

Thyme Hill is properly on track in his chasing career now after winning a good race over course and distance three weeks ago.

He won that with more authority than the distance suggests, his overall profile being sufficiently upward in its trajectory for punters to be able to go in with confidence again.

His main rival is probably Boothill, though Thyme Hill has more speed, while Third Time Lucki, So Scottish and Arkle winner Edwardstone were all considered too.

3.35 Haydock (Handicap Chase) – FONTAINE COLLONGES

At around 5/1 at the time of writing, Venetia Williams’ seven-year-old Fontaine Collonges looks good value in these tough conditions to continue what was some sharp progression and win her seasonal debut.

She’s been off the track a while but should be OK to go now, she gets through this sort of ground very well and there’s lots in her profile to suggest she is very well handicapped.

She can get the better of Houston Texas who is another moving up the ranks, while in behind Lord Du Mesnil and JP McManus’s Easysland and Musical Slave may be battling on.

Saturday 12th November 2022 - Boilshoi Ballet to Dance All Over Them

The main focus this weekend is Cheltenham’s November Meeting and there some nice opportunities there. It’s Paddy Power Gold Cup Day which is huge business, but here we concentrate on matters elsewhere round the country.

Lingfield hosts a good Flat card featuring a valuable handicap and two Listed races, all of which we’re involved in, while up at Wetherby over the jumps there is also some fine action.

We have three selections from each track on Saturday beginning with a novice event in Yorkshire.

12.43 Wetherby (Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase) – MORIKO DE VASSY 

Having been considered a potential graded horse over hurdles not long ago, should Moriko De Vassy jump well enough on his chasing debut then it would seem he’d have a little in hand on the handicap.

Daryl Jacob’s mount will be loving conditions at the Yorkshire track and is very good value in what is a small field, with Notlingtillmay also capable while Zacony Rebel and Minella Plus may vie for favouritism.

1.18 Wetherby (Handicap Hurdle) – ONAGATHERINGSTORM

Cheltenham trainer Fergal O’Brien has sent Onagatheringstorm to Wetherby and he was also quick to book top man Brian Hughes for the ride. The combination may well be very popular but at the time of writing are surprisingly not favourites to win this event.

On his return after a wind op and a break (off since February), Onagatheringstorm should have finished second at Cheltenham in October but ran out of steam and dropped to third going up the hill. That still represents good form in truth.

He will be all the better for that run now and can beat not only that finish, but his past performances too which makes him a strong prospect in this event.

Rafferty’s Return provides some good opposition if he’s fit enough first time up this season, while young hurdler Iroko is of course of interest but at the moment he doesn’t look that well handicapped coming out of juvenile races, although time will naturally tell on that score.

2.00 Lingfield (Handicap) – MONTATHAM

Although it could be close between the three-year-old Tacarib Bay, Hafeet Alain, Excel Power and Montatham, the speed that the last-named horse is capable of could be the deciding factor on this track.

Already taken into account is the slight regression that is possible overall for Montatham’s form given his age, though it speaks volumes that during an era in which Shadwell have sold so many horses they chose to keep this one on at six years old and as a gelding too.

After a year off the track, William Haggas’ runner returned last month on softer than ideal ground and ran well enough, putting him spot-on for this task. He has the speed and the class to take this down and is value to do so.

2.28 Wetherby (Introductory Hurdle) – MATATA

This race is all about possibilities, progress and untapped potential so it would be unwise to try to base your selections too much on recent form of any kind.

Fruit N Nut’s form is best for what it’s worth, but he’s been away for over 400 days and won’t necessarily be better than some of the younger hurdlers he now comes up against.

One of those is four-year-old Matata and we have no idea what level he can reach. Bought by top connections after a taking point-to-point win, he led all the way on his hurdling debut four weeks ago and was never troubled at all.

The numbers tell us that it was a 7½-length win and we can guess at what handicap mark he’d be given but in reality, it was a light training session for him as we was never challenged at all and he’s capable of very much better.

He’s the one with the most potential so gets the vote at reasonable odds, ahead of the aforementioned Fruit N Nut.

