Friday 17th & Saturday 18th December 2021: Thyme to Shine in Long Walk Hurdle

There is Grade 1 hurdle and fiercely competitive handicap chase action this week, all ably supported by a Listed race card on the Flat at Lingfield.

Most eyes are on Ascot over the weekend which is where we start on Friday, a couple of young up-and-coming types having taken my eye.

Friday 17th December 2021

1.45 Ascot (Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase) - RED ROOKIE

It would be no surprise if, in this two-mile novices’ race, Emma Lavelle’s six-year-old Red Rookie had near halved in price to usurp Brave Seasca as favourite by Saturday afternoon.

The son of Black Sam Bellamy was handed just two bumpers and three hurdle races in his earlier career, winning three times, always running with credit and improving all the while.

On his first chase race he took an even bigger step up the ladder and still has even more to offer yet. Having not jumped the penultimate fence too well at Chepstow he ran on very well and was only just denied, that form looking good in the context of this race.

Brave Seasca and One True King appear to be best of the rest.

3.30 Ascot (Championship National Hunt Flat Race - Listed Race) - HENRI THE SECOND

In the bumper that closes Friday’s card at Ascot, unless there is some very serious improvement from Authorised Speed, we can concentrate on three runners in Henri The Second, Top Dog and Hugos New Horse.

Top Dog has run second on both bumper starts to date and should improve again now. Emma Lavelle’s runner clearly has talent, but has put a lot into those runner-up efforts in big fields meaning it’s very plausible that we know his level.

There is more potential perhaps in Paul Nicholls’ Hugos New Horse. A winner first time up at Worcester, he can perhaps prove to be better then Top Dog now or in time, though may have to give best to his stablemate this time.

That horse is Henri The Second, another first time out winner for Nicholls. In this case, he won at Chepstow not only by over eight lengths but also very comfortably. He looks the best of this bunch and is worth a bet.

Saturday 18th December 2021

1.25 Lingfield (Handicap) - MOHAREB

Disappointingly, only four runners have been declared for this Class 2, six-furlong handicap but that doesn’t stop us finding a handy bet.

Assuming that these sprinters all want to go a decent pace and ensure the event isn’t overly tactical, then there’s plenty of value in Mick Appleby’s Mohareb.

Looking out of form lately at a glance, Mohareb’s handicap mark is back to a very usable one. A closer look however reveals that the surface matters so much to him.

His last four runs on Tapeta have seen him run 6679, though at Lingfield he has won and finished second during the same period. He can prove to have too much at these weights for Fizzy Feet and Soldier’s Minute for a crack all-weather team.

2.00 Lingfield (Quebec Stakes - Listed Race) - GARDEN PARADISE

Felix ran very well just in behind Pyledriver and Harrovian in a course and distance event at this level recently, and so deserves his place as favourite. He was rather dragged along by two quality runners though and won’t necessarily improve from it.

Sir Michael Stoute’s old favourite Regal Reality still has some ability and could roll back the years with a big performance, while United Front is another with talent and rates as a big danger. The one I like however is Garden Paradise.

On a hat-trick now for the James Tate team, the four-year-old daughter of Night Of Thunder is improving in absolute lumps now and it’s interesting that she has scored over 1m6f and 1m4f reverently. Now going over 1m2f, she can use her speed even more and can win once again under Luke Morris. 

2.25 Ascot (Long Walk Hurdle - Grade 1) - THYME HILL

The Long Walk should go a long way to deciding the staying hurdle pecking order for this season, and it could go to a horse which has always looked capable of reaching the very top.

Once described as the best novice around and then later winning the Liverpool Hurdle, Thyme Hill is a Grade 1 scorer and a quality animal and should be better than this bunch.

Buzz is the likely favourite for Nicky Henderson, but he along with Champ and Thomas Darby should really be left fighting for places behind Philip Hobbs’ star.

Paisley Park was a great champion but doesn’t look up to it anymore, while Ronald Pump also needs to jump up a level.

2.35 Lingfield (Handicap) - DEAL A DOLLAR

Another Class 2 race at Lingfield, one in which Pivoine, Protected Guest and Midnights Legacy are all very close on the books and can run well. The standout however is Deal A Dollar and he gets the vote.

David Simcock’s runner has been off since last summer but if he’s ready to go then he can prove to be well handicapped. The trip and the Lingfield surface should suit him and it may just be that he proves to be good value on his comeback appearance.

3.00 Ascot (Silver Cup Handicap Chase - Listed Race) - GRAND SANCY 

One noticeable thing about this excellent three-mile handicap chase is that many of the runners have already shown us their best form.

With that in mind, it could prove profitable to seek out that one younger runner with potential and the standout in that category is Grand Sancy.

Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old already has the form in the book to put it up to the likes of Belami Des Pictons, Cloth Cap, Jerrysback and Regal Encore at the weights, meaning the likelihood of more progress makes him a cracking bet.

Saturday 11th & Sunday 12th December 2021 - Take the Easy Way to Betting Glory

It’s a huge weekend for jumping action as Cheltenham hosts the Racing Post Gold Cup on day two of the International meeting. But the better bets may come elsewhere as we head off to Doncaster, Newcastle and even Hong Kong in search of profit.

Saturday 11th December 2021 

11.50 Doncaster (Novices’ Hurdle) – TOP OF THE BILL

We have an early start on Saturday morning as Doncaster’s opener provides our first betting opportunity of the weekend in the 2m3½f Novices’ Hurdle.

After winning under champion-elect Brian Hughes last time out, Gredin will be well fancied again for the same rider although his penalty makes him vulnerable.

Nicky Henderson’s Westwood Ryder is bound to be backed too, but the solid one in the line-up is Top Of The Bill for the Nigel Twiston-Davies camp and he gets our vote.

He made a solid enough start to hurdling at Lingfield when fourth of six in November and he’s better than that. He could prove to be good value, with Ask The Doc also considered.

2.05 Doncaster (Handicap Hurdle) – TAKE IT EASY

Staying at sunny Donny for the extended two-mile handicap hurdle, I very much like the look of Pam Sly’s runner Take It Easy.

Since March his form figures have been 311212 and it seems we haven’t seen the best of him yet. He was a little disappointing when a beaten favourite last time out at Huntingdon, but before that at Wetherby he was impressive in beating Tommy’s Oscar and natural improvement from that race to now would see him comfortably ahead of his handicap mark.

Tommy’s Oscar challenges once again and is next best on my list, while Sonigino is fancied for Paul Nicholls and Bryony Frost who looks close on the numbers with Lucky One and Geromino in what is a competitive enough heat.

2.20 Newcastle (Conditions Stakes) – COLTRANE 

Newcastle’s all-weather card is largely unremarkable but for a couple of events that need to be watched.

Some good novices line up over a mile with one or two possessing the potential for decent things next year, while this two-mile conditions race is worth £10,000 to the winner and is a qualifier for the £1 million All-Weather Championships Finals day at Easter back at Gosforth Park.

Rainbow Dreamer has the form in the bag to land this race and we’d never doubt Alan King, but the horse isn’t really getting any better and could be vulnerable to an improver.

The one I like best of all at the odds is Andrew Balding’s Coltrane. Having won the Melrose last year, it was always obvious he had talent and despite some problems he is bang in form now after a staying-on second at Kempton last month.

He’ll have kicked on from that and will appreciate the more demanding nature of this track, making him on balance the most likely winner. Island Brave and Northumberland Plate hero Nicholas T are also obvious candidates.

2.40 Doncaster (Summit Juvenile Hurdle – Grade 2) – MAGISTRATO 

While the Triumph Hurdle trial over at Cheltenham is just a Class 2 affair this weekend, the Summit featuring similar types is a quality Grade 2 race and it may be one for the Nicholls/Frost team.

Their Magistrato ran to a good level in France behind Porticello and won nicely on his British debut at Chepstow in October. He wasn’t at his best last time out at Cheltenham, but that has only served to make him a backable price in this contest and we should look to take advantage.

Given that he’s getting weight from the talented Too Friendly and from Knight Salute too, he looks a solid bet in this one at what will hopefully be 3/1 and over.

3.42 Deauville (Prix Luthier – Listed Race) – INTUITIVE 

Unfortunately, there are no prices listed at all at the time of writing for this Listed race in France, but Intuitive is stuck up on the proviso that he is handed reasonable odds when the market eventually opens up.

There are two Godolphin runners in the eleven-strong field and British representation coming from not just our horse, but also David O’Meara’s Azano.

It’s competitive and the selection, trained by Simon and Ed Crisford, is drawn a little wider than ideal but he is the best horse in this race, loves the surface, is fit and in form and should be good enough to take them all down.

Sunday 12th December 2021

6.00 Sha Tin (Hong Kong Vase – Group 1) – PYLEDRIVER

There are four Group 1 races on Sha Tin’s massive card early on Sunday morning UK time, with the mile-and-a-half Hong Kong Vase being our first port of call.

Japanese trained runner Glory Vase may well be a strong favourite and there’s little doubt that the six-year-old has some top-class form.

Aidan O’Brien’s Mogul is also in the line-up, but really at this precise moment in their careers they may just not be up to the level of Coronation Cup winner Pyledriver who should be backed to score for William Muir and Chris Grassick.

A Great Voltigeur winner as well as a Coronation Cup scorer, Pyledriver is top level and was given a lovely pipe-opener when he landed a Listed race at Lingfield four weeks away giving away 7lbs to some nice types.

He’ll be in tip-top conditions for this event, will love the conditions and in fact this very race has been his long-term target for some time.

8.30 Sha Tin (Hong Kong Cup – Group 1) – DUBAI HONOUR

William Haggas is a simply brilliant trainer, so when he takes an improving type all the way to Asia for a race, even one worth £1.6 million to the winner, we have to sit up and take notice.