2.35 Lingfield (Golden Rose Stakes – Listed Race) – LOGO HUNTER 

This isn’t the most valuable race you’ll see on the Flat, but it is a Listed event and also a fast-track qualifier for the very valuable All Weather Championships Finals at Newcastle next April.

Some of the main contenders here are rock-solid, but they are somewhat old timers now. There may not be a whole lot to choose from nowadays between Harry’s Bar, Summerghand and Judicial in fact but they’ll all have their supporters which should balance the betting market nicely.

The four-year-old Logo Hunter on the other hand is just getting going. One of his better performances was when he chased home the very good Manaccan last time over five furlongs at Dundalk and he’s on the up.

It seems on that and other evidence that he’ll stretch out much better over this extra furlong, so with the trip seen as ideal and the fact he is proven on Polytrack he has an obvious winning chance.

3.10 Lingfield (Churchill Stakes – Listed Race) – BOLSHOI BALLET

Another Listed race and another fast-track qualifier, this time over a mile and a quarter.

Of the two John & Thady Gosden horses I like Forest Of Dean more than Harrovian now he’s not penalised on the all-weather which has been his undoing before.

Algiers was impressive at York but he’s been good so far on dirt and on softer ground so this may prove to be a bit quick. Missed The Cut is capable of winning this, but I’m not convinced by Quality Road progeny on this surface, especially with Sea The Stars in his pedigree.

Aidan O’Brien’s Bolshoi Ballet could be the one. Famed for going off 11/8 favourite for the 2021 Derby, he is still a colt at four and could be seen as valuable by Coolmore.

He’s had his problems but he’s also put in some big performances, especially abroad in group/grade races and he wants it quick so this could be the perfect scenario for him.

Friday 4th & Saturday 5th November 2022: Breeders’ Cup Special

Though there’s Flat and jumping domestic action, the main focus for us is the 2022 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland, one of the homes of horse racing.

Friday 4th November 2022

7.00 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint – Grade 1) – MISCHIEF MAGIC

Home runners American Apple, Lady Hollywood, Tyler’s Tribe and Speed Boat Beach could be competitive, while Wesley Ward’s Love Reigns is probably the best of them and has experience against UK runners.

The Platinum Queen has been admirable but isn’t much better than her fellow British runners and is drawn out wide, while Persian Force is consistent but not massively progressive.

Dramatised can be feared for the Karl Burke team from the 4 gate, but way overpriced next door in five is Charlie Appleby’s Mischief Magic.

He’s been really impressive at times this season and was fancied to win the Group 1 Middle Park only for the race not to suit.

7.40 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – Grade 1) – CHOP CHOP

Raging Sea, Leave No Trace and Grand Love are drawn wide and it appears the form of the Alcibiades Stakes over course and distance is the line to concentrate on.

In that race, the consistent Wonder Wheel made all but only just held on from the fast-improving Chop Chop who had to come from the back. She can continue her sharp upward trajectory and land this race for Brad Cox.

8.20 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Grade 1) – MEDITATE

With form, speed and breeding all taken into account this does look like a good opportunity for Aidan O’Brien’s filly Meditate to score despite being parked in gate 10.

She’s already stayed seven furlongs at the Curragh so I’ve no issue with going an extended mile around these bends, while she also possesses the pace needed to kick on when necessary.

Her form is simply better than that of the others and she can win ahead of Spirit Gal and Midnight Mile.

9.40 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – Grade 1) – SILVER KNOTT

Charlie Appleby has an excellent record in this race, winning it with Modern Games last year who we’ll see in the Mile.

His Silver Knott is a proper type. This year’s impressive Solario winner got the better of a very strong Autumn Stakes field last time out and if not receiving bad luck, should take care of this bunch no problem. Victoria Road is next on the list.

Saturday 5th November 2022

12.50 Doncaster (Wentworth Stakes – Listed Race) – ART POWER

At five and as a full horse, Art Power is still getting better. He doesn’t put his very best in every single time, but he’s saved it for this sort of ground including when demolishing a good Group 3 field at the Curragh.