His Dubai Honour has had a wonderful 2021. Fourth in the Britannia before winning a valuable handicap at Newmarket, he reached new heights when being thrown straight into and landing a Group 2 at Deauville while he finished the domestic season with an impressive second in the Champion Stakes.

This mile-and-a-quarter is perfect for him and the feeling is that he’s been running well despite soft ground rather than because of it. If that’s the case, he can reach a new level here.

Loves Only You, Lei Papale and familiar faces Mac Swiney and Bolshoi Ballet are his main rivals.

Saturday 4th December 2021: Nube Negra to Pour it On

It’s a big Grade 1 weekend over the jumps in both England and Ireland. The latter hosts the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown on Sunday, while Sandown stages both the Henry VIII Novices’ and the much-anticipated Tingle Creek Chase on Saturday afternoon.

We begin there before moving on to Aintree where the Grand National fences are given an airing and there could be some Gold Cup clues to found too in the Many Clouds Chase.

1.50 Sandown (Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – Grade 1) – MINELLA DRAMA

A fascinating renewal, one in which speed may well play a big part over two miles if the weather and the decent ground both hold up.

The short-priced favourite is Dan Skelton’s Third Time Lucki who is now a perfect two from two over fences following a simple win in the Grade 2 during the November meeting at Cheltenham.

On that form alone he is the rightful favourite and he could prove tough to beat. Before that he made a successful chasing debut when impressive back at Cheltenham in October, but Sandown presents a slightly different challenge for him.

Dan Skelton often has his horses ready to go and so while there should be some natural improvement to come, he may not take the giant leap forward many expect which just may leave the door open.

Sneaking through it could be Donald McCain’s Minella Drama. The excellent Brian Hughes has come south for a good book of rides but is of course primarily at Sandown to ride this one.

After finishing his hurdle career with a second to My Drogo, he took to chasing in brilliant style when winning easily at Uttoxeter at the end of October. I reckon his second run, when a close runner-up to the reopposing War Lord at Carlisle, just came a bit quick for him and he is much better than that.

His overall ability doesn’t look to be too far behind Third Time Lucki, if at all, and he may just have the speed to serve it up to the favourite and put him under pressure. He’s certainly very good value at 6/1 and bigger at the time of writing. Edwardstone has some good form and is also in the reckoning.

2.25 Sandown (Tingle Creek Chase – Grade 1) – NUBE NEGRA

This time the big dog in the market is Willie Mullins’ Chacun Pour Soi who could yet go off at odds-on in this belting two-mile contest.

The winner of this will be a strong fancy for March’s Champion Chase and it was in that race this year that Chacun Pour Soi was beaten at odds-on by Put The Kettle On and Nube Negra, with the last named perhaps well placed to beat him again.

Dan Skelton’s runner is absolutely top class and crucially there is little doubt that he has more improvement to come yet.

After beating Altior in the Desert Orchid last Christmas he was left off the track in preparation for the Champion Chase, the sort of routine now all too familiar with British jumps trainers. It may be then that he was a little undercooked for the big one at Cheltenham where he was only beaten a half-length, with his better form coming more recently.

On his seasonal return at the November Meeting, he beat Politologue and Put The Kettle On very easily and with three weeks between the races he should be 100% now.

He has the class and the speed for this race and can now put in a career best, one that should be good enough to see off his high-profile main rival.

Paul Nicholls runs two of his own here with Greaneteen probably the best of them, Bryony Frosts’s mount being the one we fancy to nick third.

2.05 Aintree (Many Clouds Chase – Grade 2) – IMPERIAL AURA

Most of the talk this week has been about Nicky Henderson electing yet again not to run his stars, in this case Champ while Shishkin was also ruled out of the Tingle Creek. We’ll choose to say nothing more about that.

Champ’s omission is a disappointment, but there is a good value bet to be had here anyway in the shape of Kim Bailey’s Imperial Aura. Many will worry seeing form figures of UP-F, but that doesn’t tell the full story.

He was going OK when falling behind A Plus Tard at Haydock with the race still a good pipe-opener for him, while he bled from the nose when pulling up at Cheltenham.

Before all that he was the epitome of improvement. Second to Pym and then to Simply The Betts in a race that produced two subsequent Festival handicap winners, him included, he went on to win a Listed race and a Grade 2 in good style this time last year and can reach the very top.

Protektorat is favourite for Dan Skelton, but he’s far from infallible and worth taking on at the odds. The aforementioned Simply The Betts is next on the list, it will be fascinating to see how Tiger Roll gets on while Native River is still class but doesn’t have time on his side.

2.40 Aintree (Becher Handicap Chase – Grade 3) – SNOW LEOPARDESS

We’re going over the Grand National fences for the Becher Chase and the event has attracted a competitive field of 22 runners.

There may be some scrimmaging for position early on in that case and in a race of this nature you’re always taking a chance, but even as one of the market leaders there is some value at 5/1 and over about the grey mare Snow Leopardess.

Charlie Longsdon’s runner was a close second in the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day last year before finishing fourth to Galvin at the Festival.

She began this season by taking care of Windsor Avenue in fine style at Bangor, jumping very well all the way which is an important factor here and winning in the style of a horse that shouldn’t be bothered by a 5lb increase in the weights.

Mac Tottie is another who could prove to be well handicapped, while track favourite and two-time Becher runner-up Kimberlite Candy was also considered.

Friday 26th & Saturday 27th November 2021: Fighting Fifth to Be a Royal Encounter

On a busy weekend of horse racing action, the ever-popular Paisley Park looks to win again in Friday’s Long Distance Hurdle.

He has a battle on his hands with Thomas Darby, Lisnagar Oscar and Indefatigable in the line-up so we’ll be leaving that one alone, though we do have seven other value bets to go through across two brilliant days.

Friday 26th November 2021

12.40 Newbury (The Berkshire Novices’ Chase – Grade 2) – PIC D’ORHY

There are just the four runners for this 2½-mile Grade 2 novice chase, but there is still some value to be had.

The likely favourite is Alex Hales’ Millers Bank after his easy chase debut win at Aintree at odds of 80/1. That was a good performance, as was the success of Tea Clipper on his first chase start at Chepstow although he has to carry 7lbs more, but I feel Paul Nicholls’ runner Pic D’Orhy has been overlooked by a few.

True, he’s already had five goes over fences, but after a slow start, a bit of hurdling and some time off, he is a different prospect now and proved it with an impressive win at Ffos Las last month.

He made all that day against three rivals to win easily and there is no doubt that he has more to come.

12.55 Lingfield (Handicap) – ENFRANCHISE

The consistent Trevolli and Bearwith will be popular in the market and both have strong place chances, but the hope is that their presence simply allows us to grab a tasty price about Mark Johnston’s Enfranchise.

The three-year-old is having only her fourth start in this race, with her win at Pontefract on good to firm ground holding up very well in the context of the other form on offer here, especially at the weights.

She was sent off favourite for a decent race at Newcastle last time but seemed to get rather tired on the Tapeta in trying to lead the field, but with that experience behind her and on this quicker surface, she may be able to bounce out from stall 2, hit the front and be very hard to catch.

Saturday 27th November 2021

2.25 Newbury (Intermediate Handicap Hurdle – Listed Race) – CAPTAIN MORGS

Nicky Henderson’s Captain Morgs may have had a touch of luck last week when rival Garry Clermont veered at the last flight allowing him a simple path through to victory at Ascot. For his part, he did win the race with very little fuss and that visual impression is backed up by the fact that he is being turned out again quickly.

A close look at the form of his seven hurdle races to date reveals a nice pattern. The five-year-old appears to be a horse with lots more to give from this point and he certainly has the speed to kick on where it counts at the business end of a race.

He, in what is yet another small field, may well be able to make that speed count and has certainly been undervalued and overpriced given that there are only four horses going for this prize.

Soaring Glory is topweight and likely favourite for Jonjo O’Neill, he’s also the main rival to the selection, with Onemorefortheroad fancied to see of Gowel Road at the back.

3.00 Newbury (Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase – Grade 3) – EKLAT DE RIRE

It looks like a cracking renewal of the Ladbrokes Trophy, this hugely valuable 3¼-mile chase throwing together 21 high-class runners including last year’s winner Cloth Cap.

Jonjo O’Neill’s very smart stayer is once again fancied to go well after a decent prep run at Cheltenham, while there has been a ton of money during the week for the Cheveley Park runner Ontheropes, trained by Willie Mullins.

That horse has form with Monkfish and is obviously smart, however there may have been a right old plot organised here with Eklat De Rire and he is taken to win.

Henry De Bromhead is about as a good a jumps trainer as you are likely to see, while jockey Rachael Blackmore is having the time of her life in the saddle.

As for the horse; he’s an improver anyway but also won last time out when finishing tired at Wexford, something he’s been given more than four weeks to recover from. His form stands up to scrutiny and he’s not done yet, he jumps well and basically has no obvious weaknesses given the better ground and his handicap mark.

3.15 Newcastle (Fighting Fifth Hurdle – Grade 1) – SCEAU ROYAL

On the face of it, this race is all about last year’s winner and 2020 Champion Hurdle heroine Epatante. She remains high class of course and she gets 7lbs from the boys, but she’ll need to be at her absolute best I feel and that is not guaranteed.

Instead of even thinking about backing her at a short price, the value really is in Sceau Royal for the Alan King yard.

On the forecast good ground (it’s cold and dry in Newcastle this week), he may have the ideal conditions to prove that he’s a Grade 1 type over hurdles.

A good chaser, he returned to the smaller obstacles to win a Listed race at Kempton before taking the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle easily last time and he definitely has what it takes. Monmiral was the other on the shortlist.