Some haven’t taken that at face value, the official handicapper certainly hasn’t, and this horse is penalised too, but using certain metrics and on a line through the horses he beat, that was a Group 1 performance. He may be too good for Commanche Falls, Rhythm Master and Chipstead.

1.30 Doncaster (Gillies Fillies’ Stakes – Listed Race) – LIFE OF DREAMS

A good number of these may appreciate the very wet ground, but it should also present no problems for Charlie Appleby’s Life Of Dreams who is heading the right way and should be a sound middle-distance Group filly. Sweet Believer and Moon De Vega are next best.

3.13 Doncaster (November Handicap) – ISRAR

This is a very competitive race. With all things taken into consideration, Nathaniel Greene, Metier, Cemhaan and First Officer are pretty hard to split. Israr however stands taller.

The London Gold Cup produces so many future Group winners and I still think Israr will be one of them.

Not only is he of that ability and certainly better than his current mark of 106, but he actually won ever so easily over this course and distance two weeks ago and in heavy ground too, so there’s nothing not to like.

3.50 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint – Grade 1) – GOODNIGHT OLIVE

As a three-year-old Echo Zulu remains capable while Slammed, Obligatory and Ce Ce have all shown terrific ability.

The selection however is Chad Brown’s Goodnight Olive. She’s unbeaten in five now, has reached a level good enough to be competitive and crucially is still improving unlike many others.

4.29 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – Grade 1) – CREATIVE FORCE

Despite the level of attention placed upon the wonderful Highfield Princess and likely favourite Golden Pal, this is actually a very competitive sprint race.

Flotus still remains capable of landing a big one while Wesley Ward’s Campanelle is also a contender. Charlie Appleby’s Creative Force and Naval Crown have been hard to split over the past couple of years, both when you take a close look continue to improve in fast conditions and both are capable in this race.

With Naval Crown stuck out wide, William Buick riding Creative Force and him still being a double-figure price, he is the one to be with.

5.10 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – Grade 1) – LAUREL RIVER

Bill Mott and Godolphin’s Cody’s Wish is well fancied, but although his trainer may not be the most popular winner here, Laurel River looks top class and may edge this one. Bob Baffert’s four-year-old Juddmonte colt has been outstanding out in California and may just be too good for them.

6.30 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Sprint – Grade 1) – ALOHA WEST

Connections of Jackie’s Warrior will be looking for him to go out on a high, but the odds-on favourite was well beaten in this race last year, is arguably regressing and is drawn a little wide.

Wesley Ward’s runners are often overrated by British bookies and I think that’s been the case again with Kimari, while American Theorem has excellent form with Laurel River and this is his trip.

Strangely last year’s winner at Del Mar, Aloha West, has been overlooked and is very good value to win it again having recovered his form with a Listed win at Churchill Downs.

7.10 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Mile – Grade 1) – MODERN GAMES

Kinross is admirable but the mile and his wide draw are against him. Annapolis can be very good so is a danger, but Modern Games is head and shoulders above this bunch as long as he hasn’t had too challenging a season.

What he did in the French Guineas, the French Derby and the QEII are all bonuses. This is really his territory. He was a classy winner of the Juvenile Turf at last year’s meeting and was scintillating in the Woodbine Mile in September.

7.55 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Distaff – Grade 1) – MALATHAAT

The last two fillies to have won the Kentucky Oaks for us, Malathaat and Secret Oath, are in the line-up and both can go well.

Malathaat wasn’t ready for this race last year as a three-year-old but she sure is now. She’s less flashy than Nest, but gets the job done and is still improving. Nest is a danger, as is old rival Clairiere.

8.40 Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Turf – Grade 1) – NATIONS PRIDE

This race marks the end of a fantastic and high-earning career for Mishriff. Aidan O’Brien sends Broome and Stone Age while War Like Gossess is the best of the Americans. Despite having no Adayar, Yibir or Hurricane Lane, Charlie Appleby still has the top two in the market!

Don’t underestimate Rebel’s Romance, but Nations Pride is a genuine Group 1 horse and can win this under William Buick. He was my fancy for the Derby at home and has gone from strength to strength in North America.