5.00 Wolverhampton (Nursery Handicap) – AL JADDAF

We’re taking in a little bit of Tapeta action at Wolverhampton on Saturday evening too, as Godolphin and Charlie Appleby show no signs of wanting their amazing year to end prematurely.

They have Al Jaddaf in this extended one-mile nursery, who after a gelding operation can properly get back to business.

He looked the type in August and September to get up to a mark in the mid to high 80’s before disappointing, but now he’s had his mind put firmly on racing he can make his actual rating of 78 look generous.

Ammolite is a danger, as are Park Street and Superior Force.

5.30 Wolverhampton (Novice Stakes) – DARAKAH

This one is a little chancier, but if going off at 3/1 or above there may be some value in Charlie Hills’ debutant.

Darakah is a very well-bred filly of Shadwell’s and is sure to have a decent amount of ability. The point here is that those with experience forecast to be near the top of the betting do not set a high standard at all, meaning it won’t take much to win the race.

It would be disappointing if she didn’t go well on her racecourse bow, with fellow newcomer Misscall also in the mix.

Friday 19th & Saturday 20th November 2021: Goshen to Go the Right Way

It’s a mixed bag this week, with Flat and jumps action coming across Friday and Saturday’s racing.

We have seven very interesting, potentially great value selections across the cards too as trainer Gary Moore looks to make the most of enigmatic star hurdler Goshen’s apparent need to go right-handed.

Friday 19th November 2021

1.00 Sakhir (Bahrain International Trophy – Group 3) – ZAKOUSKI

There’s more big money still available on the international Flat racing scene, as these Group 3 runners go over a mile-and-quarter for just about as much money as the Cheltenham Gold Cup runners were chasing back in March.

There’s a first prize of around £262,000, and it can go the way of 2021’s undisputed top dogs Godolphin, Charlie Appleby and William Buick.

Their Zakouski has always been held in high regard and despite some problems along the way, the five-year-old son of Shamardal has won six races out of 9 included a pair of Group 2’s.

He made a terrific reappearance at Newmarket three weeks ago to win his second Ben Marshall Stakes in very easy fashion, he has strong form with Group 1 types and looks booked for a career best which would be good enough.

The Boys in Blue also have classy French runner Magny Cours and former top-class type Barney Roy who both hold place chances, while Fev Rover is a very fine filly and can go well once more.

2.40 Ascot (Handicap Hurdle) – CAPTAIN MORGS

The likes of Leoncavallo, Garry Clermont and Method Madness can all go well in this two-mile handicap hurdle, but Captain Morgs looks to be potentially the best handicapped horse of the lot and so is supported.

Not very many Nicky Henderson runners with genuine talent are rated 125, so one has to think there is a lot more this horse can give and the signs are all there.

His only hurdle win came over this course and distance, while he did well to run third at Cheltenham in October over a trip that was undoubtedly too far for him. A repeat of that would give him a chance, but the very much expected improvement over this trip would make him sufficiently well in at the weights.

Saturday 20th November 2021

12.35 Lingfield (Fillies’ Handicap) – TAAWFAN

After her demolition job when beating Godolphin horse Toromona by 12 lengths at Wolverhampton 40 days ago, it was no surprise to see William Haggas’ Lady Rockstar at the top of the betting.

She has a top-class trainer, terrific form, the potential for further improvement and is ridden by Derby-winning jockey Adam Kirby, so there’s nothing to dislike at first.

That said, she’s been given a mark of 85 now which isn’t overly generous at first glance, a rating gathered by winning on a very different surface (Tapeta) so there’s always the chance she will find things a bit quick here.

She also has to come from gate 8, while just inside her in 6 is the more suitable Taawfan at a much bigger price.

Owen Burrows’ four-year-old filly is rated only 79 yet has for my money already run to a mark much higher than that, while she will also appreciate the conditions at Lingfield.

Ryan Moore has been booked to ride and he’s exactly the sort of jockey needed to ensure we get the best out of the filly. Isola Rossa also made the shortlist.

1.10 Lingfield (Conditions Stakes) – DOCUMENTING

Moore could be on for a quick double at Lingfield, something he’s done before, with Kevin Frost’s Documenting in the seven-furlong conditions race.

It would be fair to say that the eight-year-old isn’t getting any quicker, but on the balance of his form, even recent form, he should be too good for a field containing Lord Of The Lodge, Highland Dress and Spycatcher.

2.25 Haydock (Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3) – BASS ROCK

It’s a fascinating Betfair Hurdle with 16 runners declared, all in with some kind of chance on the book and all fighting for an impressive £100,000 prize fund.

While it’s hard to be certain in a race as competitive as this, at least we know that we are likely to get the best out of the genuine contenders and one of those undoubtedly is Sandy Thomson’s Bass Rock.

Bass Rock has had a couple of breathing operations in his career, but he is seemingly always improving and comes here on the back of an impressive-looking success at Carlisle where he beat great yardstick Teescomponents Lad. He’s fit, only a five-year-old, and brings very strong form into the race.

The other horse in the field to have recently beaten Teescomponents Lad is Jonjo O’Neill’s Flight Deck. His win at Wetherby wasn’t as impressive, but it puts him on my shortlist especially when the horse that connects these two challengers won on Thursday.

2.40 Ascot (Ascot Hurdle – Grade 2) – GOSHEN

After his past Cheltenham shenanigans, much has been made of Goshen’s temperament. Not many doubt his class and ability however, while his trainer Gary Moore has been adamant that he prefers to go right-handed and so after missing his intended race at Wincanton he now tackles Ascot which should be perfect for him.

He’s up against Buzz here, a short-priced favourite of Nicky Henderson’s who gets 6lbs from the selection, but if Goshen brings his A-game then he really will be hard to beat.

He was a wide-margin winner both here and at Sandown a couple of seasons ago, before performing a complete destruction job on his Kingwell Hurdle field at Wincanton in February.

If he gets to something like that form again, not a far-fetched ask considering his age and that he can actually still get a lot better yet, then he can land this at odds that just like at Wincanton, can be made to look too generous.

3.00 Haydock (Betfair Chase – Grade 1) – ROYALE PAGAILLE

This selection for the big Grade 1 at Haydock is a little chancier for a couple of reasons, but given the price we can afford it.

Firstly, Royale Pagaille is not a certain runner, as connections think the ground may be a bit too quick, but if he does run then he will be a big price against some of the best in the business.

The other reason is that on top of predicting how well Royale Pagaille can run, we have to also expect one or two others to not be at their best.

Gold Cup runner-up A Plus Tard is one of them, but history tells us he often needs the run first time out, while a constant in this race, Bristol De Mai, is another but again he is just a tad regressive which is now to be expected.

Waiting Patiently is an interesting runner and can reach the required level, while so in theory can Imperial Aura who is heading the right way.

If the classy Royale Pagaille is allowed to take his chance however, that tells us connections think the ground is OK as they won’t risk him if it’s not, so he’s worth a bet at around 8/1+.

Saturday 13th November 2021: Harrovian to School Them at Lingfield

As the form only just begins to settle down at the beginning of the jumps season proper, many of our betting opportunities still come on the Flat where we know far more about the current well-being of each contender.

It was a great weekend for us at the Breeders’ Cup last week, and while this time around the races are less auspicious, they are still there for the taking as we get stuck into all-weather action at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, along with a little jumping action at Wetherby.

Nb: For jumps racing see my coverage of the November Meeting here.

11.40 Lingfield (Maiden Stakes) – UNTOLD MYSTERY

Charlie Appleby has had the most amazing year and luckily, we’ve gone along for the ride on many occasions.

It can’t all be about Adayar, Hurricane Lane and Native Trail though, as even his supposed lesser-lights can often be worth backing.

He has a chance in both divisions of the opening mile-and-a-quarter maiden stakes at Lingfield on Saturday, with Untold Mystery interesting especially if he is reasonably well supported in the market.

Army Sergeant ran OK on debut for Saeed bin Suroor, but at 22/1 not much was expected and so a huge improvement also doesn’t seem very likely at this stage.

Golden Disc is in a similar position, while Three Start has the best form after two runs including a runner-up effort on the soft at Redcar. On breeding this isn’t guaranteed to suit him, which leaves the door open for Untold Mystery.

His debut at Nottingham wasn’t quite what was hoped for either, but it’s up there with those of his rivals and should he just reach the level now that was expected of him on his first start he’d have enough to win this under William Buick who is now back from the States.

12.10 Lingfield (Maiden Stakes) – INDEPENDENT ACT

Park Street is the one with form here, and though improvement could now be forthcoming after a gelding operation, it isn’t guaranteed and he doesn’t set the highest form standard for the debut runners to chase.

The two to concentrate on represent Godolphin. Saeed bin Suroor’s Game Master will be supported under Hollie Doyle, but based on the trainer’s debut runners, those of sire Postponed and even based on the admittedly good winning debut at this track of dam Sundrop he wouldn’t be reaching the sort of level to overly trouble the typical Charlie Appleby debutant unless he’s well above average.

Independent Act is that runner. He is out of a Manduro mare, so this trip looks ideal, while he is also a Dubawi meaning the quick nature of the track should also suit.

Should he be fit enough to do himself justice first time out, which is almost always the case with runners from this stable, then he is likely to be good enough to challenge.

3.05 Lingfield (Rose Stakes – Listed Race) – GOOD EFFORT

In the first of two Listed races at Lingfield to round off their card, it could be worth sticking with last year’s Rose Stakes winner Good Effort to double up.

Ismail Mohammed’s runner was landing a five-timer when taking this race twelve months ago, but his form hasn’t dropped overall and in fact he was a winner at Deauville in August.

It’s best that we draw a line under his disappointing run at Belmont in New York last month, but the fact they event sent him all that way to challenge for a Grade 2 shows you what they think of this horse.

He still has it, and his speed around Lingfield should be too much for Bahrain Pride, who could surprise, Fivethousandtoone who remains capable, Exalted Angel and The Last Lion who returns after fully five years off the track having had an ultimately unsuccessful spell on the stud roster.

Harry’s Bar is an obvious danger and is well represented in the market, but may just not have the speed to live with the selection if all goes well under Jim Crowley.

3.10 Wetherby (Handicap Hurdle) – FIRST IMPRESSION

We make a little foray to the jumps for this Class 3 handicap hurdle, one in which we can take advantage of a well handicapped and fit runner in the shape of First Impression.

John Quinn’s runner was a course and distance winner last November as a juvenile before finishing a good fifth in a strong race at Ascot thereafter.

He’s been running on the Flat since then and in fact was a strong second to Dubai Souq on unsuitable soft ground at Redcar just under two weeks ago.

He’s fit, he has Brian Hughes up top, he’s well handicapped and he is already proven over the track and trip, so there’s nothing not to like.

In terms of his key rivals, Saint Arvans and Champagne City stand out from the others. Both have solid profiles in the context of this race, but ultimately aren’t as far ahead of the assessors as the selection which is the main consideration in a handicap race.

3.40 Lingfield (Churchill Stakes – Listed Race) – HARROVIAN

This is all about the return of Pyledriver. William Muir and Chris Grassick’s four-year-old has some big international targets ahead of him, making this all about prep.

A good winner of the Great Voltigeur last season, he took down Al Aasy in the Group 1 Coronation Cup back in June and while that is obviously top-class form, he does have challenges to overcome.

He can’t be 100% wound-up for this you’d have thought, he is also likely to need more of a test than 1¼ miles around Lingfield. He carries a 7lb penalty as well which is nothing to scoff at and he also drifted in the market as soon as prices were released.

The one who may take advantage is Harrovian. The Gosdens, both with Frankie Dettori and today’s jockey Rab Havlin up top, have often judged such races at Lingfield to perfection.

Harrovian himself is no mug either. A one-length third to Solid Stone in Group 3 company this year was followed-up with a win in a strong conditions race at Doncaster where he beat Sinjaari off level weights.

There’s more to come from him and he can reach 110+ for sure, something that would leave Pyledriver needing to effectively run to a mark of 118 which is far from guaranteed in these circumstances.

7.00 Wolverhampton (Conditions Stakes) – WEDDING DANCE

A small but interesting conditions race over seven furlongs, one in which Charlie Appleby has yet another outstanding contender.

His Wedding Dance was climbing the ladder quickly last season, finishing a close runner-up in France at Group 3 level before encountering a problem.

After nearly 14 months off the track, her form appeared to have held when she returned at Newmarket with a decent sixth in Listed company, with natural improvement from that race putting her in the clear here.

Tomouh is consistent and may once again run well, while Rising Star may go off favourite and can also challenge.

Friday 5th & Saturday 6th November 2021: Breeders’ Cup Special

Although the jumps season is about to get into full swing, the worldwide Flat season is rounded off by what looks like a fabulous two days of action at Del Mar for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup.

We have tons of information across both days in California, as well as some from the last day of Flat turf action at Doncaster.

Friday 5th November 2021

On Future Stars Friday Hierarchy may prove to be too big in the Juvenile Turf Sprint and Koala Princess is interesting in the Fillies Turf, but these three stand out more.

10.30 Del Mar (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – Grade 1) – HIDDEN CONNECTION

The unbeaten Echo Zulu is likely to go off favourite here, but the money is beginning to come in for Hidden Connection and it’s easy to see why.

These runners, and many more in this contest in years gone by, have followed a similar path of progression from race two to race three (or to their first Grade 1), and in the case of Hidden Connection there is enough in her profile to suggest she can improve past her rivals.

She simply destroyed her Grade 3 field in the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs and looks more than ready for this test.

11.50 Del Mar (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – Grade 1) – CORNICHE

Champagne winner Jack Christopher is the big dog here on known form, while Commandperformance remains solid.

It’s all eyes on Bob Baffert this year though, and regardless of past mishaps he will still be in there pitching for many of these prizes.

He saddles Pinehurst, who is not without a chance, and Corniche who is the selection. A good winner of the American Pharoah Stakes, Corniche would have been a confident choice had he not been drawn out wide, but this race can often be a fight to the line and its down the stretch where I think his qualities can show.

12.30 Del Mar (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – Grade 1) – MODERN GAMES

The likes of Dakota Gold, Glounthaune and Dubawi Legend are all in with place chances here. Charlie Appleby has had the most wonderful year though and he holds the key to this race.

His Albahr has as much chance as any of the aforementioned runners, but is comfortably behind his stablemate Modern Games on form and ability and it’s William Buick’s choice who gets the nod.

Experienced enough to handle the conditions, Modern Games is a strong traveller, will love the quick conditions and his latest Group 3 win showed him up to be potentially top-class.

Saturday 6th November 2021

Saturday is the big one in California. Bella Sofia has a chance in the Filly & Mare Sprint against champ Gamine, Jackie’s Warrior is a class act in the Sprint if a little too short and Eight Rings can go well at a price in the Dirt Mile. We begin however at Doncaster.

12.55 Doncaster (Gillies Fillies’ Stakes – Listed Race) – BASHKIROVA

William Haggas’s runner Bashkirova is three from three now and improving in lumps. She jumps into Listed company for the first time but won with absolutely no fuss last time and handles soft underfoot conditions just fine.

She may prove to be the class act here, with Glenartney, Zawara, Vesela and Via Sistina all competitive.

2.40 Doncaster (November Handicap – Class 2) – FIRST LIGHT

Traditionally the last big betting race of the season, the November Handicap can go the way of a Gosden runner once again.

This time around there may still be a competitive price to grab about First Light, a double winner with plenty more left to give. Only a three-year-old, he was well beaten in Listed company last time but this is more up his street and he can make a mockery of his handicap mark.

7.40 Del Mar (Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – Grade 1) – EMARAATY ANA

Favourite here should be Wesley Ward’s Golden Pal, but while he was an easy Grade 2 winner last time there are loose threads to pick at.

The horse he beat latest was regressing, while he was also market leader for the Nunthorpe at York when somewhat predictably finishing down the field. Last year’s winner Glass Slippers has a tougher task now, and at the odds I’d much rather be with Emaraaty Ana.

Kevin Ryan’s five-year-old is not only getting better, but quicker. Second in the Nunthorpe before landing the Sprint Cup at Haydock, he is proven at this level and can land another biggie.

8.59 Del Mar (Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf – Grade 1) – OCEAN ROAD

Audarya won this last year and will be pitching again, Love is class but could be going a little backwards, Rougir may want it softer, Loves Only You has chased home Mishriff and War Like Goddess has a great chance.

At prices of around 40/1 however we can take a small chance on Hugo Palmer’s Ocean Road. Thought of as an Oaks filly, she’s never had the right conditions, came back to action with a good prep run last time and is in a race that favours three-year-olds.

10.20 Del Mar (Breeders’ Cup Mile – Grade 1) – MASTER OF THE SEAS

Once again, Charlie Appleby holds the key. Space Blues looks made for this race, although as a perceived seven-furlong specialist he still needs to prove he can stay.

I couldn’t put anyone off backing him and he is the choice of Buick, however it’s hard to ignore the call of Master Of The Seas at double-figure prices.

He won the Craven from an impossible position before just being touched off in a strong 2000 Guineas. After an enforced break, he was an unlucky-in-running third in the Joel Stakes as the Newmarket track record was broken and it’s his turn of foot that could be decisive as he reaches the stage of his career at which he is likely to peak.

11.00 Del Mar (Breeders’ Cup Distaff – Grade 1) – MALATHAAT

Letruska has done precious little wrong and deserves to be favourite, however I’ve been with Malathaat all year and there’s no reason at all to ditch her now.

Although she stays and battles well, her speed figures in the States have progressed for every one of her seven runs. The Kentucky Oaks winner is great value to prove she is a champion.

11.40 Del Mar (Breeders’ Cup Turf – Grade 1) – YIBIR

A whole bunch of these high-profile horses could prove capable; Domestic Spending, Tarnawa, Rockemperor, Walton Street, Teona et al.

Yibir however may be different class. A Great Voltigeur winner and an impressive scorer in New York for Charlie Appleby, his connections thought during the spring trials that he may be up there in ability with Adayar and Hurricane Lane.

His gelding operation has been the making of him and he can reach a new high.

12.40 Del Mar (Breeders’ Cup Classic – Grade 1) – ESSENTIAL QUALITY 

The biggest event of them all and Brad Cox is in the enviable position of having the two market leaders.

Last year’s Dirt Mile winner Knicks Go has been imperious at around nine furlongs this year, though his trainer thinks he’ll stay. Cox did mention that he wants Knicks Go to break well and hit the front, feeling that will give him the best chance of victory.

Speed figures for the Classic however are perennially way below other well-regarded ratings. The reason is that the race takes some getting, and it’s the powerfully-built Belmont Stakes winner Essential Quality who can excel – his teammate may even set it up for him.

Juvenile winner at last year’s Breeders’ Cup, the Godolphin colt finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby, covering around 8½ lengths more than the potentially disqualified winner Medina Spirit for a 1¼-length defeat after being bumped out wide. He went on to win the Belmont over 1½ miles before battling all the way to the line to land the Travers Stakes.

He has reportedly strengthened up even more, gets a weight pull which in his case will be very handy, is a proven stayer (by Tapit) and has the form in the book.

He is undoubtedly a better horse than Medina Spirit, who is now four gates wider, while he has also beaten Hot Rod Charlie at Grade 1 level more than once and those two are also in the first four in the betting.